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Ottawa Senators vs New Jersey Devils prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 12, 2026

NHL matchup

Ottawa Senators at New Jersey Devils

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 12, 2026.

October 12, 2026 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Ottawa Senators

8-5-0

4
Final
Home

New Jersey Devils

8-4-0

1 Model pick
Model V2 pick: New Jersey Devils at 67.8% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Ottawa Senators logo
Away team

Ottawa Senators

32.2%
Fair American +211
Fair decimal 3.11
Best market +116 · BetRivers
Market implied 46.3%
Edge -14.1%
Expected value -30.4%
Calculate value
New Jersey Devils logo
Home team

New Jersey Devils

67.8%
Fair American -211
Fair decimal 1.47
Best market -122 · FanDuel
Market implied 55.0%
Edge +12.8%
Expected value +23.4%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 12, 2026.

Ottawa Senators

All Model Picks

Bets
2
Record
1-1
Net units
-0.40
ROI
-19.9%

Value Picks

Bets
1
Record
0-1
Net units
-1.00
ROI
-100.0%

Market Favourite

Bets
3
Record
3-0
Net units
2.13
ROI
71.1%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 12. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Ottawa Senators

5 / 5 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

35:21 together · 5 games

xG share45.8%
Corsi for / against
34 / 31
Fenwick for / against
23 / 24
Corsi share
52.3%
Fenwick share
48.9%
xG for / against
1.05 / 1.24
Defense pair

69:11 together · 5 games

xG share53.3%
Corsi for / against
78 / 77
Fenwick for / against
58 / 52
Corsi share
50.3%
Fenwick share
52.7%
xG for / against
4.03 / 3.53
All observed combinations

New Jersey Devils

4 / 4 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

37:55 together · 4 games

xG share63.5%
Corsi for / against
42 / 25
Fenwick for / against
33 / 15
Corsi share
62.7%
Fenwick share
68.8%
xG for / against
1.99 / 1.15
Defense pair

60:55 together · 4 games

xG share58.1%
Corsi for / against
81 / 43
Fenwick for / against
57 / 32
Corsi share
65.3%
Fenwick share
64.0%
xG for / against
3.41 / 2.46
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Ottawa Senators

Linus Ullmark 72.2%
Other eligible goalies

Why Linus Ullmark?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+0.860
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.416
Team win pct before
-0.314
Started last game
-0.280
Goalie win pct before
+0.245
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 12, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

New Jersey Devils

Jake Allen 77.3%
Other eligible goalies

Why Jake Allen?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+0.846
Started last game
-0.271
Prev save pct
+0.255
Won previous appearance
+0.255
Goalie win pct before
+0.165
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 12, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Linus Ullmark

Ottawa Senators · Last start: Oct 10

4 / 4 appearances covered

Shots faced
86
Save %
94.2
Goals allowed
5
Close-range shots %
38.4

Jake Allen

New Jersey Devils · Last start: Oct 10

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
77
Save %
89.6
Goals allowed
8
Close-range shots %
35.1
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 12, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Ottawa Senators

xG for / game
3.09
xG against / game
3.02
xG differential / game
0.06

5 / 5 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

New Jersey Devils

xG for / game
3.70
xG against / game
3.17
xG differential / game
0.53

4 / 4 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 12, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Ottawa Senators

5 / 5 games covered

Attempts / game
54.2
Corsi share (%)
48.7
Fenwick share (%)
49.4
Faceoff win %
53.1
Penalties / game
5.8

Shots / game: 24.8 · Shooting: 11.3% · Avg distance: 31.6 ft

New Jersey Devils

4 / 4 games covered

Attempts / game
74.2
Corsi share (%)
60.2
Fenwick share (%)
58.1
Faceoff win %
49.4
Penalties / game
2.75

Shots / game: 37.8 · Shooting: 6.6% · Avg distance: 29.8 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Ottawa Senators OTT
Metric
New Jersey Devils NJD
16Points16
0.615Points %0.667
39Goals for41
38Goals against33
1Goal differential8
L1Current streakW4
Road versus home
Ottawa Senators OTT road
Metric
New Jersey Devils NJD home
6Games8
3Wins6
6Points12
0Goal differential11
Last 10 games
Ottawa Senators OTT
Metric
New Jersey Devils NJD
6-4-0Record7-3-0
12Points14
29Goals for38
30Goals against25
-1Goal differential13
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Ottawa Senators OTT 4 wins
10 games reviewed
New Jersey Devils NJD 6 wins
Total goals29 – 32
Goal differential -3 / +3
Goals per game2.9 / 3.2
Shots per game28.0 / 28.9
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Apr 12, 2026
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at New Jersey Devils New Jersey Devils
3 - 4 30 - 30 View
Jan 31, 2026
New Jersey Devils New Jersey Devils at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
1 - 4 27 - 34 View
Dec 9, 2025
New Jersey Devils New Jersey Devils at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
4 - 3 32 - 38 View
Mar 22, 2025
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at New Jersey Devils New Jersey Devils
3 - 2 19 - 27 View
Jan 19, 2025
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at New Jersey Devils New Jersey Devils
2 - 1 20 - 26 View
Oct 17, 2024
New Jersey Devils New Jersey Devils at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
3 - 1 35 - 31 View
Apr 6, 2024
New Jersey Devils New Jersey Devils at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
4 - 3 27 - 28 View
Mar 23, 2024
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at New Jersey Devils New Jersey Devils
5 - 2 25 - 20 View
Dec 29, 2023
New Jersey Devils New Jersey Devils at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
6 - 2 30 - 27 View
Mar 25, 2023
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at New Jersey Devils New Jersey Devils
3 - 5 28 - 35 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings OTT NJD