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New York Islanders vs Ottawa Senators prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 15, 2026

NHL matchup

New York Islanders at Ottawa Senators

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 15, 2026.

October 15, 2026 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

New York Islanders

6-4-2

1
Final
Home

Ottawa Senators

8-5-0

2 Model pick
Model V2 pick: Ottawa Senators at 57.2% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

New York Islanders logo
Away team

New York Islanders

42.8%
Fair American +134
Fair decimal 2.34
Best market +136 · FanDuel
Market implied 42.4%
Edge +0.4%
Expected value +1.0%
Calculate value
Ottawa Senators logo
Home team

Ottawa Senators

57.2%
Fair American -134
Fair decimal 1.75
Best market -150 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 60.0%
Edge -2.8%
Expected value -4.7%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 15, 2026.

Ottawa Senators

All Model Picks

Bets
2
Record
1-1
Net units
-0.40
ROI
-19.9%

Value Picks

Bets
1
Record
0-1
Net units
-1.00
ROI
-100.0%

Market Favourite

Bets
4
Record
3-1
Net units
1.13
ROI
28.3%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 15. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

New York Islanders

6 / 6 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

48:36 together · 6 games

xG share48.5%
Corsi for / against
47 / 49
Fenwick for / against
35 / 39
Corsi share
49.0%
Fenwick share
47.3%
xG for / against
2.87 / 3.05
Defense pair

47:54 together · 6 games

xG share41.3%
Corsi for / against
42 / 31
Fenwick for / against
24 / 22
Corsi share
57.5%
Fenwick share
52.2%
xG for / against
1.25 / 1.77
All observed combinations

Ottawa Senators

7 / 7 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

54:13 together · 7 games

xG share46.8%
Corsi for / against
48 / 64
Fenwick for / against
34 / 49
Corsi share
42.9%
Fenwick share
41.0%
xG for / against
2.06 / 2.35
Defense pair

87:27 together · 7 games

xG share53.4%
Corsi for / against
91 / 96
Fenwick for / against
68 / 62
Corsi share
48.7%
Fenwick share
52.3%
xG for / against
4.70 / 4.10
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

New York Islanders

Ilya Sorokin 70.8%
Other eligible goalies

Why Ilya Sorokin?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+0.608
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.407
Consecutive starts
-0.289
Started last game
-0.272
Won previous appearance
+0.212
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 15, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Ottawa Senators

Linus Ullmark 94.8%
Other eligible goalies

Why Linus Ullmark?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+1.014
Days since last start
+0.440
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.435
Started last game
+0.413
Rolling 5 game avg save pct
+0.373
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 15, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Ilya Sorokin

New York Islanders · Last start: Oct 13

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
137
Save %
93.4
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
26.3

Samuel Ersson

Ottawa Senators · Last start: Oct 13

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
70
Save %
82.9
Goals allowed
12
Close-range shots %
27.1
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 15, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

New York Islanders

xG for / game
2.88
xG against / game
3.05
xG differential / game
-0.17

6 / 6 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Ottawa Senators

xG for / game
2.77
xG against / game
3.05
xG differential / game
-0.28

7 / 7 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 15, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

New York Islanders

6 / 6 games covered

Attempts / game
51.3
Corsi share (%)
47.9
Fenwick share (%)
47.9
Faceoff win %
52.7
Penalties / game
5.17

Shots / game: 26.3 · Shooting: 12.0% · Avg distance: 32.8 ft

Ottawa Senators

7 / 7 games covered

Attempts / game
50.6
Corsi share (%)
45.8
Fenwick share (%)
46.4
Faceoff win %
51.7
Penalties / game
5.0

Shots / game: 23.1 · Shooting: 12.3% · Avg distance: 31.9 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
New York Islanders NYI
Metric
Ottawa Senators OTT
14Points16
0.583Points %0.615
36Goals for39
32Goals against38
4Goal differential1
W1Current streakL1
Road versus home
New York Islanders NYI road
Metric
Ottawa Senators OTT home
6Games7
2Wins5
5Points10
-4Goal differential1
Last 10 games
New York Islanders NYI
Metric
Ottawa Senators OTT
5-3-2Record6-4-0
12Points12
29Goals for29
30Goals against30
-1Goal differential-1
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

New York Islanders NYI 5 wins
10 games reviewed
Ottawa Senators OTT 5 wins
Total goals28 – 28
Goal differential 0 / 0
Goals per game2.8 / 2.8
Shots per game27.2 / 30.4
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Apr 11, 2026
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at New York Islanders New York Islanders
3 - 0 16 - 23 View
Mar 19, 2026
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
2 - 3 19 - 26 View
Oct 18, 2025
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
5 - 4 23 - 32 View
Jan 14, 2025
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at New York Islanders New York Islanders
2 - 0 27 - 24 View
Dec 8, 2024
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
4 - 2 13 - 31 View
Nov 7, 2024
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
4 - 2 25 - 30 View
Mar 16, 2024
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at New York Islanders New York Islanders
4 - 3 30 - 33 View
Nov 24, 2023
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
5 - 3 26 - 31 View
Oct 26, 2023
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at New York Islanders New York Islanders
2 - 3 47 - 38 View
Feb 14, 2023
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at New York Islanders New York Islanders
3 - 2 34 - 48 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings NYI OTT