Away team
Ottawa Senators
40.4%
Fair American
+148
Fair decimal
2.48
Ottawa Senators vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 28, 2026
NHL matchup
Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning
View the PlayerWON model prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 28, 2026.
March 28, 2026
· 12:00 PM CST
Model favourite
Tampa Bay Lightning
at 59.6%
Prediction
Model versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Tampa Bay Lightning
59.6%
Fair American
-148
Fair decimal
1.68
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
OTT
|
Metric |
TBL
|
|---|---|---|
| 99 | Points | 106 |
| 0.604 | Points % | 0.646 |
| 278 | Goals for | 290 |
| 246 | Goals against | 231 |
| 32 | Goal differential | 59 |
| W1 | Current streak | L1 |
Road versus home
|
OTT road
|
Metric |
TBL home
|
|---|---|---|
| 41 | Games | 41 |
| 21 | Wins | 26 |
| 47 | Points | 53 |
| 1 | Goal differential | 22 |
Last 10 games
|
OTT
|
Metric |
TBL
|
|---|---|---|
| 6-3-1 | Record | 5-5-0 |
| 13 | Points | 10 |
| 36 | Goals for | 26 |
| 26 | Goals against | 30 |
| 10 | Goal differential | -4 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
OTT
7 wins
10
games reviewed
TBL
3 wins
Total goals39 – 34
Goal differential
+5
/
-5
Goals per game3.9 / 3.4
Shots per game29.8 / 29.2
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
5 - 4 | 34 - 25 | View |
| Apr 3, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Ottawa Senators
|
1 - 2 | 32 - 19 | View |
| Feb 6, 2025 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
1 - 5 | 28 - 31 | View |
| Feb 4, 2025 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
3 - 4 | 28 - 38 | View |
| Oct 19, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Ottawa Senators
|
4 - 5 | 29 - 28 | View |
| Apr 11, 2024 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
3 - 2 | 27 - 26 | View |
| Feb 19, 2024 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
4 - 2 | 28 - 25 | View |
| Nov 4, 2023 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Ottawa Senators
|
6 - 4 | 38 - 28 | View |
| Oct 15, 2023 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Ottawa Senators
|
2 - 5 | 24 - 38 | View |
| Apr 8, 2023 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Ottawa Senators
|
4 - 7 | 24 - 40 | View |