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Pittsburgh Penguins vs Colorado Avalanche prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 16, 2026

NHL matchup

Pittsburgh Penguins at Colorado Avalanche

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 16, 2026.

October 16, 2026 · 8:00 PM CST
Away

Pittsburgh Penguins

5-6-1

2
Final
Home

Colorado Avalanche

6-5-1

5 Model pick
Model V2 pick: Colorado Avalanche at 58.4% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Pittsburgh Penguins logo
Away team

Pittsburgh Penguins

41.6%
Fair American +140
Fair decimal 2.4
Best market +178 · Bovada
Market implied 36.0%
Edge +5.6%
Expected value +15.6%
Calculate value
Colorado Avalanche logo
Home team

Colorado Avalanche

58.4%
Fair American -140
Fair decimal 1.71
Best market -192 · DraftKings
Market implied 65.8%
Edge -7.4%
Expected value -11.2%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 16, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 16. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Pittsburgh Penguins

7 / 7 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

68:00 together · 7 games

xG share50.3%
Corsi for / against
68 / 58
Fenwick for / against
51 / 42
Corsi share
54.0%
Fenwick share
54.8%
xG for / against
3.06 / 3.03
Defense pair

91:25 together · 7 games

xG share56.4%
Corsi for / against
91 / 85
Fenwick for / against
65 / 56
Corsi share
51.7%
Fenwick share
53.7%
xG for / against
4.87 / 3.77
All observed combinations

Colorado Avalanche

7 / 7 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

74:53 together · 7 games

xG share58.6%
Corsi for / against
83 / 80
Fenwick for / against
63 / 51
Corsi share
50.9%
Fenwick share
55.3%
xG for / against
4.33 / 3.07
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Arturs Silovs 82.1%
Other eligible goalies
  • Sergei Murashov17.9%

Why Arturs Silovs?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+0.531
Prev save pct
+0.351
Started last game
+0.290
Won previous appearance
+0.286
Days since last start
+0.203
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 16, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Colorado Avalanche

Mackenzie Blackwood 88.6%
Other eligible goalies

Why Mackenzie Blackwood?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+1.043
Days since last start
+0.362
Started last game
+0.341
Won previous appearance
+0.305
Team win pct before
-0.276
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 16, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Sergei Murashov

Pittsburgh Penguins · Last start: Oct 13

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
101
Save %
91.1
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
33.7

Scott Wedgewood

Colorado Avalanche · Last start: Oct 14

2 / 2 appearances covered

Shots faced
51
Save %
90.2
Goals allowed
5
Close-range shots %
23.5
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 16, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Pittsburgh Penguins

xG for / game
3.48
xG against / game
3.09
xG differential / game
0.38

7 / 7 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Colorado Avalanche

xG for / game
3.41
xG against / game
2.34
xG differential / game
1.07

7 / 7 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 16, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Pittsburgh Penguins

7 / 7 games covered

Attempts / game
59.6
Corsi share (%)
50.4
Fenwick share (%)
50.5
Faceoff win %
45.6
Penalties / game
3.14

Shots / game: 28.4 · Shooting: 12.1% · Avg distance: 30.4 ft

Colorado Avalanche

7 / 7 games covered

Attempts / game
62.0
Corsi share (%)
53.4
Fenwick share (%)
54.1
Faceoff win %
48.6
Penalties / game
3.43

Shots / game: 30.6 · Shooting: 14.5% · Avg distance: 31.8 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT
Metric
Colorado Avalanche COL
11Points13
0.458Points %0.542
40Goals for49
40Goals against40
0Goal differential9
W2Current streakL1
Road versus home
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT road
Metric
Colorado Avalanche COL home
7Games6
1Wins4
3Points9
-6Goal differential11
Last 10 games
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT
Metric
Colorado Avalanche COL
3-6-1Record4-5-1
7Points9
27Goals for35
35Goals against35
-8Goal differential0
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Pittsburgh Penguins PIT 4 wins
10 games reviewed
Colorado Avalanche COL 6 wins
Total goals33 – 35
Goal differential -2 / +2
Goals per game3.3 / 3.5
Shots per game34.3 / 31.2
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 24, 2026
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
6 - 2 30 - 32 View
Mar 16, 2026
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
7 - 2 20 - 27 View
Mar 4, 2025
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
1 - 4 33 - 25 View
Dec 10, 2024
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
6 - 2 27 - 27 View
Mar 24, 2024
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
4 - 5 34 - 30 View
Oct 26, 2023
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
0 - 4 31 - 29 View
Mar 22, 2023
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
5 - 2 45 - 30 View
Feb 7, 2023
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
1 - 2 42 - 38 View
Apr 5, 2022
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
6 - 4 32 - 45 View
Apr 2, 2022
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
2 - 3 40 - 38 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings PIT COL