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New York Rangers vs Washington Capitals prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 9, 2026

NHL matchup

New York Rangers at Washington Capitals

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 9, 2026.

October 9, 2026 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

New York Rangers

7-6-1

1
Final
Home

Washington Capitals

6-4-0

3 Model pick
Model V2 pick: Washington Capitals at 61.6% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

New York Rangers logo
Away team

New York Rangers

38.4%
Fair American +160
Fair decimal 2.6
Best market +125 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 44.4%
Edge -6.0%
Expected value -13.6%
Calculate value
Washington Capitals logo
Home team

Washington Capitals

61.6%
Fair American -160
Fair decimal 1.62
Best market -141 · BetRivers
Market implied 58.5%
Edge +3.1%
Expected value +5.3%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 9, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 9. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

New York Rangers

5 / 5 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

65:44 together · 5 games

xG share41.3%
Corsi for / against
52 / 63
Fenwick for / against
33 / 43
Corsi share
45.2%
Fenwick share
43.4%
xG for / against
2.56 / 3.64
All observed combinations

Washington Capitals

3 / 3 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

22:47 together · 3 games

xG share60.7%
Corsi for / against
26 / 25
Fenwick for / against
20 / 19
Corsi share
51.0%
Fenwick share
51.3%
xG for / against
1.75 / 1.13
Defense pair

21:35 together · 2 games

xG share42.1%
Corsi for / against
17 / 22
Fenwick for / against
11 / 17
Corsi share
43.6%
Fenwick share
39.3%
xG for / against
0.93 / 1.28
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Igor Shesterkin

New York Rangers · Last start: Oct 6

4 / 4 appearances covered

Shots faced
95
Save %
92.6
Goals allowed
7
Close-range shots %
33.7

Logan Thompson

Washington Capitals · Last start: Oct 7

2 / 2 appearances covered

Shots faced
63
Save %
92.1
Goals allowed
5
Close-range shots %
31.7
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 9, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

New York Rangers

xG for / game
3.09
xG against / game
2.61
xG differential / game
0.48

5 / 5 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Washington Capitals

xG for / game
3.41
xG against / game
3.88
xG differential / game
-0.48

3 / 3 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 9, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

New York Rangers

5 / 5 games covered

Attempts / game
50.6
Corsi share (%)
47.6
Fenwick share (%)
48.7
Faceoff win %
52.2
Penalties / game
5.0

Shots / game: 23.2 · Shooting: 13.8% · Avg distance: 32.5 ft

Washington Capitals

3 / 3 games covered

Attempts / game
56.3
Corsi share (%)
45.3
Fenwick share (%)
45.6
Faceoff win %
50.3
Penalties / game
6.33

Shots / game: 25.0 · Shooting: 14.7% · Avg distance: 32.2 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
New York Rangers NYR
Metric
Washington Capitals WSH
15Points12
0.536Points %0.600
44Goals for34
42Goals against32
2Goal differential2
L3Current streakW1
Road versus home
New York Rangers NYR road
Metric
Washington Capitals WSH home
7Games7
1Wins5
3Points10
-14Goal differential3
Last 10 games
New York Rangers NYR
Metric
Washington Capitals WSH
4-5-1Record6-4-0
9Points12
33Goals for34
36Goals against32
-3Goal differential2
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

New York Rangers NYR 4 wins
10 games reviewed
Washington Capitals WSH 6 wins
Total goals36 – 31
Goal differential +5 / -5
Goals per game3.6 / 3.1
Shots per game27.1 / 27.4
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Apr 5, 2026
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at New York Rangers New York Rangers
1 - 8 21 - 32 View
Dec 31, 2025
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
3 - 6 25 - 27 View
Dec 23, 2025
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
7 - 3 21 - 32 View
Oct 12, 2025
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at New York Rangers New York Rangers
1 - 0 21 - 35 View
Mar 5, 2025
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at New York Rangers New York Rangers
3 - 2 26 - 17 View
Jan 4, 2025
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
4 - 7 33 - 28 View
Oct 29, 2024
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
3 - 5 19 - 46 View
Jan 14, 2024
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at New York Rangers New York Rangers
1 - 2 25 - 31 View
Jan 13, 2024
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
2 - 3 27 - 21 View
Dec 27, 2023
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at New York Rangers New York Rangers
1 - 5 27 - 31 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
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