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Ottawa Senators vs Winnipeg Jets prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for November 17, 2026

NHL matchup

Ottawa Senators at Winnipeg Jets

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for November 17, 2026.

November 17, 2026 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Ottawa Senators

8-4-0

47.2%
at
Home

Winnipeg Jets

4-4-3

52.8% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Winnipeg Jets at 52.8%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Ottawa Senators logo
Away team

Ottawa Senators

47.2%
Fair American +112
Fair decimal 2.12
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Nov 17, 2026.

Winnipeg Jets

All Model Picks

Bets
4
Record
1-3
Net units
-2.07
ROI
-51.9%

Value Picks

Bets
6
Record
2-4
Net units
-0.82
ROI
-13.7%

Market Favourite

Bets
4
Record
1-3
Net units
-2.07
ROI
-51.9%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 17. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Ottawa Senators

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

39:23 together · 8 games

xG share47.8%
Corsi for / against
35 / 53
Fenwick for / against
25 / 39
Corsi share
39.8%
Fenwick share
39.1%
xG for / against
1.87 / 2.05
Defense pair

70:48 together · 9 games

xG share67.1%
Corsi for / against
84 / 65
Fenwick for / against
58 / 37
Corsi share
56.4%
Fenwick share
61.1%
xG for / against
4.13 / 2.03
All observed combinations

Winnipeg Jets

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

135:56 together · 10 games

xG share50.6%
Corsi for / against
159 / 130
Fenwick for / against
120 / 104
Corsi share
55.0%
Fenwick share
53.6%
xG for / against
7.78 / 7.59
Defense pair

121:50 together · 10 games

xG share47.1%
Corsi for / against
114 / 112
Fenwick for / against
83 / 81
Corsi share
50.4%
Fenwick share
50.6%
xG for / against
4.74 / 5.31
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Jonas Johansson

Ottawa Senators · Last start: Oct 24

1 / 1 appearances covered

Shots faced
29
Save %
86.2
Goals allowed
4
Close-range shots %
37.9

Stuart Skinner

Winnipeg Jets · Last start: Oct 25

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
136
Save %
90.4
Goals allowed
13
Close-range shots %
38.2
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 17, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Ottawa Senators

xG for / game
2.85
xG against / game
2.78
xG differential / game
0.07

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Winnipeg Jets

xG for / game
2.87
xG against / game
3.38
xG differential / game
-0.51

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 17, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Ottawa Senators

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
54.6
Corsi share (%)
48.4
Fenwick share (%)
48.9
Faceoff win %
52.3
Penalties / game
4.9

Shots / game: 25.2 · Shooting: 11.5% · Avg distance: 32.3 ft

Winnipeg Jets

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
56.6
Corsi share (%)
48.6
Fenwick share (%)
47.4
Faceoff win %
45.1
Penalties / game
2.9

Shots / game: 26.6 · Shooting: 9.0% · Avg distance: 32.0 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Ottawa Senators OTT
Metric
Winnipeg Jets WPG
16Points11
0.667Points %0.500
38Goals for27
34Goals against31
4Goal differential-4
W1Current streakL1
Road versus home
Ottawa Senators OTT road
Metric
Winnipeg Jets WPG home
5Games6
3Wins2
6Points5
3Goal differential-3
Last 10 games
Ottawa Senators OTT
Metric
Winnipeg Jets WPG
6-4-0Record4-4-2
12Points10
31Goals for24
31Goals against27
0Goal differential-3
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Ottawa Senators OTT 4 wins
10 games reviewed
Winnipeg Jets WPG 6 wins
Total goals24 – 32
Goal differential -8 / +8
Goals per game2.4 / 3.2
Shots per game30.8 / 27.2
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Jan 3, 2026
Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
2 - 4 23 - 27 View
Dec 15, 2025
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets
3 - 2 31 - 25 View
Feb 26, 2025
Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
4 - 1 39 - 24 View
Dec 28, 2024
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets
2 - 4 35 - 23 View
Mar 30, 2024
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets
3 - 2 27 - 30 View
Jan 20, 2024
Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
2 - 1 29 - 35 View
Jan 21, 2023
Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
5 - 1 30 - 26 View
Dec 20, 2022
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets
1 - 5 36 - 24 View
Apr 10, 2022
Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
4 - 3 25 - 34 View
Mar 24, 2022
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets
5 - 2 33 - 24 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
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