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Philadelphia Flyers vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for January 9, 2027

NHL matchup

Philadelphia Flyers at Toronto Maple Leafs

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for January 9, 2027.

January 9, 2027 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Philadelphia Flyers

3-7-3

32.1%
at
Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

7-4-2

67.9% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Toronto Maple Leafs at 67.9%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Philadelphia Flyers logo
Away team

Philadelphia Flyers

32.1%
Fair American +212
Fair decimal 3.12
Calculate value
Toronto Maple Leafs logo
Home team

Toronto Maple Leafs

67.9%
Fair American -212
Fair decimal 1.47
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Jan 9, 2027.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 9. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Philadelphia Flyers

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

49:44 together · 7 games

xG share61.4%
Corsi for / against
40 / 38
Fenwick for / against
22 / 25
Corsi share
51.3%
Fenwick share
46.8%
xG for / against
2.09 / 1.31
Defense pair

106:21 together · 7 games

xG share53.1%
Corsi for / against
96 / 92
Fenwick for / against
69 / 59
Corsi share
51.1%
Fenwick share
53.9%
xG for / against
4.34 / 3.84
All observed combinations

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

104:16 together · 10 games

xG share45.0%
Corsi for / against
87 / 118
Fenwick for / against
71 / 87
Corsi share
42.4%
Fenwick share
44.9%
xG for / against
4.07 / 4.98
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Joseph Woll

Philadelphia Flyers · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
134
Save %
88.8
Goals allowed
15
Close-range shots %
32.1

Anthony Stolarz

Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
150
Save %
90.7
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
31.3
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 9, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Philadelphia Flyers

xG for / game
2.65
xG against / game
3.44
xG differential / game
-0.79

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Toronto Maple Leafs

xG for / game
3.20
xG against / game
3.44
xG differential / game
-0.24

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 9, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Philadelphia Flyers

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
50.2
Corsi share (%)
45.7
Fenwick share (%)
44.6
Faceoff win %
49.8
Penalties / game
4.2

Shots / game: 23.3 · Shooting: 8.6% · Avg distance: 31.2 ft

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
54.0
Corsi share (%)
46.0
Fenwick share (%)
48.2
Faceoff win %
53.1
Penalties / game
4.2

Shots / game: 29.0 · Shooting: 15.2% · Avg distance: 32.5 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Philadelphia Flyers PHI
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
9Points16
0.346Points %0.615
24Goals for50
42Goals against41
-18Goal differential9
L1Current streakW4
Road versus home
Philadelphia Flyers PHI road
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR home
6Games8
1Wins4
3Points9
-8Goal differential-1
Last 10 games
Philadelphia Flyers PHI
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
3-6-1Record6-2-2
7Points14
20Goals for44
29Goals against34
-9Goal differential10
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Philadelphia Flyers PHI 2 wins
10 games reviewed
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR 8 wins
Total goals23 – 41
Goal differential -18 / +18
Goals per game2.3 / 4.1
Shots per game29.0 / 27.3
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 2, 2026
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 2 25 - 31 View
Jan 8, 2026
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
2 - 1 23 - 23 View
Nov 1, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
5 - 2 27 - 33 View
Mar 25, 2025
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
2 - 7 19 - 30 View
Jan 7, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
3 - 2 17 - 32 View
Jan 5, 2025
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
2 - 3 32 - 25 View
Mar 19, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
3 - 4 30 - 30 View
Mar 14, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
6 - 2 27 - 28 View
Feb 15, 2024
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 4 32 - 28 View
Jan 8, 2023
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
6 - 2 35 - 36 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings PHI TOR