Away team
Ottawa Senators
40.7%
Fair American
+146
Fair decimal
2.46
Ottawa Senators vs Pittsburgh Penguins prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for November 14, 2026
NHL matchup
Ottawa Senators at Pittsburgh Penguins
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for November 14, 2026.
November 14, 2026
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Pittsburgh Penguins at 59.3%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Pittsburgh Penguins
59.3%
Fair American
-146
Fair decimal
1.69
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Nov 14, 2026.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 5
- Record
- 3-2
- Net units
- 0.10
- ROI
- 1.9%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 2
- Record
- 1-1
- Net units
- -0.17
- ROI
- -8.7%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 5-3
- Net units
- 0.63
- ROI
- 7.8%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 5-3
- Net units
- 2.59
- ROI
- 32.4%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 4-4
- Net units
- 0.85
- ROI
- 10.7%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 4
- Record
- 2-2
- Net units
- -0.38
- ROI
- -9.5%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 14. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Ottawa Senators
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
39:23 together · 8 games
- Corsi for / against
- 35 / 53
- Fenwick for / against
- 25 / 39
- Corsi share
- 39.8%
- Fenwick share
- 39.1%
- xG for / against
- 1.87 / 2.05
Defense pair
71:06 together · 9 games
- Corsi for / against
- 84 / 68
- Fenwick for / against
- 58 / 39
- Corsi share
- 55.3%
- Fenwick share
- 59.8%
- xG for / against
- 4.13 / 2.20
Pittsburgh Penguins
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
62:36 together · 7 games
- Corsi for / against
- 62 / 60
- Fenwick for / against
- 44 / 50
- Corsi share
- 50.8%
- Fenwick share
- 46.8%
- xG for / against
- 3.72 / 4.52
Defense pair
83:42 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 96 / 88
- Fenwick for / against
- 70 / 70
- Corsi share
- 52.2%
- Fenwick share
- 50.0%
- xG for / against
- 3.95 / 5.54
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Ottawa Senators
Expected starter unavailable.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Jonas Johansson
Ottawa Senators · Last start: Oct 24
1 / 1 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 29
- Save %
- 86.2
- Goals allowed
- 4
- Close-range shots %
- 37.9
Arturs Silovs
Pittsburgh Penguins · Last start: Oct 24
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 138
- Save %
- 90.6
- Goals allowed
- 13
- Close-range shots %
- 32.6
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 14, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Ottawa Senators
- xG for / game
- 2.85
- xG against / game
- 2.78
- xG differential / game
- 0.07
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Pittsburgh Penguins
- xG for / game
- 3.15
- xG against / game
- 3.33
- xG differential / game
- -0.18
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 14, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Ottawa Senators
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 54.6
- Corsi share (%)
- 48.4
- Fenwick share (%)
- 48.9
- Faceoff win %
- 52.3
- Penalties / game
- 4.9
Shots / game: 25.2 · Shooting: 11.5% · Avg distance: 32.3 ft
Pittsburgh Penguins
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 57.9
- Corsi share (%)
- 50.9
- Fenwick share (%)
- 50.1
- Faceoff win %
- 46.6
- Penalties / game
- 2.9
Shots / game: 26.5 · Shooting: 9.8% · Avg distance: 31.3 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
OTT
|
Metric |
PIT
|
|---|---|---|
| 16 | Points | 11 |
| 0.667 | Points % | 0.458 |
| 38 | Goals for | 40 |
| 34 | Goals against | 40 |
| 4 | Goal differential | 0 |
| W1 | Current streak | W2 |
Road versus home
|
OTT road
|
Metric |
PIT home
|
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Games | 5 |
| 3 | Wins | 4 |
| 6 | Points | 8 |
| 3 | Goal differential | 6 |
Last 10 games
|
OTT
|
Metric |
PIT
|
|---|---|---|
| 6-4-0 | Record | 3-6-1 |
| 12 | Points | 7 |
| 31 | Goals for | 27 |
| 31 | Goals against | 35 |
| 0 | Goal differential | -8 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
OTT
8 wins
10
games reviewed
PIT
2 wins
Total goals32 – 17
Goal differential
+15
/
-15
Goals per game3.2 / 1.7
Shots per game28.2 / 33.0
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2026 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Ottawa Senators
|
4 - 3 | 38 - 29 | View |
| Feb 2, 2026 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
3 - 2 | 31 - 16 | View |
| Dec 18, 2025 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Ottawa Senators
|
0 - 4 | 24 - 26 | View |
| Mar 30, 2025 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
0 - 1 | 31 - 35 | View |
| Jan 11, 2025 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
5 - 0 | 22 - 29 | View |
| Dec 14, 2024 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Ottawa Senators
|
2 - 3 | 27 - 31 | View |
| Mar 12, 2024 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Ottawa Senators
|
1 - 2 | 35 - 39 | View |
| Dec 23, 2023 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Ottawa Senators
|
4 - 5 | 34 - 26 | View |
| Oct 28, 2023 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
5 - 2 | 26 - 43 | View |
| Mar 20, 2023 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
2 - 1 | 21 - 49 | View |