Away team
Philadelphia Flyers
32.4%
Fair American
+209
Fair decimal
3.09
Philadelphia Flyers vs Montréal Canadiens prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for November 21, 2026
NHL matchup
Philadelphia Flyers at Montréal Canadiens
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for November 21, 2026.
November 21, 2026
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Montréal Canadiens at 67.6%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Montréal Canadiens
67.6%
Fair American
-209
Fair decimal
1.48
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Nov 21, 2026.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Net units
- 0.00
- ROI
- —
Value Picks
- Bets
- 4
- Record
- 2-2
- Net units
- 1.36
- ROI
- 34.0%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 0-3
- Net units
- -3.00
- ROI
- -100.0%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 6-1
- Net units
- 3.39
- ROI
- 48.4%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 2-1
- Net units
- 0.83
- ROI
- 27.6%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 9
- Record
- 6-3
- Net units
- 1.39
- ROI
- 15.4%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 21. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Philadelphia Flyers
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
49:44 together · 7 games
- Corsi for / against
- 40 / 38
- Fenwick for / against
- 22 / 25
- Corsi share
- 51.3%
- Fenwick share
- 46.8%
- xG for / against
- 2.09 / 1.31
Defense pair
106:21 together · 7 games
- Corsi for / against
- 96 / 92
- Fenwick for / against
- 69 / 59
- Corsi share
- 51.1%
- Fenwick share
- 53.9%
- xG for / against
- 4.34 / 3.84
Montréal Canadiens
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
82:28 together · 9 games
- Corsi for / against
- 99 / 45
- Fenwick for / against
- 71 / 35
- Corsi share
- 68.8%
- Fenwick share
- 67.0%
- xG for / against
- 5.26 / 1.88
Defense pair
108:21 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 165 / 82
- Fenwick for / against
- 127 / 61
- Corsi share
- 66.8%
- Fenwick share
- 67.6%
- xG for / against
- 7.88 / 4.78
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Philadelphia Flyers
Expected starter unavailable.
Montréal Canadiens
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Joseph Woll
Philadelphia Flyers · Last start: Oct 24
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 134
- Save %
- 88.8
- Goals allowed
- 15
- Close-range shots %
- 32.1
Jacob Fowler
Montréal Canadiens · Last start: Oct 25
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 127
- Save %
- 93.7
- Goals allowed
- 8
- Close-range shots %
- 27.6
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 21, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Philadelphia Flyers
- xG for / game
- 2.65
- xG against / game
- 3.44
- xG differential / game
- -0.79
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Montréal Canadiens
- xG for / game
- 3.47
- xG against / game
- 3.11
- xG differential / game
- 0.36
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 21, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Philadelphia Flyers
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 50.2
- Corsi share (%)
- 45.7
- Fenwick share (%)
- 44.6
- Faceoff win %
- 49.8
- Penalties / game
- 4.2
Shots / game: 23.3 · Shooting: 8.6% · Avg distance: 31.2 ft
Montréal Canadiens
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 62.6
- Corsi share (%)
- 54.2
- Fenwick share (%)
- 54.5
- Faceoff win %
- 52.8
- Penalties / game
- 5.5
Shots / game: 29.2 · Shooting: 10.6% · Avg distance: 33.2 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
PHI
|
Metric |
MTL
|
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Points | 14 |
| 0.346 | Points % | 0.636 |
| 24 | Goals for | 36 |
| 42 | Goals against | 36 |
| -18 | Goal differential | 0 |
| L1 | Current streak | W2 |
Road versus home
|
PHI road
|
Metric |
MTL home
|
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Games | 6 |
| 1 | Wins | 3 |
| 3 | Points | 7 |
| -8 | Goal differential | -3 |
Last 10 games
|
PHI
|
Metric |
MTL
|
|---|---|---|
| 3-6-1 | Record | 5-3-2 |
| 7 | Points | 12 |
| 20 | Goals for | 33 |
| 29 | Goals against | 34 |
| -9 | Goal differential | -1 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
PHI
6 wins
10
games reviewed
MTL
4 wins
Total goals34 – 35
Goal differential
-1
/
+1
Goals per game3.4 / 3.5
Shots per game30.0 / 24.6
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2026 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Philadelphia Flyers
|
2 - 4 | 29 - 25 | View |
| Dec 16, 2025 |
Philadelphia Flyers
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
4 - 1 | 21 - 22 | View |
| Nov 4, 2025 |
Philadelphia Flyers
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
5 - 4 | 42 - 20 | View |
| Apr 5, 2025 |
Philadelphia Flyers
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
2 - 3 | 24 - 26 | View |
| Mar 27, 2025 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Philadelphia Flyers
|
4 - 6 | 30 - 30 | View |
| Oct 27, 2024 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Philadelphia Flyers
|
4 - 3 | 24 - 26 | View |
| Apr 9, 2024 |
Philadelphia Flyers
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
3 - 9 | 36 - 30 | View |
| Mar 28, 2024 |
Philadelphia Flyers
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
1 - 4 | 30 - 17 | View |
| Jan 10, 2024 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Philadelphia Flyers
|
2 - 3 | 19 - 39 | View |
| Mar 28, 2023 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Philadelphia Flyers
|
2 - 3 | 29 - 27 | View |