Away team
Pittsburgh Penguins
47.0%
Fair American
+113
Fair decimal
2.13
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Dallas Stars prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for November 22, 2026
NHL matchup
Pittsburgh Penguins at Dallas Stars
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for November 22, 2026.
November 22, 2026
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Dallas Stars at 53.0%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Dallas Stars
53.0%
Fair American
-113
Fair decimal
1.89
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Nov 22, 2026.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 5-3
- Net units
- 2.59
- ROI
- 32.4%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 4-4
- Net units
- 0.85
- ROI
- 10.7%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 4
- Record
- 2-2
- Net units
- -0.38
- ROI
- -9.5%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 2-1
- Net units
- 0.09
- ROI
- 3.1%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Net units
- 0.00
- ROI
- —
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 10
- Record
- 6-4
- Net units
- -0.45
- ROI
- -4.5%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 22. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Pittsburgh Penguins
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
62:36 together · 7 games
- Corsi for / against
- 62 / 60
- Fenwick for / against
- 44 / 50
- Corsi share
- 50.8%
- Fenwick share
- 46.8%
- xG for / against
- 3.72 / 4.52
Defense pair
83:42 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 96 / 88
- Fenwick for / against
- 70 / 70
- Corsi share
- 52.2%
- Fenwick share
- 50.0%
- xG for / against
- 3.95 / 5.54
Dallas Stars
This selection is unavailable until complete validated shift records cover every selected game.
All observed combinationsAmbiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Expected starter unavailable.
Dallas Stars
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Arturs Silovs
Pittsburgh Penguins · Last start: Oct 24
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 138
- Save %
- 90.6
- Goals allowed
- 13
- Close-range shots %
- 32.6
Casey DeSmith
Dallas Stars · Last start: Oct 27
3 / 3 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 80
- Save %
- 88.8
- Goals allowed
- 9
- Close-range shots %
- 35.0
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 22, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Pittsburgh Penguins
- xG for / game
- 3.15
- xG against / game
- 3.33
- xG differential / game
- -0.18
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Dallas Stars
- xG for / game
- 3.29
- xG against / game
- 2.64
- xG differential / game
- 0.66
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 22, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Pittsburgh Penguins
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 57.9
- Corsi share (%)
- 50.9
- Fenwick share (%)
- 50.1
- Faceoff win %
- 46.6
- Penalties / game
- 2.9
Shots / game: 26.5 · Shooting: 9.8% · Avg distance: 31.3 ft
Dallas Stars
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 55.3
- Corsi share (%)
- 52.0
- Fenwick share (%)
- 53.1
- Faceoff win %
- 56.4
- Penalties / game
- 4.2
Shots / game: 26.8 · Shooting: 11.6% · Avg distance: 30.3 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
PIT
|
Metric |
DAL
|
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Points | 15 |
| 0.458 | Points % | 0.625 |
| 40 | Goals for | 33 |
| 40 | Goals against | 25 |
| 0 | Goal differential | 8 |
| W2 | Current streak | L1 |
Road versus home
|
PIT road
|
Metric |
DAL home
|
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Games | 7 |
| 1 | Wins | 4 |
| 3 | Points | 8 |
| -6 | Goal differential | 1 |
Last 10 games
|
PIT
|
Metric |
DAL
|
|---|---|---|
| 3-6-1 | Record | 7-2-1 |
| 7 | Points | 15 |
| 27 | Goals for | 32 |
| 35 | Goals against | 19 |
| -8 | Goal differential | 13 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
PIT
3 wins
10
games reviewed
DAL
7 wins
Total goals22 – 35
Goal differential
-13
/
+13
Goals per game2.2 / 3.5
Shots per game27.9 / 28.7
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 |
Dallas Stars
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
1 - 2 | 25 - 20 | View |
| Mar 28, 2026 |
Dallas Stars
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
6 - 3 | 26 - 12 | View |
| Dec 7, 2025 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Dallas Stars
|
2 - 3 | 29 - 23 | View |
| Apr 5, 2025 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Dallas Stars
|
5 - 3 | 40 - 24 | View |
| Nov 11, 2024 |
Dallas Stars
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
7 - 1 | 40 - 21 | View |
| Mar 22, 2024 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Dallas Stars
|
2 - 4 | 22 - 23 | View |
| Oct 24, 2023 |
Dallas Stars
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
4 - 1 | 34 - 39 | View |
| Mar 23, 2023 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Dallas Stars
|
2 - 3 | 42 - 33 | View |
| Dec 12, 2022 |
Dallas Stars
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
1 - 2 | 27 - 25 | View |
| Jan 8, 2022 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Dallas Stars
|
2 - 3 | 29 - 32 | View |