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New York Rangers vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 22, 2026

NHL matchup

New York Rangers at Toronto Maple Leafs

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 22, 2026.

October 22, 2026 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

New York Rangers

7-5-1

4
Final
Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

7-4-2

5 Model pick
Model V2 pick: Toronto Maple Leafs at 65.0% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

New York Rangers logo
Away team

New York Rangers

35.0%
Fair American +186
Fair decimal 2.86
Best market -109 · MyBookie.ag
Market implied 52.2%
Edge -17.2%
Expected value -32.9%
Calculate value
Toronto Maple Leafs logo
Home team

Toronto Maple Leafs

65.0%
Fair American -186
Fair decimal 1.54
Best market -104 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 51.0%
Edge +14.0%
Expected value +27.5%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 22, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 22. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

New York Rangers

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

82:50 together · 10 games

xG share47.4%
Corsi for / against
70 / 86
Fenwick for / against
47 / 63
Corsi share
44.9%
Fenwick share
42.7%
xG for / against
3.56 / 3.95
Defense pair

135:02 together · 10 games

xG share46.7%
Corsi for / against
104 / 119
Fenwick for / against
62 / 90
Corsi share
46.6%
Fenwick share
40.8%
xG for / against
5.46 / 6.23
All observed combinations

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

74:25 together · 10 games

xG share42.1%
Corsi for / against
53 / 78
Fenwick for / against
41 / 58
Corsi share
40.5%
Fenwick share
41.4%
xG for / against
2.50 / 3.44
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

New York Rangers

Dylan Garand 80.7%
Other eligible goalies

Why Dylan Garand?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.689
Team win pct before
-0.332
Started last game
-0.289
Days since last start
+0.261
Goalie team start share
+0.223
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 22, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Toronto Maple Leafs

Sergei Bobrovsky 72.7%
Other eligible goalies

Why Sergei Bobrovsky?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+0.652
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.535
Prev save pct
+0.469
Days since last start
+0.350
Won previous appearance
+0.300
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 22, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Dylan Garand

New York Rangers · Last start: Oct 19

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
120
Save %
91.7
Goals allowed
10
Close-range shots %
29.2

Anthony Stolarz

Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Oct 20

4 / 4 appearances covered

Shots faced
118
Save %
89.8
Goals allowed
12
Close-range shots %
35.6
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 22, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

New York Rangers

xG for / game
3.31
xG against / game
2.74
xG differential / game
0.58

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Toronto Maple Leafs

xG for / game
3.16
xG against / game
3.63
xG differential / game
-0.47

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 22, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

New York Rangers

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
51.7
Corsi share (%)
47.4
Fenwick share (%)
47.9
Faceoff win %
54.2
Penalties / game
4.5

Shots / game: 24.2 · Shooting: 13.6% · Avg distance: 30.2 ft

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
53.6
Corsi share (%)
45.9
Fenwick share (%)
47.5
Faceoff win %
53.3
Penalties / game
4.4

Shots / game: 27.8 · Shooting: 12.9% · Avg distance: 31.4 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
New York Rangers NYR
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
15Points16
0.577Points %0.615
41Goals for50
36Goals against41
5Goal differential9
L2Current streakW4
Road versus home
New York Rangers NYR road
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR home
7Games8
1Wins4
3Points9
-14Goal differential-1
Last 10 games
New York Rangers NYR
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
5-4-1Record6-2-2
11Points14
34Goals for44
32Goals against34
2Goal differential10
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

New York Rangers NYR 3 wins
10 games reviewed
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR 7 wins
Total goals32 – 32
Goal differential 0 / 0
Goals per game3.2 / 3.2
Shots per game31.6 / 27.0
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 25, 2026
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 4 43 - 18 View
Mar 5, 2026
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Rangers New York Rangers
2 - 6 31 - 24 View
Oct 16, 2025
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
1 - 2 29 - 24 View
Mar 20, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Rangers New York Rangers
4 - 3 28 - 30 View
Feb 28, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Rangers New York Rangers
3 - 2 16 - 35 View
Oct 19, 2024
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
4 - 1 29 - 35 View
Mar 2, 2024
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 4 35 - 34 View
Dec 19, 2023
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
5 - 2 36 - 33 View
Dec 12, 2023
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Rangers New York Rangers
7 - 3 30 - 31 View
Apr 13, 2023
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Rangers New York Rangers
3 - 2 21 - 24 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings NYR TOR