Away team
Ottawa Senators
39.7%
Fair American
+152
Fair decimal
2.52
Ottawa Senators vs New York Islanders prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for December 27, 2026
NHL matchup
Ottawa Senators at New York Islanders
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for December 27, 2026.
December 27, 2026
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
New York Islanders at 60.3%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
New York Islanders
60.3%
Fair American
-152
Fair decimal
1.66
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Dec 27, 2026.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 5
- Record
- 3-2
- Net units
- 0.10
- ROI
- 1.9%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 2
- Record
- 1-1
- Net units
- -0.17
- ROI
- -8.7%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 5-3
- Net units
- 0.63
- ROI
- 7.8%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 5
- Record
- 3-2
- Net units
- -0.28
- ROI
- -5.6%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 2-5
- Net units
- -3.13
- ROI
- -44.8%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 3-0
- Net units
- 1.72
- ROI
- 57.4%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 27. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Ottawa Senators
This selection is unavailable until complete validated shift records cover every selected game.
All observed combinationsNew York Islanders
This selection is unavailable until complete validated shift records cover every selected game.
All observed combinationsAmbiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Ottawa Senators
Expected starter unavailable.
New York Islanders
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Jonas Johansson
Ottawa Senators · Last start: Oct 27
1 / 2 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 29
- Save %
- 86.2
- Goals allowed
- 4
- Close-range shots %
- 37.9
Semyon Varlamov
New York Islanders · Last start: Oct 27
3 / 4 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 69
- Save %
- 89.9
- Goals allowed
- 7
- Close-range shots %
- 40.6
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 27, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Ottawa Senators
- xG for / game
- 2.87
- xG against / game
- 2.67
- xG differential / game
- 0.20
9 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
New York Islanders
- xG for / game
- 2.86
- xG against / game
- 3.27
- xG differential / game
- -0.41
9 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 27, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Ottawa Senators
9 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 54.9
- Corsi share (%)
- 48.8
- Fenwick share (%)
- 49.5
- Faceoff win %
- 52.3
- Penalties / game
- 4.44
Shots / game: 25.2 · Shooting: 11.5% · Avg distance: 32.0 ft
New York Islanders
9 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 54.4
- Corsi share (%)
- 50.3
- Fenwick share (%)
- 49.6
- Faceoff win %
- 55.9
- Penalties / game
- 4.44
Shots / game: 25.2 · Shooting: 11.0% · Avg distance: 33.7 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
OTT
|
Metric |
NYI
|
|---|---|---|
| 16 | Points | 14 |
| 0.615 | Points % | 0.583 |
| 39 | Goals for | 36 |
| 38 | Goals against | 32 |
| 1 | Goal differential | 4 |
| L1 | Current streak | W1 |
Road versus home
|
OTT road
|
Metric |
NYI home
|
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Games | 6 |
| 3 | Wins | 4 |
| 6 | Points | 9 |
| 0 | Goal differential | 8 |
Last 10 games
|
OTT
|
Metric |
NYI
|
|---|---|---|
| 6-4-0 | Record | 5-3-2 |
| 12 | Points | 12 |
| 29 | Goals for | 29 |
| 30 | Goals against | 30 |
| -1 | Goal differential | -1 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
OTT
5 wins
10
games reviewed
NYI
5 wins
Total goals27 – 27
Goal differential
0
/
0
Goals per game2.7 / 2.7
Shots per game28.9 / 24.5
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 |
New York Islanders
at
Ottawa Senators
|
1 - 2 | 21 - 19 | View |
| Apr 11, 2026 |
Ottawa Senators
at
New York Islanders
|
3 - 0 | 16 - 23 | View |
| Mar 19, 2026 |
New York Islanders
at
Ottawa Senators
|
2 - 3 | 19 - 26 | View |
| Oct 18, 2025 |
New York Islanders
at
Ottawa Senators
|
5 - 4 | 23 - 32 | View |
| Jan 14, 2025 |
Ottawa Senators
at
New York Islanders
|
2 - 0 | 27 - 24 | View |
| Dec 8, 2024 |
New York Islanders
at
Ottawa Senators
|
4 - 2 | 13 - 31 | View |
| Nov 7, 2024 |
New York Islanders
at
Ottawa Senators
|
4 - 2 | 25 - 30 | View |
| Mar 16, 2024 |
Ottawa Senators
at
New York Islanders
|
4 - 3 | 30 - 33 | View |
| Nov 24, 2023 |
New York Islanders
at
Ottawa Senators
|
5 - 3 | 26 - 31 | View |
| Oct 26, 2023 |
Ottawa Senators
at
New York Islanders
|
2 - 3 | 47 - 38 | View |