Away team
New York Islanders
64.9%
Fair American
-185
Fair decimal
1.54
New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for September 30, 2026
NHL matchup
New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs
View the PlayerWON model prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for September 30, 2026.
September 30, 2026
· 6:30 PM CST
Model favourite
New York Islanders
at 64.9%
Prediction
Model versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Toronto Maple Leafs
35.1%
Fair American
+185
Fair decimal
2.85
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
NYI
|
Metric |
TOR
|
|---|---|---|
| 91 | Points | 78 |
| 0.555 | Points % | 0.476 |
| 233 | Goals for | 253 |
| 241 | Goals against | 299 |
| -8 | Goal differential | -46 |
| L3 | Current streak | L5 |
Road versus home
|
NYI road
|
Metric |
TOR home
|
|---|---|---|
| 41 | Games | 41 |
| 21 | Wins | 18 |
| 45 | Points | 44 |
| -6 | Goal differential | -10 |
Last 10 games
|
NYI
|
Metric |
TOR
|
|---|---|---|
| 3-7-0 | Record | 2-7-1 |
| 6 | Points | 5 |
| 24 | Goals for | 28 |
| 35 | Goals against | 47 |
| -11 | Goal differential | -19 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
NYI
8 wins
10
games reviewed
TOR
2 wins
Total goals38 – 25
Goal differential
+13
/
-13
Goals per game3.8 / 2.5
Shots per game31.8 / 28.7
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2026 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
New York Islanders
|
3 - 5 | 16 - 44 | View |
| Mar 17, 2026 |
New York Islanders
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
3 - 1 | 34 - 27 | View |
| Jan 3, 2026 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
New York Islanders
|
3 - 4 | 21 - 25 | View |
| Jan 2, 2025 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
New York Islanders
|
2 - 1 | 31 - 33 | View |
| Dec 31, 2024 |
New York Islanders
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
1 - 3 | 31 - 25 | View |
| Dec 21, 2024 |
New York Islanders
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
6 - 3 | 34 - 29 | View |
| Feb 5, 2024 |
New York Islanders
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
3 - 2 | 29 - 36 | View |
| Jan 11, 2024 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
New York Islanders
|
3 - 4 | 35 - 30 | View |
| Dec 11, 2023 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
New York Islanders
|
3 - 4 | 40 - 29 | View |
| Mar 21, 2023 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
New York Islanders
|
2 - 7 | 27 - 29 | View |