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New York Islanders vs Pittsburgh Penguins prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for January 26, 2027

NHL matchup

New York Islanders at Pittsburgh Penguins

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for January 26, 2027.

January 26, 2027 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

New York Islanders

6-4-2

34.8%
at
Home

Pittsburgh Penguins

5-6-1

65.2% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Pittsburgh Penguins at 65.2%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

New York Islanders logo
Away team

New York Islanders

34.8%
Fair American +187
Fair decimal 2.87
Calculate value
Pittsburgh Penguins logo
Home team

Pittsburgh Penguins

65.2%
Fair American -187
Fair decimal 1.53
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Jan 26, 2027.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 26. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

New York Islanders

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

130:50 together · 10 games

xG share56.0%
Corsi for / against
135 / 93
Fenwick for / against
93 / 69
Corsi share
59.2%
Fenwick share
57.4%
xG for / against
6.37 / 5.00
All observed combinations

Pittsburgh Penguins

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

62:36 together · 7 games

xG share45.1%
Corsi for / against
62 / 60
Fenwick for / against
44 / 50
Corsi share
50.8%
Fenwick share
46.8%
xG for / against
3.72 / 4.52
Defense pair

83:42 together · 10 games

xG share41.7%
Corsi for / against
96 / 88
Fenwick for / against
70 / 70
Corsi share
52.2%
Fenwick share
50.0%
xG for / against
3.95 / 5.54
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Semyon Varlamov

New York Islanders · Last start: Oct 27

4 / 4 appearances covered

Shots faced
92
Save %
89.1
Goals allowed
10
Close-range shots %
40.2

Arturs Silovs

Pittsburgh Penguins · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
138
Save %
90.6
Goals allowed
13
Close-range shots %
32.6
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 26, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

New York Islanders

xG for / game
2.99
xG against / game
3.38
xG differential / game
-0.39

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Pittsburgh Penguins

xG for / game
3.15
xG against / game
3.33
xG differential / game
-0.18

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 26, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

New York Islanders

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
55.7
Corsi share (%)
50.5
Fenwick share (%)
50.3
Faceoff win %
56.2
Penalties / game
4.5

Shots / game: 25.5 · Shooting: 11.0% · Avg distance: 33.4 ft

Pittsburgh Penguins

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
57.9
Corsi share (%)
50.9
Fenwick share (%)
50.1
Faceoff win %
46.6
Penalties / game
2.9

Shots / game: 26.5 · Shooting: 9.8% · Avg distance: 31.3 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
New York Islanders NYI
Metric
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT
14Points11
0.583Points %0.458
36Goals for40
32Goals against40
4Goal differential0
W1Current streakW2
Road versus home
New York Islanders NYI road
Metric
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT home
6Games5
2Wins4
5Points8
-4Goal differential6
Last 10 games
New York Islanders NYI
Metric
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT
5-3-2Record3-6-1
12Points7
29Goals for27
30Goals against35
-1Goal differential-8
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

New York Islanders NYI 6 wins
10 games reviewed
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT 4 wins
Total goals38 – 38
Goal differential 0 / 0
Goals per game3.8 / 3.8
Shots per game31.5 / 33.9
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 30, 2026
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Islanders New York Islanders
8 - 3 31 - 23 View
Feb 3, 2026
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Islanders New York Islanders
4 - 5 35 - 23 View
Oct 9, 2025
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
3 - 4 37 - 28 View
Mar 18, 2025
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
4 - 2 38 - 21 View
Dec 29, 2024
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
2 - 3 31 - 41 View
Dec 28, 2024
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Islanders New York Islanders
3 - 6 25 - 34 View
Nov 5, 2024
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Islanders New York Islanders
3 - 4 35 - 26 View
Apr 17, 2024
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Islanders New York Islanders
4 - 5 44 - 32 View
Feb 20, 2024
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
5 - 4 33 - 41 View
Dec 31, 2023
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
1 - 3 38 - 38 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings NYI PIT