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New York Islanders vs Philadelphia Flyers prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for December 3, 2026

NHL matchup

New York Islanders at Philadelphia Flyers

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for December 3, 2026.

December 3, 2026 · 6:30 PM CST
Away

New York Islanders

6-4-2

44.1%
at
Home

Philadelphia Flyers

3-7-4

55.9% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Philadelphia Flyers at 55.9%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

New York Islanders logo
Away team

New York Islanders

44.1%
Fair American +127
Fair decimal 2.27
Calculate value
Philadelphia Flyers logo
Home team

Philadelphia Flyers

55.9%
Fair American -127
Fair decimal 1.79
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Dec 3, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 3. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

New York Islanders

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

130:50 together · 10 games

xG share56.0%
Corsi for / against
135 / 93
Fenwick for / against
93 / 69
Corsi share
59.2%
Fenwick share
57.4%
xG for / against
6.37 / 5.00
All observed combinations

Philadelphia Flyers

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

59:45 together · 8 games

xG share65.6%
Corsi for / against
48 / 43
Fenwick for / against
28 / 29
Corsi share
52.7%
Fenwick share
49.1%
xG for / against
2.99 / 1.57
Defense pair

111:09 together · 8 games

xG share53.0%
Corsi for / against
103 / 97
Fenwick for / against
73 / 63
Corsi share
51.5%
Fenwick share
53.7%
xG for / against
4.75 / 4.21
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Semyon Varlamov

New York Islanders · Last start: Oct 27

4 / 4 appearances covered

Shots faced
92
Save %
89.1
Goals allowed
10
Close-range shots %
40.2

Dan Vladar

Philadelphia Flyers · Last start: Oct 27

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
132
Save %
90.2
Goals allowed
13
Close-range shots %
31.1
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 3, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

New York Islanders

xG for / game
2.99
xG against / game
3.38
xG differential / game
-0.39

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Philadelphia Flyers

xG for / game
2.87
xG against / game
3.21
xG differential / game
-0.34

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 3, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

New York Islanders

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
55.7
Corsi share (%)
50.5
Fenwick share (%)
50.3
Faceoff win %
56.2
Penalties / game
4.5

Shots / game: 25.5 · Shooting: 11.0% · Avg distance: 33.4 ft

Philadelphia Flyers

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
53.1
Corsi share (%)
48.5
Fenwick share (%)
47.4
Faceoff win %
48.9
Penalties / game
4.0

Shots / game: 24.9 · Shooting: 8.8% · Avg distance: 30.7 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
New York Islanders NYI
Metric
Philadelphia Flyers PHI
14Points10
0.583Points %0.357
36Goals for27
32Goals against46
4Goal differential-19
W1Current streakOT1
Road versus home
New York Islanders NYI road
Metric
Philadelphia Flyers PHI home
6Games8
2Wins2
5Points7
-4Goal differential-11
Last 10 games
New York Islanders NYI
Metric
Philadelphia Flyers PHI
5-3-2Record3-5-2
12Points8
29Goals for22
30Goals against29
-1Goal differential-7
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

New York Islanders NYI 4 wins
10 games reviewed
Philadelphia Flyers PHI 6 wins
Total goals27 – 26
Goal differential +1 / -1
Goals per game2.7 / 2.6
Shots per game27.8 / 26.2
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Apr 3, 2026
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at New York Islanders New York Islanders
4 - 1 21 - 22 View
Jan 26, 2026
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
4 - 0 23 - 21 View
Nov 28, 2025
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at New York Islanders New York Islanders
4 - 3 21 - 31 View
Oct 25, 2025
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
3 - 4 26 - 26 View
Apr 12, 2025
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
3 - 4 40 - 22 View
Jan 30, 2025
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
3 - 0 28 - 23 View
Jan 24, 2025
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at New York Islanders New York Islanders
1 - 3 30 - 27 View
Jan 16, 2025
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at New York Islanders New York Islanders
5 - 3 24 - 29 View
Apr 1, 2024
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
4 - 3 27 - 34 View
Nov 25, 2023
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at New York Islanders New York Islanders
1 - 0 40 - 25 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings NYI PHI