Forward trio
109:52 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 103 / 95
- Fenwick for / against
- 87 / 70
- Corsi share
- 52.0%
- Fenwick share
- 55.4%
- xG for / against
- 7.68 / 4.02
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Buffalo Sabres prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for February 5, 2026
NHL matchup
Pittsburgh Penguins at Buffalo Sabres
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for February 5, 2026.
February 5, 2026
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 prediction is not available yet for this game.
View final boxscore
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 5. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Pittsburgh Penguins
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Defense pair
83:14 together · 6 games
- Corsi for / against
- 77 / 59
- Fenwick for / against
- 58 / 41
- Corsi share
- 56.6%
- Fenwick share
- 58.6%
- xG for / against
- 4.10 / 3.11
Buffalo Sabres
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
105:18 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 90 / 112
- Fenwick for / against
- 70 / 95
- Corsi share
- 44.6%
- Fenwick share
- 42.4%
- xG for / against
- 6.80 / 7.48
Defense pair
95:52 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 73 / 88
- Fenwick for / against
- 57 / 70
- Corsi share
- 45.3%
- Fenwick share
- 44.9%
- xG for / against
- 4.29 / 4.61
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Stuart Skinner
Pittsburgh Penguins · Last start: Feb 3
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 117
- Save %
- 86.3
- Goals allowed
- 16
- Close-range shots %
- 33.3
Colten Ellis
Buffalo Sabres · Last start: Feb 3
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 139
- Save %
- 89.9
- Goals allowed
- 14
- Close-range shots %
- 30.2
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 5, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Pittsburgh Penguins
- xG for / game
- 3.89
- xG against / game
- 3.00
- xG differential / game
- 0.90
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Buffalo Sabres
- xG for / game
- 2.94
- xG against / game
- 3.48
- xG differential / game
- -0.54
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 5, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Pittsburgh Penguins
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 61.5
- Corsi share (%)
- 52.3
- Fenwick share (%)
- 53.2
- Faceoff win %
- 49.8
- Penalties / game
- 3.1
Shots / game: 29.8 · Shooting: 15.4% · Avg distance: 29.9 ft
Buffalo Sabres
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 50.7
- Corsi share (%)
- 44.3
- Fenwick share (%)
- 44.5
- Faceoff win %
- 42.4
- Penalties / game
- 3.7
Shots / game: 26.0 · Shooting: 15.4% · Avg distance: 32.6 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
PIT
|
Metric |
BUF
|
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Points | 13 |
| 0.458 | Points % | 0.542 |
| 40 | Goals for | 33 |
| 40 | Goals against | 41 |
| 0 | Goal differential | -8 |
| W2 | Current streak | W1 |
Road versus home
|
PIT road
|
Metric |
BUF home
|
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Games | 6 |
| 1 | Wins | 3 |
| 3 | Points | 6 |
| -6 | Goal differential | -5 |
Last 10 games
|
PIT
|
Metric |
BUF
|
|---|---|---|
| 3-6-1 | Record | 4-3-3 |
| 7 | Points | 11 |
| 27 | Goals for | 26 |
| 35 | Goals against | 32 |
| -8 | Goal differential | -6 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
PIT
6 wins
10
games reviewed
BUF
4 wins
Total goals35 – 32
Goal differential
+3
/
-3
Goals per game3.5 / 3.2
Shots per game30.4 / 33.9
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2025 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
2 - 4 | 31 - 19 | View |
| Mar 27, 2025 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
3 - 7 | 25 - 30 | View |
| Jan 17, 2025 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
5 - 2 | 19 - 42 | View |
| Oct 16, 2024 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
5 - 6 | 33 - 43 | View |
| Jan 6, 2024 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
3 - 1 | 32 - 41 | View |
| Nov 24, 2023 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
2 - 3 | 33 - 34 | View |
| Nov 11, 2023 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
0 - 4 | 35 - 39 | View |
| Dec 10, 2022 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
1 - 3 | 38 - 31 | View |
| Dec 9, 2022 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
4 - 3 | 33 - 31 | View |
| Nov 2, 2022 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
3 - 6 | 21 - 33 | View |