Away team
New York Islanders
33.7%
Fair American
+197
Fair decimal
2.97
New York Islanders vs Minnesota Wild prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 29, 2026
NHL matchup
New York Islanders at Minnesota Wild
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 29, 2026.
October 29, 2026
· 7:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Minnesota Wild at 66.3%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Minnesota Wild
66.3%
Fair American
-197
Fair decimal
1.51
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 29, 2026.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 5
- Record
- 3-2
- Net units
- -0.28
- ROI
- -5.6%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 2-5
- Net units
- -3.13
- ROI
- -44.8%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 3-0
- Net units
- 1.72
- ROI
- 57.4%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 6-1
- Net units
- 2.96
- ROI
- 42.3%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 5
- Record
- 3-2
- Net units
- 0.36
- ROI
- 7.3%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 9
- Record
- 7-2
- Net units
- 2.61
- ROI
- 29.0%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 29. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
New York Islanders
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
60:15 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 66 / 48
- Fenwick for / against
- 45 / 37
- Corsi share
- 57.9%
- Fenwick share
- 54.9%
- xG for / against
- 3.06 / 2.71
Defense pair
130:50 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 135 / 93
- Fenwick for / against
- 93 / 69
- Corsi share
- 59.2%
- Fenwick share
- 57.4%
- xG for / against
- 6.37 / 5.00
Minnesota Wild
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
122:56 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 156 / 79
- Fenwick for / against
- 120 / 63
- Corsi share
- 66.4%
- Fenwick share
- 65.6%
- xG for / against
- 9.91 / 4.10
Defense pair
95:18 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 126 / 62
- Fenwick for / against
- 98 / 42
- Corsi share
- 67.0%
- Fenwick share
- 70.0%
- xG for / against
- 7.48 / 3.46
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
New York Islanders
Ilya Sorokin
85.4%
Other eligible goalies
- Semyon Varlamov14.6%
Why Ilya Sorokin?
Top five influences
Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+0.805
Prev save pct
-0.392
Goalie win pct before
+0.375
Days since last start
+0.323
Started last game
+0.313
About these predictions
Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.
SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.
Updated Oct 28, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time
Minnesota Wild
Jesper Wallstedt
85.2%
Other eligible goalies
- Calvin Pickard14.8%
Why Jesper Wallstedt?
Top five influences
Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+1.313
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.519
Team win pct before
-0.329
Started last game
-0.270
Goalie win pct before
+0.237
About these predictions
Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.
SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.
Updated Oct 28, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Semyon Varlamov
New York Islanders · Last start: Oct 27
4 / 4 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 92
- Save %
- 89.1
- Goals allowed
- 10
- Close-range shots %
- 40.2
Jesper Wallstedt
Minnesota Wild · Last start: Oct 27
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 120
- Save %
- 92.5
- Goals allowed
- 9
- Close-range shots %
- 31.7
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 29, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
New York Islanders
- xG for / game
- 2.99
- xG against / game
- 3.38
- xG differential / game
- -0.39
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Minnesota Wild
- xG for / game
- 3.93
- xG against / game
- 2.71
- xG differential / game
- 1.21
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 29, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
New York Islanders
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 55.7
- Corsi share (%)
- 50.5
- Fenwick share (%)
- 50.3
- Faceoff win %
- 56.2
- Penalties / game
- 4.5
Shots / game: 25.5 · Shooting: 11.0% · Avg distance: 33.4 ft
Minnesota Wild
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 64.7
- Corsi share (%)
- 55.3
- Fenwick share (%)
- 57.8
- Faceoff win %
- 49.5
- Penalties / game
- 4.3
Shots / game: 32.1 · Shooting: 10.3% · Avg distance: 32.8 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
NYI
|
Metric |
MIN
|
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Points | 20 |
| 0.583 | Points % | 0.714 |
| 36 | Goals for | 44 |
| 32 | Goals against | 31 |
| 4 | Goal differential | 13 |
| W1 | Current streak | W3 |
Road versus home
|
NYI road
|
Metric |
MIN home
|
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Games | 4 |
| 2 | Wins | 4 |
| 5 | Points | 8 |
| -4 | Goal differential | 7 |
Last 10 games
|
NYI
|
Metric |
MIN
|
|---|---|---|
| 5-3-2 | Record | 7-2-1 |
| 12 | Points | 15 |
| 29 | Goals for | 33 |
| 30 | Goals against | 23 |
| -1 | Goal differential | 10 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
NYI
2 wins
10
games reviewed
MIN
8 wins
Total goals21 – 38
Goal differential
-17
/
+17
Goals per game2.1 / 3.8
Shots per game29.0 / 32.1
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 |
New York Islanders
at
Minnesota Wild
|
4 - 3 | 27 - 36 | View |
| Nov 7, 2025 |
Minnesota Wild
at
New York Islanders
|
5 - 2 | 26 - 27 | View |
| Apr 4, 2025 |
Minnesota Wild
at
New York Islanders
|
1 - 3 | 28 - 27 | View |
| Feb 8, 2025 |
New York Islanders
at
Minnesota Wild
|
3 - 6 | 35 - 33 | View |
| Jan 15, 2024 |
New York Islanders
at
Minnesota Wild
|
0 - 5 | 21 - 40 | View |
| Nov 7, 2023 |
Minnesota Wild
at
New York Islanders
|
4 - 2 | 31 - 29 | View |
| Feb 28, 2023 |
New York Islanders
at
Minnesota Wild
|
1 - 2 | 40 - 31 | View |
| Jan 12, 2023 |
Minnesota Wild
at
New York Islanders
|
3 - 1 | 36 - 20 | View |
| Jan 30, 2022 |
Minnesota Wild
at
New York Islanders
|
4 - 3 | 21 - 43 | View |
| Nov 7, 2021 |
New York Islanders
at
Minnesota Wild
|
2 - 5 | 21 - 39 | View |