Forward trio
90:43 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 107 / 63
- Fenwick for / against
- 78 / 46
- Corsi share
- 62.9%
- Fenwick share
- 62.9%
- xG for / against
- 5.77 / 3.25
Ottawa Senators vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 28, 2026
NHL matchup
Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 28, 2026.
March 28, 2026
· 12:00 PM CST
Model V2 prediction is not available yet for this game.
View final boxscore
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 28. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Ottawa Senators
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Defense pair
109:02 together · 8 games
- Corsi for / against
- 85 / 106
- Fenwick for / against
- 63 / 74
- Corsi share
- 44.5%
- Fenwick share
- 46.0%
- xG for / against
- 4.73 / 5.65
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
82:23 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 117 / 68
- Fenwick for / against
- 86 / 57
- Corsi share
- 63.2%
- Fenwick share
- 60.1%
- xG for / against
- 6.26 / 3.96
Defense pair
126:28 together · 9 games
- Corsi for / against
- 151 / 86
- Fenwick for / against
- 107 / 74
- Corsi share
- 63.7%
- Fenwick share
- 59.1%
- xG for / against
- 6.24 / 4.29
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Linus Ullmark
Ottawa Senators · Last start: Mar 26
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 135
- Save %
- 90.4
- Goals allowed
- 13
- Close-range shots %
- 29.6
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Mar 26
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 111
- Save %
- 88.3
- Goals allowed
- 13
- Close-range shots %
- 27.0
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 28, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Ottawa Senators
- xG for / game
- 3.67
- xG against / game
- 2.66
- xG differential / game
- 1.01
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Tampa Bay Lightning
- xG for / game
- 3.00
- xG against / game
- 2.80
- xG differential / game
- 0.20
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 28, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Ottawa Senators
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 61.1
- Corsi share (%)
- 54.5
- Fenwick share (%)
- 55.2
- Faceoff win %
- 54.1
- Penalties / game
- 3.6
Shots / game: 30.0 · Shooting: 10.0% · Avg distance: 31.3 ft
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 60.7
- Corsi share (%)
- 54.4
- Fenwick share (%)
- 51.2
- Faceoff win %
- 51.8
- Penalties / game
- 5.2
Shots / game: 27.4 · Shooting: 16.1% · Avg distance: 32.1 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
OTT
|
Metric |
TBL
|
|---|---|---|
| 16 | Points | 15 |
| 0.615 | Points % | 0.682 |
| 39 | Goals for | 38 |
| 38 | Goals against | 34 |
| 1 | Goal differential | 4 |
| L1 | Current streak | OT1 |
Road versus home
|
OTT road
|
Metric |
TBL home
|
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Games | 5 |
| 3 | Wins | 5 |
| 6 | Points | 10 |
| 0 | Goal differential | 9 |
Last 10 games
|
OTT
|
Metric |
TBL
|
|---|---|---|
| 6-4-0 | Record | 7-2-1 |
| 12 | Points | 15 |
| 29 | Goals for | 37 |
| 30 | Goals against | 29 |
| -1 | Goal differential | 8 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
OTT
7 wins
10
games reviewed
TBL
3 wins
Total goals39 – 34
Goal differential
+5
/
-5
Goals per game3.9 / 3.4
Shots per game29.8 / 29.2
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
5 - 4 | 34 - 25 | View |
| Apr 3, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Ottawa Senators
|
1 - 2 | 32 - 19 | View |
| Feb 6, 2025 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
1 - 5 | 28 - 31 | View |
| Feb 4, 2025 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
3 - 4 | 28 - 38 | View |
| Oct 19, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Ottawa Senators
|
4 - 5 | 29 - 28 | View |
| Apr 11, 2024 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
3 - 2 | 27 - 26 | View |
| Feb 19, 2024 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
4 - 2 | 28 - 25 | View |
| Nov 4, 2023 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Ottawa Senators
|
6 - 4 | 38 - 28 | View |
| Oct 15, 2023 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Ottawa Senators
|
2 - 5 | 24 - 38 | View |
| Apr 8, 2023 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Ottawa Senators
|
4 - 7 | 24 - 40 | View |