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Ottawa Senators vs Washington Capitals prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for January 2, 2027

NHL matchup

Ottawa Senators at Washington Capitals

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for January 2, 2027.

January 2, 2027 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Ottawa Senators

8-5-1

41.5%
at
Home

Washington Capitals

8-4-0

58.5% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Washington Capitals at 58.5%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Ottawa Senators logo
Away team

Ottawa Senators

41.5%
Fair American +141
Fair decimal 2.41
Calculate value
Washington Capitals logo
Home team

Washington Capitals

58.5%
Fair American -141
Fair decimal 1.71
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Jan 2, 2027.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 2. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Ottawa Senators

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

44:20 together · 9 games

xG share42.3%
Corsi for / against
36 / 47
Fenwick for / against
22 / 41
Corsi share
43.4%
Fenwick share
34.9%
xG for / against
1.84 / 2.52
Defense pair

81:44 together · 9 games

xG share62.3%
Corsi for / against
98 / 76
Fenwick for / against
67 / 47
Corsi share
56.3%
Fenwick share
58.8%
xG for / against
4.60 / 2.78
All observed combinations

Washington Capitals

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

60:55 together · 8 games

xG share61.8%
Corsi for / against
66 / 59
Fenwick for / against
52 / 40
Corsi share
52.8%
Fenwick share
56.5%
xG for / against
3.82 / 2.37
Defense pair

86:57 together · 10 games

xG share47.0%
Corsi for / against
75 / 105
Fenwick for / against
58 / 79
Corsi share
41.7%
Fenwick share
42.3%
xG for / against
3.95 / 4.46
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Jonas Johansson

Ottawa Senators · Last start: Oct 29

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
72
Save %
86.1
Goals allowed
10
Close-range shots %
40.3

Charlie Lindgren

Washington Capitals · Last start: Oct 29

4 / 4 appearances covered

Shots faced
106
Save %
88.7
Goals allowed
12
Close-range shots %
27.4
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 2, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Ottawa Senators

xG for / game
2.87
xG against / game
2.90
xG differential / game
-0.03

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Washington Capitals

xG for / game
3.60
xG against / game
3.11
xG differential / game
0.49

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 2, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Ottawa Senators

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
55.8
Corsi share (%)
48.9
Fenwick share (%)
48.1
Faceoff win %
51.9
Penalties / game
4.7

Shots / game: 24.9 · Shooting: 12.0% · Avg distance: 32.1 ft

Washington Capitals

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
56.3
Corsi share (%)
48.4
Fenwick share (%)
50.2
Faceoff win %
49.1
Penalties / game
3.7

Shots / game: 28.6 · Shooting: 12.9% · Avg distance: 31.9 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Ottawa Senators OTT
Metric
Washington Capitals WSH
17Points16
0.607Points %0.667
44Goals for43
44Goals against37
0Goal differential6
OT1Current streakW3
Road versus home
Ottawa Senators OTT road
Metric
Washington Capitals WSH home
7Games8
3Wins6
7Points12
-1Goal differential6
Last 10 games
Ottawa Senators OTT
Metric
Washington Capitals WSH
5-4-1Record7-3-0
11Points14
32Goals for37
35Goals against32
-3Goal differential5
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Ottawa Senators OTT 6 wins
10 games reviewed
Washington Capitals WSH 4 wins
Total goals37 – 30
Goal differential +7 / -7
Goals per game3.7 / 3.0
Shots per game31.2 / 25.8
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 18, 2026
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
1 - 4 35 - 25 View
Jan 1, 2026
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
3 - 4 29 - 32 View
Oct 25, 2025
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
7 - 1 34 - 13 View
Mar 3, 2025
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
4 - 5 37 - 41 View
Jan 30, 2025
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
4 - 5 35 - 34 View
Jan 16, 2025
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
1 - 0 26 - 24 View
Apr 7, 2024
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
3 - 2 21 - 22 View
Feb 26, 2024
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
3 - 6 21 - 20 View
Oct 18, 2023
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
1 - 6 24 - 29 View
Dec 29, 2022
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
4 - 3 45 - 23 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings OTT WSH