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Ottawa Senators vs Detroit Red Wings prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 6, 2026

NHL matchup

Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 6, 2026.

October 6, 2026 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Ottawa Senators

8-5-0

3 Model pick
Final
Home

Detroit Red Wings

5-4-3

5
Model V2 pick: Ottawa Senators at 54.2% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Ottawa Senators logo
Away team

Ottawa Senators

54.2%
Fair American -118
Fair decimal 1.85
Best market -104 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 51.0%
Edge +3.2%
Expected value +6.3%
Calculate value
Detroit Red Wings logo
Home team

Detroit Red Wings

45.8%
Fair American +118
Fair decimal 2.18
Best market -106 · BetRivers
Market implied 51.5%
Edge -5.7%
Expected value -11.0%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 6, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 6. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Ottawa Senators

2 / 2 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

27:14 together · 2 games

xG share54.3%
Corsi for / against
30 / 27
Fenwick for / against
25 / 20
Corsi share
52.6%
Fenwick share
55.6%
xG for / against
1.72 / 1.45
All observed combinations

Detroit Red Wings

2 / 2 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

21:42 together · 2 games

xG share32.8%
Corsi for / against
20 / 18
Fenwick for / against
13 / 17
Corsi share
52.6%
Fenwick share
43.3%
xG for / against
0.47 / 0.96
Defense pair

22:04 together · 2 games

xG share45.5%
Corsi for / against
20 / 14
Fenwick for / against
13 / 13
Corsi share
58.8%
Fenwick share
50.0%
xG for / against
0.86 / 1.03
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Linus Ullmark

Ottawa Senators · Last start: Oct 5

2 / 2 appearances covered

Shots faced
39
Save %
94.9
Goals allowed
2
Close-range shots %
46.2

John Gibson

Detroit Red Wings · Last start: Oct 4

2 / 2 appearances covered

Shots faced
47
Save %
91.5
Goals allowed
4
Close-range shots %
29.8
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 6, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Ottawa Senators

xG for / game
3.71
xG against / game
2.85
xG differential / game
0.86

2 / 2 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Detroit Red Wings

xG for / game
2.99
xG against / game
2.58
xG differential / game
0.41

2 / 2 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 6, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Ottawa Senators

2 / 2 games covered

Attempts / game
52.0
Corsi share (%)
48.4
Fenwick share (%)
50.0
Faceoff win %
52.8
Penalties / game
5.0

Shots / game: 26.5 · Shooting: 13.2% · Avg distance: 32.5 ft

Detroit Red Wings

2 / 2 games covered

Attempts / game
61.5
Corsi share (%)
56.2
Fenwick share (%)
55.0
Faceoff win %
56.7
Penalties / game
5.5

Shots / game: 29.0 · Shooting: 3.4% · Avg distance: 33.2 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Ottawa Senators OTT
Metric
Detroit Red Wings DET
16Points13
0.615Points %0.542
39Goals for33
38Goals against37
1Goal differential-4
L1Current streakW1
Road versus home
Ottawa Senators OTT road
Metric
Detroit Red Wings DET home
6Games7
3Wins3
6Points7
0Goal differential-3
Last 10 games
Ottawa Senators OTT
Metric
Detroit Red Wings DET
6-4-0Record5-2-3
12Points13
29Goals for31
30Goals against32
-1Goal differential-1
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Ottawa Senators OTT 6 wins
10 games reviewed
Detroit Red Wings DET 4 wins
Total goals28 – 24
Goal differential +4 / -4
Goals per game2.8 / 2.4
Shots per game29.0 / 30.0
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 24, 2026
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
3 - 2 21 - 34 View
Feb 26, 2026
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
2 - 1 20 - 27 View
Jan 18, 2026
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
3 - 4 22 - 34 View
Jan 5, 2026
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
5 - 3 20 - 38 View
Mar 27, 2025
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
4 - 3 32 - 34 View
Mar 10, 2025
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
1 - 2 49 - 23 View
Jan 7, 2025
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
2 - 3 33 - 33 View
Dec 5, 2024
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
1 - 2 20 - 32 View
Jan 31, 2024
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
3 - 2 25 - 25 View
Dec 9, 2023
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
5 - 1 37 - 31 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings OTT DET