Forward trio
93:41 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 97 / 83
- Fenwick for / against
- 69 / 52
- Corsi share
- 53.9%
- Fenwick share
- 57.0%
- xG for / against
- 4.34 / 3.17
Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for February 28, 2026
NHL matchup
Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for February 28, 2026.
February 28, 2026
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 prediction is not available yet for this game.
View final boxscore
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 28. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Ottawa Senators
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Defense pair
145:06 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 133 / 103
- Fenwick for / against
- 102 / 69
- Corsi share
- 56.4%
- Fenwick share
- 59.6%
- xG for / against
- 7.38 / 3.35
Toronto Maple Leafs
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
100:43 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 108 / 99
- Fenwick for / against
- 79 / 73
- Corsi share
- 52.2%
- Fenwick share
- 52.0%
- xG for / against
- 5.52 / 4.66
Defense pair
74:11 together · 8 games
- Corsi for / against
- 68 / 67
- Fenwick for / against
- 52 / 47
- Corsi share
- 50.4%
- Fenwick share
- 52.5%
- xG for / against
- 3.67 / 2.26
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Linus Ullmark
Ottawa Senators · Last start: Feb 26
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 102
- Save %
- 88.2
- Goals allowed
- 12
- Close-range shots %
- 28.4
Joseph Woll
Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Feb 26
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 161
- Save %
- 90.1
- Goals allowed
- 16
- Close-range shots %
- 28.0
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 28, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Ottawa Senators
- xG for / game
- 3.22
- xG against / game
- 2.23
- xG differential / game
- 0.99
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Toronto Maple Leafs
- xG for / game
- 3.34
- xG against / game
- 3.30
- xG differential / game
- 0.04
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 28, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Ottawa Senators
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 56.5
- Corsi share (%)
- 52.8
- Fenwick share (%)
- 56.1
- Faceoff win %
- 54.5
- Penalties / game
- 3.2
Shots / game: 28.5 · Shooting: 11.6% · Avg distance: 31.6 ft
Toronto Maple Leafs
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 59.5
- Corsi share (%)
- 48.6
- Fenwick share (%)
- 48.6
- Faceoff win %
- 53.5
- Penalties / game
- 2.3
Shots / game: 29.3 · Shooting: 8.5% · Avg distance: 32.0 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
OTT
|
Metric |
TOR
|
|---|---|---|
| 16 | Points | 16 |
| 0.667 | Points % | 0.615 |
| 38 | Goals for | 50 |
| 34 | Goals against | 41 |
| 4 | Goal differential | 9 |
| W1 | Current streak | W4 |
Road versus home
|
OTT road
|
Metric |
TOR home
|
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Games | 8 |
| 3 | Wins | 4 |
| 6 | Points | 9 |
| 3 | Goal differential | -1 |
Last 10 games
|
OTT
|
Metric |
TOR
|
|---|---|---|
| 6-4-0 | Record | 6-2-2 |
| 12 | Points | 14 |
| 31 | Goals for | 44 |
| 31 | Goals against | 34 |
| 0 | Goal differential | 10 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
OTT
6 wins
10
games reviewed
TOR
4 wins
Total goals36 – 30
Goal differential
+6
/
-6
Goals per game3.6 / 3.0
Shots per game33.7 / 28.4
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2025 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
5 - 7 | 31 - 33 | View |
| Mar 15, 2025 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
4 - 2 | 25 - 23 | View |
| Jan 25, 2025 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Ottawa Senators
|
1 - 2 | 29 - 23 | View |
| Nov 12, 2024 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
3 - 0 | 41 - 27 | View |
| Feb 10, 2024 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Ottawa Senators
|
3 - 5 | 35 - 32 | View |
| Dec 27, 2023 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
4 - 2 | 30 - 36 | View |
| Dec 7, 2023 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Ottawa Senators
|
4 - 3 | 22 - 41 | View |
| Nov 8, 2023 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
6 - 3 | 31 - 30 | View |
| Apr 1, 2023 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Ottawa Senators
|
3 - 0 | 20 - 31 | View |
| Mar 18, 2023 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Ottawa Senators
|
5 - 4 | 29 - 52 | View |