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Philadelphia Flyers vs Detroit Red Wings prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 15, 2026

NHL matchup

Philadelphia Flyers at Detroit Red Wings

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 15, 2026.

October 15, 2026 · 6:30 PM CST
Away

Philadelphia Flyers

3-7-4

1
Final
Home

Detroit Red Wings

5-4-3

2 Model pick
Model V2 pick: Detroit Red Wings at 68.7% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Philadelphia Flyers logo
Away team

Philadelphia Flyers

31.3%
Fair American +219
Fair decimal 3.19
Best market +120 · Bovada
Market implied 45.5%
Edge -14.2%
Expected value -31.1%
Calculate value
Detroit Red Wings logo
Home team

Detroit Red Wings

68.7%
Fair American -219
Fair decimal 1.46
Best market -134 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 57.3%
Edge +11.4%
Expected value +20.0%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 15, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 15. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Philadelphia Flyers

8 / 8 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

41:29 together · 3 games

xG share26.3%
Corsi for / against
35 / 66
Fenwick for / against
28 / 54
Corsi share
34.7%
Fenwick share
34.1%
xG for / against
1.29 / 3.62
All observed combinations

Detroit Red Wings

6 / 6 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

49:57 together · 6 games

xG share62.2%
Corsi for / against
55 / 36
Fenwick for / against
37 / 21
Corsi share
60.4%
Fenwick share
63.8%
xG for / against
2.02 / 1.23
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Philadelphia Flyers

Joseph Woll 50.7%
Other eligible goalies

Why Joseph Woll?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Team win pct before
+0.694
Goalie win pct before
-0.303
Started last game
+0.288
Prev save pct
-0.241
Team played yesterday
-0.183
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 15, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Detroit Red Wings

John Gibson 60.1%
Other eligible goalies

Why John Gibson?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+0.886
Team win pct before
+0.485
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.438
Goalie win pct before
-0.312
Rolling 5 game avg save pct
-0.299
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 15, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Dan Vladar

Philadelphia Flyers · Last start: Oct 13

4 / 4 appearances covered

Shots faced
136
Save %
87.5
Goals allowed
17
Close-range shots %
32.4

John Gibson

Detroit Red Wings · Last start: Oct 13

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
124
Save %
86.3
Goals allowed
17
Close-range shots %
35.5
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 15, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Philadelphia Flyers

xG for / game
2.30
xG against / game
3.95
xG differential / game
-1.65

8 / 8 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Detroit Red Wings

xG for / game
3.25
xG against / game
3.44
xG differential / game
-0.20

6 / 6 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 15, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Philadelphia Flyers

8 / 8 games covered

Attempts / game
45.8
Corsi share (%)
40.6
Fenwick share (%)
39.5
Faceoff win %
51.8
Penalties / game
4.62

Shots / game: 20.8 · Shooting: 6.0% · Avg distance: 32.9 ft

Detroit Red Wings

6 / 6 games covered

Attempts / game
62.7
Corsi share (%)
51.9
Fenwick share (%)
51.9
Faceoff win %
49.6
Penalties / game
4.67

Shots / game: 31.8 · Shooting: 7.3% · Avg distance: 34.3 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Philadelphia Flyers PHI
Metric
Detroit Red Wings DET
10Points13
0.357Points %0.542
27Goals for33
46Goals against37
-19Goal differential-4
OT1Current streakW1
Road versus home
Philadelphia Flyers PHI road
Metric
Detroit Red Wings DET home
6Games7
1Wins3
3Points7
-8Goal differential-3
Last 10 games
Philadelphia Flyers PHI
Metric
Detroit Red Wings DET
3-5-2Record5-2-3
8Points13
22Goals for31
29Goals against32
-7Goal differential-1
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Philadelphia Flyers PHI 5 wins
10 games reviewed
Detroit Red Wings DET 5 wins
Total goals30 – 31
Goal differential -1 / +1
Goals per game3.0 / 3.1
Shots per game29.7 / 26.9
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Apr 9, 2026
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
3 - 6 27 - 22 View
Apr 2, 2026
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
4 - 2 19 - 34 View
Mar 28, 2026
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
5 - 3 26 - 35 View
Jan 21, 2025
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
1 - 2 28 - 26 View
Dec 18, 2024
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
4 - 6 19 - 24 View
Dec 12, 2024
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
1 - 4 26 - 36 View
Jan 25, 2024
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
0 - 3 30 - 17 View
Dec 22, 2023
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
6 - 7 43 - 37 View
Dec 16, 2023
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
0 - 1 32 - 34 View
Mar 25, 2023
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
0 - 3 29 - 22 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings PHI DET