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Ottawa Senators vs Detroit Red Wings prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 30, 2027

NHL matchup

Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 30, 2027.

March 30, 2027 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Ottawa Senators

8-5-0

40.9%
at
Home

Detroit Red Wings

5-4-3

59.1% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Detroit Red Wings at 59.1%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Ottawa Senators logo
Away team

Ottawa Senators

40.9%
Fair American +144
Fair decimal 2.44
Calculate value
Detroit Red Wings logo
Home team

Detroit Red Wings

59.1%
Fair American -144
Fair decimal 1.69
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Mar 30, 2027.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 30. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Ottawa Senators

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

39:16 together · 9 games

xG share42.5%
Corsi for / against
34 / 43
Fenwick for / against
21 / 39
Corsi share
44.2%
Fenwick share
35.0%
xG for / against
1.84 / 2.49
Defense pair

81:43 together · 9 games

xG share62.9%
Corsi for / against
98 / 76
Fenwick for / against
67 / 46
Corsi share
56.3%
Fenwick share
59.3%
xG for / against
4.60 / 2.72
All observed combinations

Detroit Red Wings

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

112:48 together · 10 games

xG share51.4%
Corsi for / against
115 / 99
Fenwick for / against
80 / 60
Corsi share
53.7%
Fenwick share
57.1%
xG for / against
3.84 / 3.62
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Jonas Johansson

Ottawa Senators · Last start: Oct 27

2 / 2 appearances covered

Shots faced
56
Save %
89.3
Goals allowed
6
Close-range shots %
33.9

Michal Postava

Detroit Red Wings · Last start: Oct 26

2 / 2 appearances covered

Shots faced
35
Save %
88.6
Goals allowed
4
Close-range shots %
28.6
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 30, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Ottawa Senators

xG for / game
2.85
xG against / game
2.73
xG differential / game
0.12

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Detroit Red Wings

xG for / game
3.35
xG against / game
3.16
xG differential / game
0.19

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 30, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Ottawa Senators

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
56.2
Corsi share (%)
49.4
Fenwick share (%)
48.9
Faceoff win %
52.4
Penalties / game
4.3

Shots / game: 25.3 · Shooting: 10.7% · Avg distance: 31.9 ft

Detroit Red Wings

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
62.5
Corsi share (%)
52.2
Fenwick share (%)
52.8
Faceoff win %
49.0
Penalties / game
4.2

Shots / game: 29.9 · Shooting: 9.7% · Avg distance: 32.7 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Ottawa Senators OTT
Metric
Detroit Red Wings DET
16Points13
0.615Points %0.542
39Goals for33
38Goals against37
1Goal differential-4
L1Current streakW1
Road versus home
Ottawa Senators OTT road
Metric
Detroit Red Wings DET home
6Games7
3Wins3
6Points7
0Goal differential-3
Last 10 games
Ottawa Senators OTT
Metric
Detroit Red Wings DET
6-4-0Record5-2-3
12Points13
29Goals for31
30Goals against32
-1Goal differential-1
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Ottawa Senators OTT 5 wins
10 games reviewed
Detroit Red Wings DET 5 wins
Total goals26 – 28
Goal differential -2 / +2
Goals per game2.6 / 2.8
Shots per game27.8 / 30.5
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Oct 6, 2026
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
3 - 5 25 - 36 View
Mar 24, 2026
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
3 - 2 21 - 34 View
Feb 26, 2026
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
2 - 1 20 - 27 View
Jan 18, 2026
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
3 - 4 22 - 34 View
Jan 5, 2026
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
5 - 3 20 - 38 View
Mar 27, 2025
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
4 - 3 32 - 34 View
Mar 10, 2025
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
1 - 2 49 - 23 View
Jan 7, 2025
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
2 - 3 33 - 33 View
Dec 5, 2024
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
1 - 2 20 - 32 View
Jan 31, 2024
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
3 - 2 25 - 25 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings OTT DET