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Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 27, 2027

NHL matchup

Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 27, 2027.

March 27, 2027 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Ottawa Senators

8-4-0

37.3%
at
Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

7-4-2

62.7% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Toronto Maple Leafs at 62.7%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Ottawa Senators logo
Away team

Ottawa Senators

37.3%
Fair American +168
Fair decimal 2.68
Calculate value
Toronto Maple Leafs logo
Home team

Toronto Maple Leafs

62.7%
Fair American -168
Fair decimal 1.59
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Mar 27, 2027.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 27. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Ottawa Senators

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

39:23 together · 8 games

xG share47.8%
Corsi for / against
35 / 53
Fenwick for / against
25 / 39
Corsi share
39.8%
Fenwick share
39.1%
xG for / against
1.87 / 2.05
Defense pair

70:48 together · 9 games

xG share65.9%
Corsi for / against
84 / 68
Fenwick for / against
58 / 39
Corsi share
55.3%
Fenwick share
59.8%
xG for / against
4.13 / 2.14
All observed combinations

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

104:16 together · 10 games

xG share45.0%
Corsi for / against
87 / 118
Fenwick for / against
71 / 87
Corsi share
42.4%
Fenwick share
44.9%
xG for / against
4.07 / 4.98
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Jonas Johansson

Ottawa Senators · Last start: Oct 24

1 / 1 appearances covered

Shots faced
28
Save %
85.7
Goals allowed
4
Close-range shots %
39.3

Anthony Stolarz

Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
150
Save %
90.7
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
31.3
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 27, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Ottawa Senators

xG for / game
2.85
xG against / game
2.77
xG differential / game
0.07

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Toronto Maple Leafs

xG for / game
3.20
xG against / game
3.44
xG differential / game
-0.24

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 27, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Ottawa Senators

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
54.6
Corsi share (%)
48.4
Fenwick share (%)
48.9
Faceoff win %
52.3
Penalties / game
4.9

Shots / game: 25.2 · Shooting: 11.5% · Avg distance: 32.3 ft

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
54.0
Corsi share (%)
46.0
Fenwick share (%)
48.2
Faceoff win %
53.1
Penalties / game
4.2

Shots / game: 29.0 · Shooting: 15.2% · Avg distance: 32.5 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Ottawa Senators OTT
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
16Points16
0.667Points %0.615
38Goals for50
34Goals against41
4Goal differential9
W1Current streakW4
Road versus home
Ottawa Senators OTT road
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR home
5Games8
3Wins4
6Points9
3Goal differential-1
Last 10 games
Ottawa Senators OTT
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
6-4-0Record6-2-2
12Points14
31Goals for44
31Goals against34
0Goal differential10
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Ottawa Senators OTT 9 wins
10 games reviewed
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR 1 wins
Total goals39 – 22
Goal differential +17 / -17
Goals per game3.9 / 2.2
Shots per game33.2 / 26.9
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Oct 3, 2026
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 2 29 - 29 View
Apr 15, 2026
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
1 - 3 20 - 38 View
Mar 21, 2026
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
2 - 5 14 - 43 View
Feb 28, 2026
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
5 - 2 40 - 23 View
Dec 27, 2025
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
5 - 7 31 - 33 View
Mar 15, 2025
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
4 - 2 25 - 23 View
Jan 25, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
1 - 2 29 - 23 View
Nov 12, 2024
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 0 41 - 27 View
Feb 10, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
3 - 5 35 - 32 View
Dec 27, 2023
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
4 - 2 30 - 36 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings OTT TOR