Away team
Philadelphia Flyers
32.4%
Fair American
+209
Fair decimal
3.09
Philadelphia Flyers vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for November 30, 2026
NHL matchup
Philadelphia Flyers at Toronto Maple Leafs
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for November 30, 2026.
November 30, 2026
· 6:30 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Toronto Maple Leafs at 67.6%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Toronto Maple Leafs
67.6%
Fair American
-209
Fair decimal
1.48
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Nov 30, 2026.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 1
- Record
- 0-1
- Net units
- -1.00
- ROI
- -100.0%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 2-4
- Net units
- -0.64
- ROI
- -10.7%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 0-3
- Net units
- -3.00
- ROI
- -100.0%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 9
- Record
- 4-5
- Net units
- -0.35
- ROI
- -3.9%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 5-2
- Net units
- 4.60
- ROI
- 65.8%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 2-5
- Net units
- -3.55
- ROI
- -50.7%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 30. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Philadelphia Flyers
This selection is unavailable until complete validated shift records cover every selected game.
All observed combinationsToronto Maple Leafs
This selection is unavailable until complete validated shift records cover every selected game.
All observed combinationsAmbiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Philadelphia Flyers
Expected starter unavailable.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Joseph Woll
Philadelphia Flyers · Last start: Oct 28
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 137
- Save %
- 87.6
- Goals allowed
- 17
- Close-range shots %
- 31.4
Sergei Bobrovsky
Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Oct 28
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 124
- Save %
- 87.1
- Goals allowed
- 16
- Close-range shots %
- 27.4
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 30, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Philadelphia Flyers
- xG for / game
- 2.73
- xG against / game
- 3.30
- xG differential / game
- -0.57
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Toronto Maple Leafs
- xG for / game
- 2.96
- xG against / game
- 3.13
- xG differential / game
- -0.17
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 30, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Philadelphia Flyers
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 52.8
- Corsi share (%)
- 47.8
- Fenwick share (%)
- 46.4
- Faceoff win %
- 49.8
- Penalties / game
- 3.9
Shots / game: 24.6 · Shooting: 9.3% · Avg distance: 30.6 ft
Toronto Maple Leafs
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 51.2
- Corsi share (%)
- 45.6
- Fenwick share (%)
- 48.8
- Faceoff win %
- 52.0
- Penalties / game
- 5.0
Shots / game: 27.8 · Shooting: 15.1% · Avg distance: 34.9 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
PHI
|
Metric |
TOR
|
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Points | 16 |
| 0.333 | Points % | 0.533 |
| 29 | Goals for | 56 |
| 51 | Goals against | 51 |
| -22 | Goal differential | 5 |
| L1 | Current streak | L2 |
Road versus home
|
PHI road
|
Metric |
TOR home
|
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Games | 8 |
| 1 | Wins | 4 |
| 3 | Points | 9 |
| -11 | Goal differential | -1 |
Last 10 games
|
PHI
|
Metric |
TOR
|
|---|---|---|
| 3-5-2 | Record | 5-4-1 |
| 8 | Points | 11 |
| 23 | Goals for | 42 |
| 32 | Goals against | 36 |
| -9 | Goal differential | 6 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
PHI
2 wins
10
games reviewed
TOR
8 wins
Total goals23 – 41
Goal differential
-18
/
+18
Goals per game2.3 / 4.1
Shots per game29.0 / 27.3
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2026 |
Philadelphia Flyers
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
3 - 2 | 25 - 31 | View |
| Jan 8, 2026 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Philadelphia Flyers
|
2 - 1 | 23 - 23 | View |
| Nov 1, 2025 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Philadelphia Flyers
|
5 - 2 | 27 - 33 | View |
| Mar 25, 2025 |
Philadelphia Flyers
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
2 - 7 | 19 - 30 | View |
| Jan 7, 2025 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Philadelphia Flyers
|
3 - 2 | 17 - 32 | View |
| Jan 5, 2025 |
Philadelphia Flyers
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
2 - 3 | 32 - 25 | View |
| Mar 19, 2024 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Philadelphia Flyers
|
3 - 4 | 30 - 30 | View |
| Mar 14, 2024 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Philadelphia Flyers
|
6 - 2 | 27 - 28 | View |
| Feb 15, 2024 |
Philadelphia Flyers
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
3 - 4 | 32 - 28 | View |
| Jan 8, 2023 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Philadelphia Flyers
|
6 - 2 | 35 - 36 | View |