Away team
Philadelphia Flyers
34.7%
Fair American
+188
Fair decimal
2.88
Philadelphia Flyers vs Washington Capitals prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 28, 2026
NHL matchup
Philadelphia Flyers at Washington Capitals
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 28, 2026.
October 28, 2026
· 6:30 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Washington Capitals at 65.3%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Washington Capitals
65.3%
Fair American
-188
Fair decimal
1.53
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 28, 2026.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Net units
- 0.00
- ROI
- —
Value Picks
- Bets
- 4
- Record
- 2-2
- Net units
- 1.36
- ROI
- 34.0%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 0-3
- Net units
- -3.00
- ROI
- -100.0%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 4-2
- Net units
- 1.42
- ROI
- 23.6%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 2-1
- Net units
- 0.96
- ROI
- 32.0%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 5-2
- Net units
- 1.86
- ROI
- 26.5%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 28. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Philadelphia Flyers
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
49:44 together · 7 games
- Corsi for / against
- 40 / 38
- Fenwick for / against
- 22 / 25
- Corsi share
- 51.3%
- Fenwick share
- 46.8%
- xG for / against
- 2.09 / 1.31
Defense pair
106:21 together · 7 games
- Corsi for / against
- 96 / 92
- Fenwick for / against
- 69 / 59
- Corsi share
- 51.1%
- Fenwick share
- 53.9%
- xG for / against
- 4.34 / 3.84
Washington Capitals
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
41:39 together · 6 games
- Corsi for / against
- 41 / 38
- Fenwick for / against
- 32 / 27
- Corsi share
- 51.9%
- Fenwick share
- 54.2%
- xG for / against
- 2.56 / 1.53
Defense pair
87:35 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 78 / 105
- Fenwick for / against
- 61 / 80
- Corsi share
- 42.6%
- Fenwick share
- 43.3%
- xG for / against
- 4.29 / 4.54
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Philadelphia Flyers
Dan Vladar
67.0%
Other eligible goalies
- Joseph Woll33.0%
Why Dan Vladar?
Top five influences
Raises the scoreLowers the score
Team win pct before
+0.646
Prev save pct
+0.384
Started last game
+0.293
Won previous appearance
+0.291
Rolling 5 game avg save pct
+0.162
About these predictions
Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.
SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.
Updated Oct 27, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time
This team plays another game first. That game's goalie usage and result are not included yet.
Washington Capitals
Logan Thompson
78.0%
Other eligible goalies
- Charlie Lindgren16.8%
- Mitchell Gibson5.1%
Why Logan Thompson?
Top five influences
Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+0.782
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.392
Days since last start
+0.363
Team win pct before
-0.255
Prev save pct
-0.251
About these predictions
Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.
SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.
Updated Oct 27, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Joseph Woll
Philadelphia Flyers · Last start: Oct 24
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 134
- Save %
- 88.8
- Goals allowed
- 15
- Close-range shots %
- 32.1
Charlie Lindgren
Washington Capitals · Last start: Oct 24
3 / 3 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 79
- Save %
- 88.6
- Goals allowed
- 9
- Close-range shots %
- 25.3
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 28, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Philadelphia Flyers
- xG for / game
- 2.65
- xG against / game
- 3.44
- xG differential / game
- -0.79
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Washington Capitals
- xG for / game
- 3.53
- xG against / game
- 3.37
- xG differential / game
- 0.16
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 28, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Philadelphia Flyers
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 50.2
- Corsi share (%)
- 45.7
- Fenwick share (%)
- 44.6
- Faceoff win %
- 49.8
- Penalties / game
- 4.2
Shots / game: 23.3 · Shooting: 8.6% · Avg distance: 31.2 ft
Washington Capitals
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 54.8
- Corsi share (%)
- 46.4
- Fenwick share (%)
- 47.8
- Faceoff win %
- 50.2
- Penalties / game
- 4.4
Shots / game: 27.5 · Shooting: 12.4% · Avg distance: 31.5 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
PHI
|
Metric |
WSH
|
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Points | 12 |
| 0.346 | Points % | 0.600 |
| 24 | Goals for | 34 |
| 42 | Goals against | 32 |
| -18 | Goal differential | 2 |
| L1 | Current streak | W1 |
Road versus home
|
PHI road
|
Metric |
WSH home
|
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Games | 7 |
| 1 | Wins | 5 |
| 3 | Points | 10 |
| -8 | Goal differential | 3 |
Last 10 games
|
PHI
|
Metric |
WSH
|
|---|---|---|
| 3-6-1 | Record | 6-4-0 |
| 7 | Points | 12 |
| 20 | Goals for | 34 |
| 29 | Goals against | 32 |
| -9 | Goal differential | 2 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
PHI
2 wins
10
games reviewed
WSH
8 wins
Total goals25 – 36
Goal differential
-11
/
+11
Goals per game2.5 / 3.6
Shots per game24.0 / 22.4
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2026 |
Philadelphia Flyers
at
Washington Capitals
|
4 - 6 | 24 - 18 | View |
| Mar 11, 2026 |
Washington Capitals
at
Philadelphia Flyers
|
1 - 4 | 22 - 22 | View |
| Feb 25, 2026 |
Philadelphia Flyers
at
Washington Capitals
|
1 - 3 | 24 - 29 | View |
| Feb 3, 2026 |
Washington Capitals
at
Philadelphia Flyers
|
2 - 4 | 28 - 22 | View |
| Mar 20, 2025 |
Philadelphia Flyers
at
Washington Capitals
|
2 - 3 | 28 - 16 | View |
| Feb 6, 2025 |
Washington Capitals
at
Philadelphia Flyers
|
4 - 3 | 18 - 22 | View |
| Oct 23, 2024 |
Philadelphia Flyers
at
Washington Capitals
|
3 - 6 | 29 - 25 | View |
| Oct 22, 2024 |
Washington Capitals
at
Philadelphia Flyers
|
4 - 1 | 29 - 18 | View |
| Apr 16, 2024 |
Washington Capitals
at
Philadelphia Flyers
|
2 - 1 | 18 - 28 | View |
| Mar 1, 2024 |
Philadelphia Flyers
at
Washington Capitals
|
2 - 5 | 23 - 21 | View |