Ottawa Senators vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 28, 2026
Get the playerWON NHL prediction for the Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning matchup on March 28, 2026. playerWON’s machine-learning model currently gives the Tampa Bay Lightning a 59.6% win probability.
🤖 Model favours Tampa Bay Lightning
(59.6%)
Compare market odds, fair odds, and value below.
March 28, 2026
Visitor Model vs Market
Ottawa Senators
40.4%
Fair American: +148
Fair Decimal: 2.48
Calculate Value →
Home Model vs Market
Tampa Bay Lightning
59.6%
Fair American: -148
Fair Decimal: 1.68
Calculate Value →
📊 Season Overview
|
OTT
|
Metric |
TBL
|
|---|---|---|
| 99 | Points | 106 |
| 0.604 | Points % | 0.646 |
| 278 | Goals For | 290 |
| 246 | Goals Against | 231 |
| 32 | Goal Differential | 59 |
| W1 | Current Streak | L1 |
🚍 Road vs 🏠 Home
|
OTT (Road)
|
Metric |
TBL (Home)
|
|---|---|---|
| 41 | Games | 41 |
| 21 | Wins | 26 |
| 47 | Points | 53 |
| 1 | Goal Differential | 22 |
🔥 Last 10 Games
|
OTT
|
Metric |
TBL
|
|---|---|---|
| 6-3-1 | Record | 5-5-0 |
| 13 | Points | 10 |
| 36 | Goals For | 26 |
| 26 | Goals Against | 30 |
| 10 | Goal Differential | -4 |
🥅 Last 10 Head-to-Head Games
|
OTT
|
H2H Summary |
TBL
|
|---|---|---|
| 7-3 | Record | 3-7 |
| 39 | Total Goals | 34 |
| +5 | Goal Differential | -5 |
| 3.9 | Goals / Game | 3.4 |
| 29.8 | Shots / Game | 29.2 |
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 |
Ottawa Senators
@
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
|
5 - 4 | 34 - 25 | View |
| Apr 3, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
Ottawa Senators
@
|
1 - 2 | 32 - 19 | View |
| Feb 6, 2025 |
Ottawa Senators
@
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
|
1 - 5 | 28 - 31 | View |
| Feb 4, 2025 |
Ottawa Senators
@
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
|
3 - 4 | 28 - 38 | View |
| Oct 19, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
Ottawa Senators
@
|
4 - 5 | 29 - 28 | View |
| Apr 11, 2024 |
Ottawa Senators
@
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
|
3 - 2 | 27 - 26 | View |
| Feb 19, 2024 |
Ottawa Senators
@
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
|
4 - 2 | 28 - 25 | View |
| Nov 4, 2023 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
Ottawa Senators
@
|
6 - 4 | 38 - 28 | View |
| Oct 15, 2023 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
Ottawa Senators
@
|
2 - 5 | 24 - 38 | View |
| Apr 8, 2023 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
Ottawa Senators
@
|
4 - 7 | 24 - 40 | View |
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s machine-learning model, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.