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Pittsburgh Penguins vs Chicago Blackhawks prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 13, 2026

NHL matchup

Pittsburgh Penguins at Chicago Blackhawks

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 13, 2026.

October 13, 2026 · 7:00 PM CST
Away

Pittsburgh Penguins

5-6-1

3 Model pick
Final
Home

Chicago Blackhawks

3-8-0

5
Model V2 pick: Pittsburgh Penguins at 52.1% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Pittsburgh Penguins logo
Away team

Pittsburgh Penguins

52.1%
Fair American -109
Fair decimal 1.92
Best market -150 · BetRivers
Market implied 60.0%
Edge -7.9%
Expected value -13.2%
Calculate value
Chicago Blackhawks logo
Home team

Chicago Blackhawks

47.9%
Fair American +109
Fair decimal 2.09
Best market +141 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 41.5%
Edge +6.4%
Expected value +15.4%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 13, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 13. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Pittsburgh Penguins

6 / 6 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

58:45 together · 6 games

xG share47.8%
Corsi for / against
59 / 54
Fenwick for / against
42 / 40
Corsi share
52.2%
Fenwick share
51.2%
xG for / against
2.67 / 2.92
Defense pair

79:21 together · 6 games

xG share53.6%
Corsi for / against
76 / 78
Fenwick for / against
54 / 50
Corsi share
49.4%
Fenwick share
51.9%
xG for / against
3.83 / 3.31
All observed combinations

Chicago Blackhawks

6 / 6 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

52:32 together · 6 games

xG share48.5%
Corsi for / against
44 / 47
Fenwick for / against
36 / 34
Corsi share
48.4%
Fenwick share
51.4%
xG for / against
2.04 / 2.17
Defense pair

56:30 together · 6 games

xG share38.1%
Corsi for / against
29 / 52
Fenwick for / against
23 / 37
Corsi share
35.8%
Fenwick share
38.3%
xG for / against
1.27 / 2.06
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Arturs Silovs 66.0%
Other eligible goalies
  • Sergei Murashov34.0%

Why Arturs Silovs?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+0.821
Prev save pct
+0.330
Days since last start
+0.315
Started last game
-0.308
Won previous appearance
+0.307
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 13, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Chicago Blackhawks

Spencer Knight 66.6%
Other eligible goalies

Why Spencer Knight?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Team win pct before
+0.646
Started last game
-0.326
Prev save pct
-0.291
Won previous appearance
-0.208
Consecutive starts
-0.135
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 13, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Arturs Silovs

Pittsburgh Penguins · Last start: Oct 10

4 / 4 appearances covered

Shots faced
96
Save %
88.5
Goals allowed
11
Close-range shots %
27.1

Spencer Knight

Chicago Blackhawks · Last start: Oct 10

4 / 4 appearances covered

Shots faced
130
Save %
88.5
Goals allowed
15
Close-range shots %
37.7
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 13, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Pittsburgh Penguins

xG for / game
3.43
xG against / game
3.31
xG differential / game
0.12

6 / 6 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Chicago Blackhawks

xG for / game
2.07
xG against / game
3.59
xG differential / game
-1.52

6 / 6 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 13, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Pittsburgh Penguins

6 / 6 games covered

Attempts / game
59.3
Corsi share (%)
48.6
Fenwick share (%)
48.8
Faceoff win %
44.9
Penalties / game
3.33

Shots / game: 28.7 · Shooting: 12.2% · Avg distance: 30.9 ft

Chicago Blackhawks

6 / 6 games covered

Attempts / game
45.2
Corsi share (%)
42.9
Fenwick share (%)
41.9
Faceoff win %
42.4
Penalties / game
3.33

Shots / game: 21.0 · Shooting: 9.5% · Avg distance: 33.4 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT
Metric
Chicago Blackhawks CHI
11Points6
0.458Points %0.273
40Goals for24
40Goals against43
0Goal differential-19
W2Current streakL3
Road versus home
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT road
Metric
Chicago Blackhawks CHI home
7Games7
1Wins3
3Points6
-6Goal differential-6
Last 10 games
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT
Metric
Chicago Blackhawks CHI
3-6-1Record3-7-0
7Points6
27Goals for22
35Goals against38
-8Goal differential-16
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Pittsburgh Penguins PIT 6 wins
10 games reviewed
Chicago Blackhawks CHI 4 wins
Total goals39 – 26
Goal differential +13 / -13
Goals per game3.9 / 2.6
Shots per game32.7 / 27.6
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Jan 29, 2026
Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
2 - 6 20 - 44 View
Dec 28, 2025
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks
7 - 3 24 - 24 View
Apr 8, 2025
Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
0 - 5 26 - 27 View
Apr 6, 2025
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks
1 - 3 29 - 31 View
Feb 15, 2024
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks
4 - 1 27 - 28 View
Oct 10, 2023
Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
4 - 2 36 - 41 View
Apr 11, 2023
Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
5 - 2 27 - 40 View
Nov 20, 2022
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks
5 - 3 25 - 32 View
Nov 9, 2021
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks
2 - 3 44 - 32 View
Oct 16, 2021
Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
2 - 5 20 - 26 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings PIT CHI