Skip to content

Ottawa Senators vs Dallas Stars prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for January 12, 2027

NHL matchup

Ottawa Senators at Dallas Stars

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for January 12, 2027.

January 12, 2027 · 7:00 PM CST
Away

Ottawa Senators

8-4-0

39.6%
at
Home

Dallas Stars

7-3-1

60.4% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Dallas Stars at 60.4%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Ottawa Senators logo
Away team

Ottawa Senators

39.6%
Fair American +153
Fair decimal 2.53
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Jan 12, 2027.

Dallas Stars

All Model Picks

Bets
3
Record
2-1
Net units
0.09
ROI
3.1%

Value Picks

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Net units
0.00
ROI
—

Market Favourite

Bets
9
Record
6-3
Net units
0.55
ROI
6.1%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 12. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Ottawa Senators

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

39:23 together · 8 games

xG share47.8%
Corsi for / against
35 / 53
Fenwick for / against
25 / 39
Corsi share
39.8%
Fenwick share
39.1%
xG for / against
1.87 / 2.05
Defense pair

70:48 together · 9 games

xG share67.1%
Corsi for / against
84 / 65
Fenwick for / against
58 / 37
Corsi share
56.4%
Fenwick share
61.1%
xG for / against
4.13 / 2.03
All observed combinations

Dallas Stars

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

52:30 together · 7 games

xG share74.6%
Corsi for / against
52 / 43
Fenwick for / against
36 / 23
Corsi share
54.7%
Fenwick share
61.0%
xG for / against
2.76 / 0.94
Defense pair

96:24 together · 10 games

xG share58.8%
Corsi for / against
99 / 73
Fenwick for / against
66 / 48
Corsi share
57.6%
Fenwick share
57.9%
xG for / against
3.83 / 2.68
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Jonas Johansson

Ottawa Senators · Last start: Oct 24

1 / 1 appearances covered

Shots faced
29
Save %
86.2
Goals allowed
4
Close-range shots %
37.9

Jake Oettinger

Dallas Stars · Last start: Oct 25

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
102
Save %
90.2
Goals allowed
10
Close-range shots %
34.3
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 12, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Ottawa Senators

xG for / game
2.85
xG against / game
2.78
xG differential / game
0.07

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Dallas Stars

xG for / game
3.33
xG against / game
2.56
xG differential / game
0.77

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 12, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Ottawa Senators

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
54.6
Corsi share (%)
48.4
Fenwick share (%)
48.9
Faceoff win %
52.3
Penalties / game
4.9

Shots / game: 25.2 · Shooting: 11.5% · Avg distance: 32.3 ft

Dallas Stars

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
58.0
Corsi share (%)
53.6
Fenwick share (%)
54.7
Faceoff win %
55.7
Penalties / game
4.0

Shots / game: 28.0 · Shooting: 11.1% · Avg distance: 31.0 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Ottawa Senators OTT
Metric
Dallas Stars DAL
16Points15
0.667Points %0.682
38Goals for32
34Goals against20
4Goal differential12
W1Current streakW5
Road versus home
Ottawa Senators OTT road
Metric
Dallas Stars DAL home
5Games6
3Wins4
6Points8
3Goal differential5
Last 10 games
Ottawa Senators OTT
Metric
Dallas Stars DAL
6-4-0Record7-2-1
12Points15
31Goals for32
31Goals against16
0Goal differential16
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Ottawa Senators OTT 5 wins
10 games reviewed
Dallas Stars DAL 5 wins
Total goals30 – 30
Goal differential 0 / 0
Goals per game3.0 / 3.0
Shots per game25.8 / 28.5
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Nov 30, 2025
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
1 - 6 16 - 26 View
Nov 11, 2025
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
3 - 2 33 - 29 View
Jan 12, 2025
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
2 - 3 26 - 27 View
Jan 2, 2025
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
2 - 4 13 - 25 View
Feb 22, 2024
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
1 - 4 15 - 30 View
Dec 15, 2023
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
4 - 5 29 - 24 View
Dec 8, 2022
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
3 - 4 31 - 32 View
Oct 24, 2022
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
2 - 4 31 - 32 View
Oct 29, 2021
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
4 - 1 24 - 39 View
Oct 17, 2021
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
2 - 3 34 - 27 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings OTT DAL