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Pittsburgh Penguins vs New York Islanders prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 7, 2027

NHL matchup

Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Islanders

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 7, 2027.

March 7, 2027 · 12:00 PM CST
Away

Pittsburgh Penguins

5-6-1

44.3%
at
Home

New York Islanders

6-4-2

55.7% Model pick
Model V2 pick: New York Islanders at 55.7%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Pittsburgh Penguins logo
Away team

Pittsburgh Penguins

44.3%
Fair American +126
Fair decimal 2.26
Calculate value
New York Islanders logo
Home team

New York Islanders

55.7%
Fair American -126
Fair decimal 1.8
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Mar 7, 2027.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 7. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Pittsburgh Penguins

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

62:36 together · 7 games

xG share45.1%
Corsi for / against
62 / 60
Fenwick for / against
44 / 50
Corsi share
50.8%
Fenwick share
46.8%
xG for / against
3.72 / 4.52
Defense pair

83:42 together · 10 games

xG share41.7%
Corsi for / against
96 / 88
Fenwick for / against
70 / 70
Corsi share
52.2%
Fenwick share
50.0%
xG for / against
3.95 / 5.54
All observed combinations

New York Islanders

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

130:50 together · 10 games

xG share56.0%
Corsi for / against
135 / 93
Fenwick for / against
93 / 69
Corsi share
59.2%
Fenwick share
57.4%
xG for / against
6.37 / 5.00
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Arturs Silovs

Pittsburgh Penguins · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
138
Save %
90.6
Goals allowed
13
Close-range shots %
32.6

Semyon Varlamov

New York Islanders · Last start: Oct 27

4 / 4 appearances covered

Shots faced
92
Save %
89.1
Goals allowed
10
Close-range shots %
40.2
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 7, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Pittsburgh Penguins

xG for / game
3.15
xG against / game
3.33
xG differential / game
-0.18

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

New York Islanders

xG for / game
2.99
xG against / game
3.38
xG differential / game
-0.39

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 7, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Pittsburgh Penguins

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
57.9
Corsi share (%)
50.9
Fenwick share (%)
50.1
Faceoff win %
46.6
Penalties / game
2.9

Shots / game: 26.5 · Shooting: 9.8% · Avg distance: 31.3 ft

New York Islanders

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
55.7
Corsi share (%)
50.5
Fenwick share (%)
50.3
Faceoff win %
56.2
Penalties / game
4.5

Shots / game: 25.5 · Shooting: 11.0% · Avg distance: 33.4 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT
Metric
New York Islanders NYI
11Points14
0.458Points %0.583
40Goals for36
40Goals against32
0Goal differential4
W2Current streakW1
Road versus home
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT road
Metric
New York Islanders NYI home
7Games6
1Wins4
3Points9
-6Goal differential8
Last 10 games
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT
Metric
New York Islanders NYI
3-6-1Record5-3-2
7Points12
27Goals for29
35Goals against30
-8Goal differential-1
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Pittsburgh Penguins PIT 4 wins
10 games reviewed
New York Islanders NYI 6 wins
Total goals38 – 38
Goal differential 0 / 0
Goals per game3.8 / 3.8
Shots per game33.9 / 31.5
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 30, 2026
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Islanders New York Islanders
8 - 3 31 - 23 View
Feb 3, 2026
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Islanders New York Islanders
4 - 5 35 - 23 View
Oct 9, 2025
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
3 - 4 37 - 28 View
Mar 18, 2025
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
4 - 2 38 - 21 View
Dec 29, 2024
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
2 - 3 31 - 41 View
Dec 28, 2024
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Islanders New York Islanders
3 - 6 25 - 34 View
Nov 5, 2024
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Islanders New York Islanders
3 - 4 35 - 26 View
Apr 17, 2024
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Islanders New York Islanders
4 - 5 44 - 32 View
Feb 20, 2024
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
5 - 4 33 - 41 View
Dec 31, 2023
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
1 - 3 38 - 38 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings PIT NYI