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Ottawa Senators vs Boston Bruins prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 5, 2026

NHL matchup

Ottawa Senators at Boston Bruins

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 5, 2026.

October 5, 2026 · 6:30 PM CST
Away

Ottawa Senators

8-4-0

4
Final
Home

Boston Bruins

9-2-1

1 Model pick
Model V2 pick: Boston Bruins at 50.7% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Ottawa Senators logo
Away team

Ottawa Senators

49.3%
Fair American +103
Fair decimal 2.03
Best market -113 · BetRivers
Market implied 53.1%
Edge -3.8%
Expected value -7.1%
Calculate value
Boston Bruins logo
Home team

Boston Bruins

50.7%
Fair American -103
Fair decimal 1.97
Best market +104 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 49.0%
Edge +1.7%
Expected value +3.4%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 5, 2026.

Boston Bruins

All Model Picks

Bets
1
Record
1-0
Net units
0.93
ROI
92.6%

Value Picks

Bets
2
Record
1-1
Net units
-0.07
ROI
-3.7%

Market Favourite

Bets
1
Record
1-0
Net units
0.93
ROI
92.6%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 5. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Ottawa Senators

1 / 1 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trioUnder 10 minutes

7:38 together · 1 game

xG share43.2%
Corsi for / against
9 / 9
Fenwick for / against
6 / 8
Corsi share
50.0%
Fenwick share
42.9%
xG for / against
0.20 / 0.26
Defense pairUnder 10 minutes

8:38 together · 1 game

xG share73.2%
Corsi for / against
11 / 7
Fenwick for / against
10 / 6
Corsi share
61.1%
Fenwick share
62.5%
xG for / against
0.63 / 0.23
All observed combinations

Boston Bruins

3 / 3 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

32:49 together · 3 games

xG share54.2%
Corsi for / against
37 / 34
Fenwick for / against
29 / 22
Corsi share
52.1%
Fenwick share
56.9%
xG for / against
1.35 / 1.14
Defense pair

48:09 together · 3 games

xG share57.8%
Corsi for / against
45 / 36
Fenwick for / against
33 / 27
Corsi share
55.6%
Fenwick share
55.0%
xG for / against
1.98 / 1.45
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Linus Ullmark

Ottawa Senators · Last start: Oct 3

1 / 1 appearances covered

Shots faced
29
Save %
93.1
Goals allowed
2
Close-range shots %
55.2

Michael DiPietro

Boston Bruins · Last start: Oct 3

1 / 1 appearances covered

Shots faced
29
Save %
89.7
Goals allowed
3
Close-range shots %
37.9
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 5, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Ottawa Senators

xG for / game
4.71
xG against / game
3.24
xG differential / game
1.47

1 / 1 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Boston Bruins

xG for / game
2.88
xG against / game
2.87
xG differential / game
0.01

3 / 3 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 5, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Ottawa Senators

1 / 1 games covered

Attempts / game
54.0
Corsi share (%)
44.3
Fenwick share (%)
47.8
Faceoff win %
56.9
Penalties / game
5.0

Shots / game: 29.0 · Shooting: 10.3% · Avg distance: 29.9 ft

Boston Bruins

3 / 3 games covered

Attempts / game
59.7
Corsi share (%)
51.3
Fenwick share (%)
51.4
Faceoff win %
50.0
Penalties / game
3.0

Shots / game: 26.7 · Shooting: 10.0% · Avg distance: 32.3 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Ottawa Senators OTT
Metric
Boston Bruins BOS
16Points19
0.667Points %0.792
38Goals for48
34Goals against26
4Goal differential22
W1Current streakW2
Road versus home
Ottawa Senators OTT road
Metric
Boston Bruins BOS home
5Games6
3Wins5
6Points10
3Goal differential17
Last 10 games
Ottawa Senators OTT
Metric
Boston Bruins BOS
6-4-0Record7-2-1
12Points15
31Goals for41
31Goals against23
0Goal differential18
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Ottawa Senators OTT 7 wins
10 games reviewed
Boston Bruins BOS 3 wins
Total goals40 – 29
Goal differential +11 / -11
Goals per game4.0 / 2.9
Shots per game28.5 / 25.0
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Dec 21, 2025
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Boston Bruins Boston Bruins
6 - 2 28 - 20 View
Nov 13, 2025
Boston Bruins Boston Bruins at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
3 - 5 21 - 22 View
Nov 6, 2025
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Boston Bruins Boston Bruins
2 - 3 22 - 25 View
Oct 27, 2025
Boston Bruins Boston Bruins at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
2 - 7 28 - 23 View
Mar 13, 2025
Boston Bruins Boston Bruins at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
3 - 6 25 - 32 View
Jan 23, 2025
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Boston Bruins Boston Bruins
0 - 2 29 - 26 View
Jan 18, 2025
Boston Bruins Boston Bruins at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
5 - 6 28 - 44 View
Nov 9, 2024
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Boston Bruins Boston Bruins
3 - 2 34 - 16 View
Apr 16, 2024
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Boston Bruins Boston Bruins
3 - 1 20 - 35 View
Mar 19, 2024
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Boston Bruins Boston Bruins
2 - 6 31 - 26 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings OTT BOS