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New York Rangers vs Dallas Stars prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for December 31, 2026

NHL matchup

New York Rangers at Dallas Stars

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for December 31, 2026.

December 31, 2026 · 8:00 PM CST
Away

New York Rangers

7-5-1

40.5%
at
Home

Dallas Stars

7-3-1

59.5% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Dallas Stars at 59.5%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

New York Rangers logo
Away team

New York Rangers

40.5%
Fair American +147
Fair decimal 2.47
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Dec 31, 2026.

Dallas Stars

All Model Picks

Bets
3
Record
2-1
Net units
0.09
ROI
3.1%

Value Picks

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Net units
0.00
ROI
—

Market Favourite

Bets
9
Record
6-3
Net units
0.55
ROI
6.1%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 31. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

New York Rangers

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

141:07 together · 10 games

xG share60.5%
Corsi for / against
134 / 153
Fenwick for / against
100 / 95
Corsi share
46.7%
Fenwick share
51.3%
xG for / against
7.85 / 5.14
All observed combinations

Dallas Stars

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

52:30 together · 7 games

xG share74.6%
Corsi for / against
52 / 43
Fenwick for / against
36 / 23
Corsi share
54.7%
Fenwick share
61.0%
xG for / against
2.76 / 0.94
Defense pair

96:24 together · 10 games

xG share58.8%
Corsi for / against
99 / 73
Fenwick for / against
66 / 48
Corsi share
57.6%
Fenwick share
57.9%
xG for / against
3.83 / 2.68
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Dylan Garand

New York Rangers · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
130
Save %
86.9
Goals allowed
17
Close-range shots %
30.8

Jake Oettinger

Dallas Stars · Last start: Oct 25

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
103
Save %
90.3
Goals allowed
10
Close-range shots %
34.0
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 31, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

New York Rangers

xG for / game
3.35
xG against / game
2.98
xG differential / game
0.37

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Dallas Stars

xG for / game
3.33
xG against / game
2.56
xG differential / game
0.77

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 31, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

New York Rangers

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
54.6
Corsi share (%)
48.5
Fenwick share (%)
47.8
Faceoff win %
53.7
Penalties / game
3.9

Shots / game: 24.9 · Shooting: 13.7% · Avg distance: 29.6 ft

Dallas Stars

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
58.0
Corsi share (%)
53.6
Fenwick share (%)
54.7
Faceoff win %
55.7
Penalties / game
4.0

Shots / game: 28.0 · Shooting: 11.1% · Avg distance: 31.0 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
New York Rangers NYR
Metric
Dallas Stars DAL
15Points15
0.577Points %0.682
41Goals for32
36Goals against20
5Goal differential12
L2Current streakW5
Road versus home
New York Rangers NYR road
Metric
Dallas Stars DAL home
7Games6
1Wins4
3Points8
-14Goal differential5
Last 10 games
New York Rangers NYR
Metric
Dallas Stars DAL
5-4-1Record7-2-1
11Points15
34Goals for32
32Goals against16
2Goal differential16
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

New York Rangers NYR 6 wins
10 games reviewed
Dallas Stars DAL 4 wins
Total goals33 – 28
Goal differential +5 / -5
Goals per game3.3 / 2.8
Shots per game29.8 / 32.1
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Apr 11, 2026
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
0 - 2 22 - 19 View
Dec 2, 2025
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at New York Rangers New York Rangers
2 - 3 26 - 41 View
Jan 7, 2025
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at New York Rangers New York Rangers
5 - 4 39 - 26 View
Dec 20, 2024
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
3 - 1 30 - 42 View
Feb 20, 2024
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at New York Rangers New York Rangers
1 - 3 42 - 26 View
Nov 20, 2023
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
3 - 6 33 - 36 View
Jan 12, 2023
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at New York Rangers New York Rangers
1 - 2 25 - 31 View
Oct 29, 2022
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
6 - 3 27 - 33 View
Mar 12, 2022
New York Rangers New York Rangers at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
7 - 4 29 - 33 View
Oct 14, 2021
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at New York Rangers New York Rangers
3 - 2 26 - 33 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
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