Skip to content

Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 5, 2026

NHL matchup

Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 5, 2026.

October 5, 2026 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Philadelphia Flyers

3-8-4

1
Final
Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

7-3-1

4 Model pick
Model V2 pick: Tampa Bay Lightning at 58.8% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Philadelphia Flyers logo
Away team

Philadelphia Flyers

41.2%
Fair American +143
Fair decimal 2.43
Best market +191 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 34.4%
Edge +6.8%
Expected value +19.9%
Calculate value
Tampa Bay Lightning logo
Home team

Tampa Bay Lightning

58.8%
Fair American -143
Fair decimal 1.7
Best market -210 · BetMGM
Market implied 67.7%
Edge -8.9%
Expected value -13.2%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 5, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 5. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Philadelphia Flyers

3 / 3 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

41:29 together · 3 games

xG share26.3%
Corsi for / against
35 / 66
Fenwick for / against
28 / 54
Corsi share
34.7%
Fenwick share
34.1%
xG for / against
1.29 / 3.62
All observed combinations

Tampa Bay Lightning

2 / 2 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

22:05 together · 2 games

xG share49.3%
Corsi for / against
26 / 19
Fenwick for / against
18 / 14
Corsi share
57.8%
Fenwick share
56.3%
xG for / against
0.94 / 0.97
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Joseph Woll

Philadelphia Flyers · Last start: Oct 3

2 / 2 appearances covered

Shots faced
84
Save %
92.9
Goals allowed
6
Close-range shots %
28.6

Andrei Vasilevskiy

Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Oct 3

2 / 2 appearances covered

Shots faced
45
Save %
88.9
Goals allowed
5
Close-range shots %
31.1
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 5, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Philadelphia Flyers

xG for / game
2.15
xG against / game
4.70
xG differential / game
-2.55

3 / 3 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Tampa Bay Lightning

xG for / game
3.06
xG against / game
2.71
xG differential / game
0.35

2 / 2 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 5, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Philadelphia Flyers

3 / 3 games covered

Attempts / game
43.7
Corsi share (%)
35.7
Fenwick share (%)
34.7
Faceoff win %
53.5
Penalties / game
4.33

Shots / game: 20.7 · Shooting: 6.5% · Avg distance: 32.3 ft

Tampa Bay Lightning

2 / 2 games covered

Attempts / game
63.0
Corsi share (%)
52.7
Fenwick share (%)
53.3
Faceoff win %
49.5
Penalties / game
4.0

Shots / game: 27.0 · Shooting: 7.4% · Avg distance: 29.2 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Philadelphia Flyers PHI
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
10Points15
0.333Points %0.682
29Goals for38
51Goals against34
-22Goal differential4
L1Current streakOT1
Road versus home
Philadelphia Flyers PHI road
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL home
7Games5
1Wins5
3Points10
-11Goal differential9
Last 10 games
Philadelphia Flyers PHI
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
3-5-2Record7-2-1
8Points15
23Goals for37
32Goals against29
-9Goal differential8
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Philadelphia Flyers PHI 3 wins
10 games reviewed
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL 7 wins
Total goals20 – 41
Goal differential -21 / +21
Goals per game2.0 / 4.1
Shots per game26.5 / 24.1
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Jan 12, 2026
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
5 - 1 26 - 21 View
Jan 10, 2026
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
7 - 2 23 - 20 View
Nov 24, 2025
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
0 - 3 20 - 18 View
Mar 17, 2025
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
0 - 2 21 - 23 View
Mar 13, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
3 - 4 20 - 29 View
Nov 7, 2024
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
2 - 1 31 - 23 View
Mar 9, 2024
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
0 - 7 25 - 26 View
Feb 27, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
2 - 6 22 - 31 View
Jan 23, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
6 - 3 21 - 32 View
Mar 7, 2023
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
2 - 5 35 - 39 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings PHI TBL