Away team
Philadelphia Flyers
28.4%
Fair American
+252
Fair decimal
3.52
Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 5, 2026
NHL matchup
Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning
View the PlayerWON model prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 5, 2026.
October 5, 2026
· 6:00 PM CST
Model favourite
Tampa Bay Lightning
at 71.6%
Prediction
Model versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Tampa Bay Lightning
71.6%
Fair American
-252
Fair decimal
1.4
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
PHI
|
Metric |
TBL
|
|---|---|---|
| 98 | Points | 106 |
| 0.598 | Points % | 0.646 |
| 250 | Goals for | 290 |
| 243 | Goals against | 231 |
| 7 | Goal differential | 59 |
| W3 | Current streak | L1 |
Road versus home
|
PHI road
|
Metric |
TBL home
|
|---|---|---|
| 41 | Games | 41 |
| 23 | Wins | 26 |
| 50 | Points | 53 |
| 9 | Goal differential | 22 |
Last 10 games
|
PHI
|
Metric |
TBL
|
|---|---|---|
| 7-3-0 | Record | 5-5-0 |
| 14 | Points | 10 |
| 36 | Goals for | 26 |
| 25 | Goals against | 30 |
| 11 | Goal differential | -4 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
PHI
3 wins
10
games reviewed
TBL
7 wins
Total goals20 – 41
Goal differential
-21
/
+21
Goals per game2.0 / 4.1
Shots per game26.5 / 24.1
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2026 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Philadelphia Flyers
|
5 - 1 | 26 - 21 | View |
| Jan 10, 2026 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Philadelphia Flyers
|
7 - 2 | 23 - 20 | View |
| Nov 24, 2025 |
Philadelphia Flyers
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
0 - 3 | 20 - 18 | View |
| Mar 17, 2025 |
Philadelphia Flyers
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
0 - 2 | 21 - 23 | View |
| Mar 13, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Philadelphia Flyers
|
3 - 4 | 20 - 29 | View |
| Nov 7, 2024 |
Philadelphia Flyers
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
2 - 1 | 31 - 23 | View |
| Mar 9, 2024 |
Philadelphia Flyers
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
0 - 7 | 25 - 26 | View |
| Feb 27, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Philadelphia Flyers
|
2 - 6 | 22 - 31 | View |
| Jan 23, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Philadelphia Flyers
|
6 - 3 | 21 - 32 | View |
| Mar 7, 2023 |
Philadelphia Flyers
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
2 - 5 | 35 - 39 | View |