Away team
Ottawa Senators
39.5%
Fair American
+153
Fair decimal
2.53
Ottawa Senators vs Montréal Canadiens prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for December 6, 2026
NHL matchup
Ottawa Senators at Montréal Canadiens
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for December 6, 2026.
December 6, 2026
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Montréal Canadiens at 60.5%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Montréal Canadiens
60.5%
Fair American
-153
Fair decimal
1.65
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Dec 6, 2026.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 5
- Record
- 3-2
- Net units
- 0.10
- ROI
- 1.9%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 2
- Record
- 1-1
- Net units
- -0.17
- ROI
- -8.7%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 5-3
- Net units
- 0.63
- ROI
- 7.8%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 6-1
- Net units
- 3.39
- ROI
- 48.4%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 2-1
- Net units
- 0.83
- ROI
- 27.6%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 9
- Record
- 6-3
- Net units
- 1.39
- ROI
- 15.4%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 6. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Ottawa Senators
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
39:23 together · 8 games
- Corsi for / against
- 35 / 53
- Fenwick for / against
- 25 / 39
- Corsi share
- 39.8%
- Fenwick share
- 39.1%
- xG for / against
- 1.87 / 2.05
Defense pair
70:48 together · 9 games
- Corsi for / against
- 84 / 68
- Fenwick for / against
- 58 / 39
- Corsi share
- 55.3%
- Fenwick share
- 59.8%
- xG for / against
- 4.13 / 2.14
Montréal Canadiens
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
82:28 together · 9 games
- Corsi for / against
- 99 / 45
- Fenwick for / against
- 71 / 35
- Corsi share
- 68.8%
- Fenwick share
- 67.0%
- xG for / against
- 5.26 / 1.88
Defense pair
108:21 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 165 / 82
- Fenwick for / against
- 127 / 61
- Corsi share
- 66.8%
- Fenwick share
- 67.6%
- xG for / against
- 7.88 / 4.78
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Ottawa Senators
Expected starter unavailable.
Montréal Canadiens
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Jonas Johansson
Ottawa Senators · Last start: Oct 24
1 / 1 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 28
- Save %
- 85.7
- Goals allowed
- 4
- Close-range shots %
- 39.3
Jacob Fowler
Montréal Canadiens · Last start: Oct 25
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 127
- Save %
- 93.7
- Goals allowed
- 8
- Close-range shots %
- 27.6
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 6, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Ottawa Senators
- xG for / game
- 2.85
- xG against / game
- 2.77
- xG differential / game
- 0.07
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Montréal Canadiens
- xG for / game
- 3.47
- xG against / game
- 3.11
- xG differential / game
- 0.36
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 6, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Ottawa Senators
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 54.6
- Corsi share (%)
- 48.4
- Fenwick share (%)
- 48.9
- Faceoff win %
- 52.3
- Penalties / game
- 4.9
Shots / game: 25.2 · Shooting: 11.5% · Avg distance: 32.3 ft
Montréal Canadiens
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 62.6
- Corsi share (%)
- 54.2
- Fenwick share (%)
- 54.5
- Faceoff win %
- 52.8
- Penalties / game
- 5.5
Shots / game: 29.2 · Shooting: 10.6% · Avg distance: 33.2 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
OTT
|
Metric |
MTL
|
|---|---|---|
| 16 | Points | 14 |
| 0.667 | Points % | 0.636 |
| 38 | Goals for | 36 |
| 34 | Goals against | 36 |
| 4 | Goal differential | 0 |
| W1 | Current streak | W2 |
Road versus home
|
OTT road
|
Metric |
MTL home
|
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Games | 6 |
| 3 | Wins | 3 |
| 6 | Points | 7 |
| 3 | Goal differential | -3 |
Last 10 games
|
OTT
|
Metric |
MTL
|
|---|---|---|
| 6-4-0 | Record | 5-3-2 |
| 12 | Points | 12 |
| 31 | Goals for | 33 |
| 31 | Goals against | 34 |
| 0 | Goal differential | -1 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
OTT
4 wins
10
games reviewed
MTL
6 wins
Total goals35 – 37
Goal differential
-2
/
+2
Goals per game3.5 / 3.7
Shots per game29.7 / 24.7
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2026 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Ottawa Senators
|
3 - 2 | 23 - 34 | View |
| Jan 17, 2026 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Ottawa Senators
|
6 - 5 | 19 - 34 | View |
| Dec 2, 2025 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
5 - 2 | 29 - 22 | View |
| Nov 1, 2025 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
3 - 4 | 17 - 27 | View |
| Apr 11, 2025 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Ottawa Senators
|
2 - 5 | 22 - 34 | View |
| Mar 18, 2025 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
3 - 6 | 25 - 33 | View |
| Feb 22, 2025 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Ottawa Senators
|
5 - 2 | 25 - 27 | View |
| Oct 12, 2024 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
1 - 4 | 25 - 26 | View |
| Apr 13, 2024 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Ottawa Senators
|
4 - 5 | 25 - 44 | View |
| Jan 23, 2024 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
4 - 1 | 28 - 25 | View |