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Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 3, 2026

NHL matchup

Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 3, 2026.

October 3, 2026 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Ottawa Senators

8-4-0

3
Final
Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

7-4-2

2 Model pick
Model V2 pick: Toronto Maple Leafs at 51.9% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Ottawa Senators logo
Away team

Ottawa Senators

48.1%
Fair American +108
Fair decimal 2.08
Best market +102 · BetRivers
Market implied 49.5%
Edge -1.4%
Expected value -2.8%
Calculate value
Toronto Maple Leafs logo
Home team

Toronto Maple Leafs

51.9%
Fair American -108
Fair decimal 1.93
Best market -110 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 52.4%
Edge -0.5%
Expected value -0.9%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 3, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 3. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Ottawa Senators

No completed regular-season games in this window.

All observed combinations

Toronto Maple Leafs

2 / 2 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

24:12 together · 2 games

xG share50.4%
Corsi for / against
26 / 24
Fenwick for / against
22 / 18
Corsi share
52.0%
Fenwick share
55.0%
xG for / against
1.08 / 1.06
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Anthony Stolarz

Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Sep 30

1 / 1 appearances covered

Shots faced
27
Save %
96.3
Goals allowed
1
Close-range shots %
40.7
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 3, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Ottawa Senators

xG unavailable.

0 / 0 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Toronto Maple Leafs

xG for / game
2.59
xG against / game
2.53
xG differential / game
0.05

2 / 2 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 3, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Ottawa Senators

0 / 0 games covered

No current event coverage for these games.

Toronto Maple Leafs

2 / 2 games covered

Attempts / game
49.0
Corsi share (%)
44.3
Fenwick share (%)
46.9
Faceoff win %
49.5
Penalties / game
4.0

Shots / game: 27.0 · Shooting: 7.4% · Avg distance: 30.4 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Ottawa Senators OTT
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
16Points16
0.667Points %0.615
38Goals for50
34Goals against41
4Goal differential9
W1Current streakW4
Road versus home
Ottawa Senators OTT road
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR home
5Games8
3Wins4
6Points9
3Goal differential-1
Last 10 games
Ottawa Senators OTT
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
6-4-0Record6-2-2
12Points14
31Goals for44
31Goals against34
0Goal differential10
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Ottawa Senators OTT 8 wins
10 games reviewed
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR 2 wins
Total goals39 – 24
Goal differential +15 / -15
Goals per game3.9 / 2.4
Shots per game34.4 / 26.2
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Apr 15, 2026
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
1 - 3 20 - 38 View
Mar 21, 2026
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
2 - 5 14 - 43 View
Feb 28, 2026
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
5 - 2 40 - 23 View
Dec 27, 2025
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
5 - 7 31 - 33 View
Mar 15, 2025
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
4 - 2 25 - 23 View
Jan 25, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
1 - 2 29 - 23 View
Nov 12, 2024
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 0 41 - 27 View
Feb 10, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
3 - 5 35 - 32 View
Dec 27, 2023
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
4 - 2 30 - 36 View
Dec 7, 2023
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
4 - 3 22 - 41 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings OTT TOR