Forward trio
80:04 together · 9 games
- Corsi for / against
- 89 / 83
- Fenwick for / against
- 61 / 59
- Corsi share
- 51.7%
- Fenwick share
- 50.8%
- xG for / against
- 4.06 / 3.84
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Colorado Avalanche prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 16, 2026
NHL matchup
Pittsburgh Penguins at Colorado Avalanche
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 16, 2026.
March 16, 2026
· 8:30 PM CST
Model V2 prediction is not available yet for this game.
View final boxscore
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 16. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Pittsburgh Penguins
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Defense pair
131:22 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 135 / 126
- Fenwick for / against
- 92 / 95
- Corsi share
- 51.7%
- Fenwick share
- 49.2%
- xG for / against
- 6.41 / 6.50
Colorado Avalanche
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
65:48 together · 5 games
- Corsi for / against
- 86 / 50
- Fenwick for / against
- 63 / 38
- Corsi share
- 63.2%
- Fenwick share
- 62.4%
- xG for / against
- 3.78 / 2.25
Defense pair
130:03 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 156 / 100
- Fenwick for / against
- 116 / 81
- Corsi share
- 60.9%
- Fenwick share
- 58.9%
- xG for / against
- 8.05 / 4.80
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Stuart Skinner
Pittsburgh Penguins · Last start: Mar 14
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 142
- Save %
- 90.1
- Goals allowed
- 14
- Close-range shots %
- 33.1
Mackenzie Blackwood
Colorado Avalanche · Last start: Mar 14
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 89
- Save %
- 85.4
- Goals allowed
- 13
- Close-range shots %
- 24.7
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 16, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Pittsburgh Penguins
- xG for / game
- 3.55
- xG against / game
- 3.34
- xG differential / game
- 0.20
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Colorado Avalanche
- xG for / game
- 3.52
- xG against / game
- 2.75
- xG differential / game
- 0.78
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 16, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Pittsburgh Penguins
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 60.5
- Corsi share (%)
- 49.3
- Fenwick share (%)
- 50.3
- Faceoff win %
- 40.1
- Penalties / game
- 4.1
Shots / game: 29.6 · Shooting: 10.5% · Avg distance: 31.9 ft
Colorado Avalanche
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 68.7
- Corsi share (%)
- 56.2
- Fenwick share (%)
- 54.9
- Faceoff win %
- 51.8
- Penalties / game
- 3.8
Shots / game: 32.3 · Shooting: 10.2% · Avg distance: 32.1 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
PIT
|
Metric |
COL
|
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Points | 13 |
| 0.458 | Points % | 0.542 |
| 40 | Goals for | 49 |
| 40 | Goals against | 40 |
| 0 | Goal differential | 9 |
| W2 | Current streak | L1 |
Road versus home
|
PIT road
|
Metric |
COL home
|
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Games | 6 |
| 1 | Wins | 4 |
| 3 | Points | 9 |
| -6 | Goal differential | 11 |
Last 10 games
|
PIT
|
Metric |
COL
|
|---|---|---|
| 3-6-1 | Record | 4-5-1 |
| 7 | Points | 9 |
| 27 | Goals for | 35 |
| 35 | Goals against | 35 |
| -8 | Goal differential | 0 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
PIT
5 wins
10
games reviewed
COL
5 wins
Total goals31 – 32
Goal differential
-1
/
+1
Goals per game3.1 / 3.2
Shots per game35.3 / 31.4
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2025 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Colorado Avalanche
|
1 - 4 | 33 - 25 | View |
| Dec 10, 2024 |
Colorado Avalanche
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
6 - 2 | 27 - 27 | View |
| Mar 24, 2024 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Colorado Avalanche
|
4 - 5 | 34 - 30 | View |
| Oct 26, 2023 |
Colorado Avalanche
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
0 - 4 | 31 - 29 | View |
| Mar 22, 2023 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Colorado Avalanche
|
5 - 2 | 45 - 30 | View |
| Feb 7, 2023 |
Colorado Avalanche
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
1 - 2 | 42 - 38 | View |
| Apr 5, 2022 |
Colorado Avalanche
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
6 - 4 | 32 - 45 | View |
| Apr 2, 2022 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Colorado Avalanche
|
2 - 3 | 40 - 38 | View |
| Jan 10, 2020 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Colorado Avalanche
|
4 - 3 | 30 - 31 | View |
| Oct 16, 2019 |
Colorado Avalanche
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
2 - 3 | 28 - 32 | View |