Away team
Philadelphia Flyers
33.3%
Fair American
+200
Fair decimal
3.0
Philadelphia Flyers vs Washington Capitals prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for November 25, 2026
NHL matchup
Philadelphia Flyers at Washington Capitals
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for November 25, 2026.
November 25, 2026
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Washington Capitals at 66.7%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Washington Capitals
66.7%
Fair American
-200
Fair decimal
1.5
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Nov 25, 2026.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 1
- Record
- 0-1
- Net units
- -1.00
- ROI
- -100.0%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 2-4
- Net units
- -0.64
- ROI
- -10.7%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 0-3
- Net units
- -3.00
- ROI
- -100.0%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 5-2
- Net units
- 1.86
- ROI
- 26.6%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 2-1
- Net units
- 0.96
- ROI
- 32.0%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 6-2
- Net units
- 2.30
- ROI
- 28.7%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 25. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Philadelphia Flyers
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
66:54 together · 9 games
- Corsi for / against
- 50 / 52
- Fenwick for / against
- 30 / 37
- Corsi share
- 49.0%
- Fenwick share
- 44.8%
- xG for / against
- 3.16 / 2.13
Defense pair
113:05 together · 9 games
- Corsi for / against
- 104 / 100
- Fenwick for / against
- 73 / 66
- Corsi share
- 51.0%
- Fenwick share
- 52.5%
- xG for / against
- 4.75 / 4.64
Washington Capitals
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
51:45 together · 7 games
- Corsi for / against
- 55 / 44
- Fenwick for / against
- 43 / 30
- Corsi share
- 55.6%
- Fenwick share
- 58.9%
- xG for / against
- 3.53 / 1.82
Defense pair
85:54 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 77 / 105
- Fenwick for / against
- 60 / 80
- Corsi share
- 42.3%
- Fenwick share
- 42.9%
- xG for / against
- 4.07 / 4.43
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Philadelphia Flyers
Expected starter unavailable.
Washington Capitals
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Joseph Woll
Philadelphia Flyers · Last start: Oct 28
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 137
- Save %
- 87.6
- Goals allowed
- 17
- Close-range shots %
- 31.4
Logan Thompson
Washington Capitals · Last start: Oct 28
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 142
- Save %
- 88.7
- Goals allowed
- 16
- Close-range shots %
- 31.0
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 25, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Philadelphia Flyers
- xG for / game
- 2.73
- xG against / game
- 3.30
- xG differential / game
- -0.57
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Washington Capitals
- xG for / game
- 3.52
- xG against / game
- 3.20
- xG differential / game
- 0.33
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 25, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Philadelphia Flyers
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 52.8
- Corsi share (%)
- 47.8
- Fenwick share (%)
- 46.4
- Faceoff win %
- 49.8
- Penalties / game
- 3.9
Shots / game: 24.6 · Shooting: 9.3% · Avg distance: 30.6 ft
Washington Capitals
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 56.7
- Corsi share (%)
- 48.1
- Fenwick share (%)
- 49.5
- Faceoff win %
- 49.1
- Penalties / game
- 4.1
Shots / game: 27.8 · Shooting: 12.2% · Avg distance: 31.7 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
PHI
|
Metric |
WSH
|
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Points | 14 |
| 0.333 | Points % | 0.636 |
| 29 | Goals for | 39 |
| 51 | Goals against | 34 |
| -22 | Goal differential | 5 |
| L1 | Current streak | W2 |
Road versus home
|
PHI road
|
Metric |
WSH home
|
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Games | 8 |
| 1 | Wins | 6 |
| 3 | Points | 12 |
| -11 | Goal differential | 6 |
Last 10 games
|
PHI
|
Metric |
WSH
|
|---|---|---|
| 3-5-2 | Record | 6-4-0 |
| 8 | Points | 12 |
| 23 | Goals for | 34 |
| 32 | Goals against | 32 |
| -9 | Goal differential | 2 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
PHI
2 wins
10
games reviewed
WSH
8 wins
Total goals25 – 36
Goal differential
-11
/
+11
Goals per game2.5 / 3.6
Shots per game24.2 / 23.3
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026 |
Philadelphia Flyers
at
Washington Capitals
|
2 - 5 | 25 - 30 | View |
| Mar 31, 2026 |
Philadelphia Flyers
at
Washington Capitals
|
4 - 6 | 24 - 18 | View |
| Mar 11, 2026 |
Washington Capitals
at
Philadelphia Flyers
|
1 - 4 | 22 - 22 | View |
| Feb 25, 2026 |
Philadelphia Flyers
at
Washington Capitals
|
1 - 3 | 24 - 29 | View |
| Feb 3, 2026 |
Washington Capitals
at
Philadelphia Flyers
|
2 - 4 | 28 - 22 | View |
| Mar 20, 2025 |
Philadelphia Flyers
at
Washington Capitals
|
2 - 3 | 28 - 16 | View |
| Feb 6, 2025 |
Washington Capitals
at
Philadelphia Flyers
|
4 - 3 | 18 - 22 | View |
| Oct 23, 2024 |
Philadelphia Flyers
at
Washington Capitals
|
3 - 6 | 29 - 25 | View |
| Oct 22, 2024 |
Washington Capitals
at
Philadelphia Flyers
|
4 - 1 | 29 - 18 | View |
| Apr 16, 2024 |
Washington Capitals
at
Philadelphia Flyers
|
2 - 1 | 18 - 28 | View |