Away team
New York Islanders
38.8%
Fair American
+158
Fair decimal
2.58
New York Islanders vs Montréal Canadiens prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for February 20, 2027
NHL matchup
New York Islanders at Montréal Canadiens
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for February 20, 2027.
February 20, 2027
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Montréal Canadiens at 61.2%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Montréal Canadiens
61.2%
Fair American
-158
Fair decimal
1.63
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Feb 20, 2027.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 5
- Record
- 3-2
- Net units
- -0.28
- ROI
- -5.6%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 2-5
- Net units
- -3.13
- ROI
- -44.8%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 3-0
- Net units
- 1.72
- ROI
- 57.4%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 6-1
- Net units
- 3.39
- ROI
- 48.4%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 2-1
- Net units
- 0.83
- ROI
- 27.6%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 9
- Record
- 6-3
- Net units
- 1.39
- ROI
- 15.4%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 20. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
New York Islanders
This selection is unavailable until complete validated shift records cover every selected game.
All observed combinationsMontréal Canadiens
This selection is unavailable until complete validated shift records cover every selected game.
All observed combinationsAmbiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
New York Islanders
Expected starter unavailable.
Montréal Canadiens
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Semyon Varlamov
New York Islanders · Last start: Oct 27
3 / 4 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 69
- Save %
- 89.9
- Goals allowed
- 7
- Close-range shots %
- 40.6
Goalie name unavailable
Montréal Canadiens · Last start: Oct 27
4 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 97
- Save %
- 91.8
- Goals allowed
- 8
- Close-range shots %
- 28.9
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 20, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
New York Islanders
- xG for / game
- 2.86
- xG against / game
- 3.27
- xG differential / game
- -0.41
9 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Montréal Canadiens
- xG for / game
- 3.52
- xG against / game
- 3.15
- xG differential / game
- 0.37
9 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 20, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
New York Islanders
9 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 54.4
- Corsi share (%)
- 50.3
- Fenwick share (%)
- 49.6
- Faceoff win %
- 55.9
- Penalties / game
- 4.44
Shots / game: 25.2 · Shooting: 11.0% · Avg distance: 33.7 ft
Montréal Canadiens
9 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 61.9
- Corsi share (%)
- 53.9
- Fenwick share (%)
- 54.6
- Faceoff win %
- 52.4
- Penalties / game
- 5.44
Shots / game: 29.7 · Shooting: 9.7% · Avg distance: 33.1 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
NYI
|
Metric |
MTL
|
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Points | 16 |
| 0.583 | Points % | 0.667 |
| 36 | Goals for | 38 |
| 32 | Goals against | 36 |
| 4 | Goal differential | 2 |
| W1 | Current streak | W3 |
Road versus home
|
NYI road
|
Metric |
MTL home
|
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Games | 6 |
| 2 | Wins | 3 |
| 5 | Points | 7 |
| -4 | Goal differential | -3 |
Last 10 games
|
NYI
|
Metric |
MTL
|
|---|---|---|
| 5-3-2 | Record | 6-3-1 |
| 12 | Points | 13 |
| 29 | Goals for | 30 |
| 30 | Goals against | 28 |
| -1 | Goal differential | 2 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
NYI
5 wins
10
games reviewed
MTL
5 wins
Total goals30 – 35
Goal differential
-5
/
+5
Goals per game3.0 / 3.5
Shots per game31.6 / 27.4
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
New York Islanders
|
4 - 1 | 22 - 31 | View |
| Mar 21, 2026 |
New York Islanders
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
3 - 7 | 22 - 36 | View |
| Feb 26, 2026 |
New York Islanders
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
4 - 3 | 26 - 24 | View |
| Mar 20, 2025 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
New York Islanders
|
3 - 4 | 41 - 25 | View |
| Dec 3, 2024 |
New York Islanders
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
1 - 2 | 31 - 27 | View |
| Oct 19, 2024 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
New York Islanders
|
3 - 4 | 24 - 36 | View |
| Apr 11, 2024 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
New York Islanders
|
2 - 3 | 14 - 31 | View |
| Jan 25, 2024 |
New York Islanders
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
3 - 4 | 46 - 26 | View |
| Dec 16, 2023 |
New York Islanders
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
3 - 5 | 33 - 41 | View |
| Apr 12, 2023 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
New York Islanders
|
2 - 4 | 19 - 35 | View |