Away team
Pittsburgh Penguins
48.0%
Fair American
+108
Fair decimal
2.08
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Ottawa Senators prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for December 31, 2026
NHL matchup
Pittsburgh Penguins at Ottawa Senators
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for December 31, 2026.
December 31, 2026
· 1:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Ottawa Senators at 52.0%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Ottawa Senators
52.0%
Fair American
-108
Fair decimal
1.92
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Dec 31, 2026.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 5-3
- Net units
- 2.59
- ROI
- 32.4%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 4-4
- Net units
- 0.85
- ROI
- 10.7%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 4
- Record
- 2-2
- Net units
- -0.38
- ROI
- -9.5%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 5
- Record
- 3-2
- Net units
- 0.10
- ROI
- 1.9%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 2
- Record
- 1-1
- Net units
- -0.17
- ROI
- -8.7%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 5-3
- Net units
- 0.63
- ROI
- 7.8%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 31. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Pittsburgh Penguins
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
62:36 together · 7 games
- Corsi for / against
- 62 / 60
- Fenwick for / against
- 44 / 50
- Corsi share
- 50.8%
- Fenwick share
- 46.8%
- xG for / against
- 3.72 / 4.52
Defense pair
83:42 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 96 / 88
- Fenwick for / against
- 70 / 70
- Corsi share
- 52.2%
- Fenwick share
- 50.0%
- xG for / against
- 3.95 / 5.54
Ottawa Senators
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
39:16 together · 9 games
- Corsi for / against
- 34 / 43
- Fenwick for / against
- 21 / 39
- Corsi share
- 44.2%
- Fenwick share
- 35.0%
- xG for / against
- 1.84 / 2.49
Defense pair
81:43 together · 9 games
- Corsi for / against
- 98 / 76
- Fenwick for / against
- 67 / 46
- Corsi share
- 56.3%
- Fenwick share
- 59.3%
- xG for / against
- 4.60 / 2.72
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Expected starter unavailable.
Ottawa Senators
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Arturs Silovs
Pittsburgh Penguins · Last start: Oct 24
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 138
- Save %
- 90.6
- Goals allowed
- 13
- Close-range shots %
- 32.6
Jonas Johansson
Ottawa Senators · Last start: Oct 27
2 / 2 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 56
- Save %
- 89.3
- Goals allowed
- 6
- Close-range shots %
- 33.9
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 31, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Pittsburgh Penguins
- xG for / game
- 3.15
- xG against / game
- 3.33
- xG differential / game
- -0.18
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Ottawa Senators
- xG for / game
- 2.85
- xG against / game
- 2.73
- xG differential / game
- 0.12
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 31, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Pittsburgh Penguins
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 57.9
- Corsi share (%)
- 50.9
- Fenwick share (%)
- 50.1
- Faceoff win %
- 46.6
- Penalties / game
- 2.9
Shots / game: 26.5 · Shooting: 9.8% · Avg distance: 31.3 ft
Ottawa Senators
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 56.2
- Corsi share (%)
- 49.4
- Fenwick share (%)
- 48.9
- Faceoff win %
- 52.4
- Penalties / game
- 4.3
Shots / game: 25.3 · Shooting: 10.7% · Avg distance: 31.9 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
PIT
|
Metric |
OTT
|
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Points | 16 |
| 0.458 | Points % | 0.615 |
| 40 | Goals for | 39 |
| 40 | Goals against | 38 |
| 0 | Goal differential | 1 |
| W2 | Current streak | L1 |
Road versus home
|
PIT road
|
Metric |
OTT home
|
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Games | 7 |
| 1 | Wins | 5 |
| 3 | Points | 10 |
| -6 | Goal differential | 1 |
Last 10 games
|
PIT
|
Metric |
OTT
|
|---|---|---|
| 3-6-1 | Record | 6-4-0 |
| 7 | Points | 12 |
| 27 | Goals for | 29 |
| 35 | Goals against | 30 |
| -8 | Goal differential | -1 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
PIT
2 wins
10
games reviewed
OTT
8 wins
Total goals17 – 32
Goal differential
-15
/
+15
Goals per game1.7 / 3.2
Shots per game33.0 / 28.2
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2026 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Ottawa Senators
|
4 - 3 | 38 - 29 | View |
| Feb 2, 2026 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
3 - 2 | 31 - 16 | View |
| Dec 18, 2025 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Ottawa Senators
|
0 - 4 | 24 - 26 | View |
| Mar 30, 2025 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
0 - 1 | 31 - 35 | View |
| Jan 11, 2025 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
5 - 0 | 22 - 29 | View |
| Dec 14, 2024 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Ottawa Senators
|
2 - 3 | 27 - 31 | View |
| Mar 12, 2024 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Ottawa Senators
|
1 - 2 | 35 - 39 | View |
| Dec 23, 2023 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Ottawa Senators
|
4 - 5 | 34 - 26 | View |
| Oct 28, 2023 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
5 - 2 | 26 - 43 | View |
| Mar 20, 2023 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
2 - 1 | 21 - 49 | View |