Away team
New York Islanders
38.7%
Fair American
+158
Fair decimal
2.58
New York Islanders vs Washington Capitals prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for January 22, 2027
NHL matchup
New York Islanders at Washington Capitals
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for January 22, 2027.
January 22, 2027
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Washington Capitals at 61.3%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Washington Capitals
61.3%
Fair American
-158
Fair decimal
1.63
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Jan 22, 2027.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 5
- Record
- 3-2
- Net units
- -0.28
- ROI
- -5.6%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 2-5
- Net units
- -3.13
- ROI
- -44.8%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 3-0
- Net units
- 1.72
- ROI
- 57.4%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 4-2
- Net units
- 1.42
- ROI
- 23.6%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 2-1
- Net units
- 0.96
- ROI
- 32.0%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 5-2
- Net units
- 1.86
- ROI
- 26.5%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 22. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
New York Islanders
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
60:15 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 66 / 48
- Fenwick for / against
- 45 / 37
- Corsi share
- 57.9%
- Fenwick share
- 54.9%
- xG for / against
- 3.06 / 2.71
Defense pair
130:50 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 135 / 93
- Fenwick for / against
- 93 / 69
- Corsi share
- 59.2%
- Fenwick share
- 57.4%
- xG for / against
- 6.37 / 5.00
Washington Capitals
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
41:39 together · 6 games
- Corsi for / against
- 41 / 38
- Fenwick for / against
- 32 / 27
- Corsi share
- 51.9%
- Fenwick share
- 54.2%
- xG for / against
- 2.56 / 1.53
Defense pair
87:35 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 78 / 105
- Fenwick for / against
- 61 / 80
- Corsi share
- 42.6%
- Fenwick share
- 43.3%
- xG for / against
- 4.29 / 4.54
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
New York Islanders
Expected starter unavailable.
Washington Capitals
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Semyon Varlamov
New York Islanders · Last start: Oct 27
4 / 4 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 92
- Save %
- 89.1
- Goals allowed
- 10
- Close-range shots %
- 40.2
Charlie Lindgren
Washington Capitals · Last start: Oct 24
3 / 3 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 79
- Save %
- 88.6
- Goals allowed
- 9
- Close-range shots %
- 25.3
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 22, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
New York Islanders
- xG for / game
- 2.99
- xG against / game
- 3.38
- xG differential / game
- -0.39
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Washington Capitals
- xG for / game
- 3.53
- xG against / game
- 3.37
- xG differential / game
- 0.16
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 22, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
New York Islanders
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 55.7
- Corsi share (%)
- 50.5
- Fenwick share (%)
- 50.3
- Faceoff win %
- 56.2
- Penalties / game
- 4.5
Shots / game: 25.5 · Shooting: 11.0% · Avg distance: 33.4 ft
Washington Capitals
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 54.8
- Corsi share (%)
- 46.4
- Fenwick share (%)
- 47.8
- Faceoff win %
- 50.2
- Penalties / game
- 4.4
Shots / game: 27.5 · Shooting: 12.4% · Avg distance: 31.5 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
NYI
|
Metric |
WSH
|
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Points | 12 |
| 0.583 | Points % | 0.600 |
| 36 | Goals for | 34 |
| 32 | Goals against | 32 |
| 4 | Goal differential | 2 |
| W1 | Current streak | W1 |
Road versus home
|
NYI road
|
Metric |
WSH home
|
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Games | 7 |
| 2 | Wins | 5 |
| 5 | Points | 10 |
| -4 | Goal differential | 3 |
Last 10 games
|
NYI
|
Metric |
WSH
|
|---|---|---|
| 5-3-2 | Record | 6-4-0 |
| 12 | Points | 12 |
| 29 | Goals for | 34 |
| 30 | Goals against | 32 |
| -1 | Goal differential | 2 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
NYI
3 wins
10
games reviewed
WSH
7 wins
Total goals24 – 30
Goal differential
-6
/
+6
Goals per game2.4 / 3.0
Shots per game30.0 / 27.7
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 |
New York Islanders
at
Washington Capitals
|
1 - 4 | 30 - 24 | View |
| Nov 30, 2025 |
Washington Capitals
at
New York Islanders
|
4 - 1 | 19 - 31 | View |
| Oct 31, 2025 |
New York Islanders
at
Washington Capitals
|
3 - 1 | 23 - 23 | View |
| Oct 11, 2025 |
Washington Capitals
at
New York Islanders
|
4 - 2 | 29 - 36 | View |
| Apr 15, 2025 |
Washington Capitals
at
New York Islanders
|
3 - 1 | 36 - 33 | View |
| Apr 6, 2025 |
Washington Capitals
at
New York Islanders
|
1 - 4 | 29 - 22 | View |
| Nov 29, 2024 |
New York Islanders
at
Washington Capitals
|
4 - 5 | 24 - 26 | View |
| Dec 29, 2023 |
Washington Capitals
at
New York Islanders
|
1 - 5 | 27 - 32 | View |
| Dec 20, 2023 |
New York Islanders
at
Washington Capitals
|
2 - 3 | 32 - 36 | View |
| Nov 11, 2023 |
Washington Capitals
at
New York Islanders
|
4 - 1 | 28 - 37 | View |