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- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Net units
- 0.00
- ROI
- —
Value Picks
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Net units
- 0.00
- ROI
- —
Market Favourite
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New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for September 30, 2026
NHL matchup
New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for September 30, 2026.
September 30, 2026
· 6:30 PM CST
Model V2 prediction is not available yet for this game.
View final boxscore
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Sep 30, 2026.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Net units
- 0.00
- ROI
- —
Value Picks
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Net units
- 0.00
- ROI
- —
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Net units
- 0.00
- ROI
- —
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Sep 30. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Toronto Maple Leafs
1 / 1 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
12:47 together · 1 game
- Corsi for / against
- 14 / 7
- Fenwick for / against
- 13 / 6
- Corsi share
- 66.7%
- Fenwick share
- 68.4%
- xG for / against
- 1.06 / 0.15
Defense pair
11:36 together · 1 game
- Corsi for / against
- 7 / 8
- Fenwick for / against
- 4 / 6
- Corsi share
- 46.7%
- Fenwick share
- 40.0%
- xG for / against
- 0.38 / 0.34
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Sergei Bobrovsky
Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Sep 29
1 / 1 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 24
- Save %
- 87.5
- Goals allowed
- 3
- Close-range shots %
- 33.3
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Sep 30, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
New York Islanders
xG unavailable.
0 / 0 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Toronto Maple Leafs
- xG for / game
- 2.69
- xG against / game
- 2.41
- xG differential / game
- 0.29
1 / 1 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Sep 30, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
New York Islanders
0 / 0 games covered
No current event coverage for these games.
Toronto Maple Leafs
1 / 1 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 50.0
- Corsi share (%)
- 47.6
- Fenwick share (%)
- 49.4
- Faceoff win %
- 39.6
- Penalties / game
- 4.0
Shots / game: 28.0 · Shooting: 7.1% · Avg distance: 29.9 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
NYI
|
Metric |
TOR
|
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Points | 16 |
| 0.545 | Points % | 0.615 |
| 32 | Goals for | 50 |
| 29 | Goals against | 41 |
| 3 | Goal differential | 9 |
| L1 | Current streak | W4 |
Road versus home
|
NYI road
|
Metric |
TOR home
|
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Games | 8 |
| 1 | Wins | 4 |
| 3 | Points | 9 |
| -5 | Goal differential | -1 |
Last 10 games
|
NYI
|
Metric |
TOR
|
|---|---|---|
| 5-3-2 | Record | 6-2-2 |
| 12 | Points | 14 |
| 31 | Goals for | 44 |
| 27 | Goals against | 34 |
| 4 | Goal differential | 10 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
NYI
8 wins
10
games reviewed
TOR
2 wins
Total goals38 – 25
Goal differential
+13
/
-13
Goals per game3.8 / 2.5
Shots per game31.8 / 28.7
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2026 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
New York Islanders
|
3 - 5 | 16 - 44 | View |
| Mar 17, 2026 |
New York Islanders
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
3 - 1 | 34 - 27 | View |
| Jan 3, 2026 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
New York Islanders
|
3 - 4 | 21 - 25 | View |
| Jan 2, 2025 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
New York Islanders
|
2 - 1 | 31 - 33 | View |
| Dec 31, 2024 |
New York Islanders
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
1 - 3 | 31 - 25 | View |
| Dec 21, 2024 |
New York Islanders
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
6 - 3 | 34 - 29 | View |
| Feb 5, 2024 |
New York Islanders
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
3 - 2 | 29 - 36 | View |
| Jan 11, 2024 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
New York Islanders
|
3 - 4 | 35 - 30 | View |
| Dec 11, 2023 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
New York Islanders
|
3 - 4 | 40 - 29 | View |
| Mar 21, 2023 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
New York Islanders
|
2 - 7 | 27 - 29 | View |