Forward trio
51:42 together · 5 games
- Corsi for / against
- 49 / 42
- Fenwick for / against
- 36 / 30
- Corsi share
- 53.8%
- Fenwick share
- 54.5%
- xG for / against
- 2.14 / 1.39
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Ottawa Senators prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 26, 2026
NHL matchup
Pittsburgh Penguins at Ottawa Senators
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 26, 2026.
March 26, 2026
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 prediction is not available yet for this game.
View final boxscore
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 26. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Pittsburgh Penguins
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Defense pair
146:54 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 145 / 131
- Fenwick for / against
- 101 / 103
- Corsi share
- 52.5%
- Fenwick share
- 49.5%
- xG for / against
- 7.29 / 7.04
Ottawa Senators
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
90:22 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 75 / 79
- Fenwick for / against
- 54 / 52
- Corsi share
- 48.7%
- Fenwick share
- 50.9%
- xG for / against
- 3.56 / 3.96
Defense pair
114:27 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 124 / 67
- Fenwick for / against
- 92 / 54
- Corsi share
- 64.9%
- Fenwick share
- 63.0%
- xG for / against
- 6.67 / 3.91
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Arturs Silovs
Pittsburgh Penguins · Last start: Mar 24
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 125
- Save %
- 84.0
- Goals allowed
- 20
- Close-range shots %
- 20.0
Linus Ullmark
Ottawa Senators · Last start: Mar 24
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 119
- Save %
- 91.6
- Goals allowed
- 10
- Close-range shots %
- 31.1
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 26, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Pittsburgh Penguins
- xG for / game
- 3.40
- xG against / game
- 3.61
- xG differential / game
- -0.22
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Ottawa Senators
- xG for / game
- 3.64
- xG against / game
- 2.37
- xG differential / game
- 1.28
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 26, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Pittsburgh Penguins
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 58.0
- Corsi share (%)
- 48.2
- Fenwick share (%)
- 47.8
- Faceoff win %
- 46.3
- Penalties / game
- 4.2
Shots / game: 27.8 · Shooting: 13.3% · Avg distance: 31.3 ft
Ottawa Senators
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 62.0
- Corsi share (%)
- 56.7
- Fenwick share (%)
- 57.7
- Faceoff win %
- 53.1
- Penalties / game
- 4.0
Shots / game: 30.8 · Shooting: 11.0% · Avg distance: 30.9 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
PIT
|
Metric |
OTT
|
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Points | 16 |
| 0.458 | Points % | 0.615 |
| 40 | Goals for | 39 |
| 40 | Goals against | 38 |
| 0 | Goal differential | 1 |
| W2 | Current streak | L1 |
Road versus home
|
PIT road
|
Metric |
OTT home
|
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Games | 7 |
| 1 | Wins | 5 |
| 3 | Points | 10 |
| -6 | Goal differential | 1 |
Last 10 games
|
PIT
|
Metric |
OTT
|
|---|---|---|
| 3-6-1 | Record | 6-4-0 |
| 7 | Points | 12 |
| 27 | Goals for | 29 |
| 35 | Goals against | 30 |
| -8 | Goal differential | -1 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
PIT
2 wins
10
games reviewed
OTT
8 wins
Total goals17 – 30
Goal differential
-13
/
+13
Goals per game1.7 / 3.0
Shots per game33.6 / 29.8
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
3 - 2 | 31 - 16 | View |
| Dec 18, 2025 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Ottawa Senators
|
0 - 4 | 24 - 26 | View |
| Mar 30, 2025 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
0 - 1 | 31 - 35 | View |
| Jan 11, 2025 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
5 - 0 | 22 - 29 | View |
| Dec 14, 2024 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Ottawa Senators
|
2 - 3 | 27 - 31 | View |
| Mar 12, 2024 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Ottawa Senators
|
1 - 2 | 35 - 39 | View |
| Dec 23, 2023 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Ottawa Senators
|
4 - 5 | 34 - 26 | View |
| Oct 28, 2023 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
5 - 2 | 26 - 43 | View |
| Mar 20, 2023 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
2 - 1 | 21 - 49 | View |
| Jan 20, 2023 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
1 - 4 | 45 - 44 | View |