Away team
Pittsburgh Penguins
59.2%
Fair American
-145
Fair decimal
1.69
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Buffalo Sabres prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for November 27, 2026
NHL matchup
Pittsburgh Penguins at Buffalo Sabres
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for November 27, 2026.
November 27, 2026
· 7:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Pittsburgh Penguins at 59.2%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Buffalo Sabres
40.8%
Fair American
+145
Fair decimal
2.45
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Nov 27, 2026.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 5-3
- Net units
- 2.59
- ROI
- 32.4%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 4-4
- Net units
- 0.85
- ROI
- 10.7%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 4
- Record
- 2-2
- Net units
- -0.38
- ROI
- -9.5%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 3-4
- Net units
- -1.66
- ROI
- -23.7%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 1-5
- Net units
- -4.07
- ROI
- -67.8%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 4
- Record
- 2-2
- Net units
- -0.62
- ROI
- -15.6%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 27. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Pittsburgh Penguins
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
62:36 together · 7 games
- Corsi for / against
- 62 / 60
- Fenwick for / against
- 44 / 50
- Corsi share
- 50.8%
- Fenwick share
- 46.8%
- xG for / against
- 3.72 / 4.52
Defense pair
83:42 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 96 / 88
- Fenwick for / against
- 70 / 70
- Corsi share
- 52.2%
- Fenwick share
- 50.0%
- xG for / against
- 3.95 / 5.54
Buffalo Sabres
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
103:15 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 117 / 54
- Fenwick for / against
- 81 / 41
- Corsi share
- 68.4%
- Fenwick share
- 66.4%
- xG for / against
- 6.30 / 2.72
Defense pair
81:19 together · 7 games
- Corsi for / against
- 72 / 59
- Fenwick for / against
- 50 / 42
- Corsi share
- 55.0%
- Fenwick share
- 54.3%
- xG for / against
- 3.23 / 2.92
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Expected starter unavailable.
Buffalo Sabres
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Arturs Silovs
Pittsburgh Penguins · Last start: Oct 24
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 138
- Save %
- 90.6
- Goals allowed
- 13
- Close-range shots %
- 32.6
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
Buffalo Sabres · Last start: Oct 24
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 163
- Save %
- 89.0
- Goals allowed
- 18
- Close-range shots %
- 40.5
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 27, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Pittsburgh Penguins
- xG for / game
- 3.15
- xG against / game
- 3.33
- xG differential / game
- -0.18
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Buffalo Sabres
- xG for / game
- 3.20
- xG against / game
- 3.55
- xG differential / game
- -0.35
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 27, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Pittsburgh Penguins
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 57.9
- Corsi share (%)
- 50.9
- Fenwick share (%)
- 50.1
- Faceoff win %
- 46.6
- Penalties / game
- 2.9
Shots / game: 26.5 · Shooting: 9.8% · Avg distance: 31.3 ft
Buffalo Sabres
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 56.8
- Corsi share (%)
- 51.0
- Fenwick share (%)
- 49.5
- Faceoff win %
- 48.2
- Penalties / game
- 4.2
Shots / game: 26.4 · Shooting: 10.6% · Avg distance: 30.6 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
PIT
|
Metric |
BUF
|
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Points | 11 |
| 0.458 | Points % | 0.500 |
| 40 | Goals for | 31 |
| 40 | Goals against | 41 |
| 0 | Goal differential | -10 |
| W2 | Current streak | OT1 |
Road versus home
|
PIT road
|
Metric |
BUF home
|
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Games | 6 |
| 1 | Wins | 3 |
| 3 | Points | 6 |
| -6 | Goal differential | -5 |
Last 10 games
|
PIT
|
Metric |
BUF
|
|---|---|---|
| 3-6-1 | Record | 4-3-3 |
| 7 | Points | 11 |
| 27 | Goals for | 28 |
| 35 | Goals against | 35 |
| -8 | Goal differential | -7 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
PIT
6 wins
10
games reviewed
BUF
4 wins
Total goals34 – 30
Goal differential
+4
/
-4
Goals per game3.4 / 3.0
Shots per game31.0 / 32.9
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
5 - 1 | 26 - 28 | View |
| Feb 5, 2026 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
5 - 2 | 32 - 28 | View |
| Nov 26, 2025 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
2 - 4 | 31 - 19 | View |
| Mar 27, 2025 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
3 - 7 | 25 - 30 | View |
| Jan 17, 2025 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
5 - 2 | 19 - 42 | View |
| Oct 16, 2024 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
5 - 6 | 33 - 43 | View |
| Jan 6, 2024 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
3 - 1 | 32 - 41 | View |
| Nov 24, 2023 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
2 - 3 | 33 - 34 | View |
| Nov 11, 2023 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
0 - 4 | 35 - 39 | View |
| Dec 10, 2022 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
1 - 3 | 38 - 31 | View |