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New York Islanders vs Dallas Stars prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 25, 2026

NHL matchup

New York Islanders at Dallas Stars

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 25, 2026.

October 25, 2026 · 5:00 PM CST
Away

New York Islanders

6-4-2

3
Final
Home

Dallas Stars

7-4-1

6 Model pick
Model V2 pick: Dallas Stars at 60.5% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

New York Islanders logo
Away team

New York Islanders

39.5%
Fair American +153
Fair decimal 2.53
Best market +166 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 37.6%
Edge +1.9%
Expected value +5.1%
Calculate value
Dallas Stars logo
Home team

Dallas Stars

60.5%
Fair American -153
Fair decimal 1.65
Best market -184 · MyBookie.ag
Market implied 64.8%
Edge -4.3%
Expected value -6.6%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 25, 2026.

Dallas Stars

All Model Picks

Bets
2
Record
1-1
Net units
-0.45
ROI
-22.5%

Value Picks

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Net units
0.00
ROI
—

Market Favourite

Bets
8
Record
5-3
Net units
0.01
ROI
0.1%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 25. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

New York Islanders

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

54:56 together · 8 games

xG share46.9%
Corsi for / against
51 / 56
Fenwick for / against
37 / 43
Corsi share
47.7%
Fenwick share
46.3%
xG for / against
2.96 / 3.35
Defense pair

112:25 together · 10 games

xG share59.7%
Corsi for / against
119 / 71
Fenwick for / against
81 / 53
Corsi share
62.6%
Fenwick share
60.4%
xG for / against
5.27 / 3.56
All observed combinations

Dallas Stars

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

53:13 together · 8 games

xG share74.6%
Corsi for / against
52 / 43
Fenwick for / against
36 / 23
Corsi share
54.7%
Fenwick share
61.0%
xG for / against
2.76 / 0.94
Defense pair

98:45 together · 10 games

xG share57.5%
Corsi for / against
100 / 75
Fenwick for / against
67 / 50
Corsi share
57.1%
Fenwick share
57.3%
xG for / against
3.89 / 2.88
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

New York Islanders

Ilya Sorokin 91.1%
Other eligible goalies

Why Ilya Sorokin?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+1.083
Goalie win pct before
+0.450
Days since last start
+0.424
Started last game
+0.304
Won previous appearance
+0.282
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 25, 5:01 AM Winnipeg time

Dallas Stars

Jake Oettinger 79.8%
Other eligible goalies

Why Jake Oettinger?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+1.176
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.419
Days since last start
+0.404
Consecutive starts
-0.272
Goalie win pct before
+0.259
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 25, 5:01 AM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Semyon Varlamov

New York Islanders · Last start: Oct 22

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
69
Save %
89.9
Goals allowed
7
Close-range shots %
40.6

Jake Oettinger

Dallas Stars · Last start: Oct 22

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
104
Save %
92.3
Goals allowed
8
Close-range shots %
31.7
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 25, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

New York Islanders

xG for / game
3.02
xG against / game
3.12
xG differential / game
-0.10

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Dallas Stars

xG for / game
3.21
xG against / game
2.62
xG differential / game
0.59

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 25, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

New York Islanders

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
56.4
Corsi share (%)
51.1
Fenwick share (%)
50.6
Faceoff win %
54.5
Penalties / game
4.6

Shots / game: 26.7 · Shooting: 10.9% · Avg distance: 33.5 ft

Dallas Stars

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
57.3
Corsi share (%)
53.0
Fenwick share (%)
54.2
Faceoff win %
57.1
Penalties / game
4.1

Shots / game: 26.7 · Shooting: 9.4% · Avg distance: 31.1 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
New York Islanders NYI
Metric
Dallas Stars DAL
14Points15
0.583Points %0.625
36Goals for33
32Goals against25
4Goal differential8
W1Current streakL1
Road versus home
New York Islanders NYI road
Metric
Dallas Stars DAL home
6Games7
2Wins4
5Points8
-4Goal differential1
Last 10 games
New York Islanders NYI
Metric
Dallas Stars DAL
5-3-2Record7-2-1
12Points15
29Goals for32
30Goals against19
-1Goal differential13
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

New York Islanders NYI 5 wins
10 games reviewed
Dallas Stars DAL 5 wins
Total goals23 – 26
Goal differential -3 / +3
Goals per game2.3 / 2.6
Shots per game27.7 / 32.2
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 26, 2026
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at New York Islanders New York Islanders
1 - 2 27 - 25 View
Nov 18, 2025
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
3 - 2 22 - 24 View
Feb 23, 2025
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at New York Islanders New York Islanders
4 - 3 29 - 37 View
Oct 12, 2024
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
0 - 3 34 - 27 View
Feb 26, 2024
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
3 - 2 28 - 32 View
Jan 21, 2024
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at New York Islanders New York Islanders
2 - 3 43 - 28 View
Jan 10, 2023
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at New York Islanders New York Islanders
2 - 1 26 - 28 View
Nov 19, 2022
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
2 - 5 29 - 35 View
Apr 5, 2022
New York Islanders New York Islanders at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
2 - 3 21 - 40 View
Mar 19, 2022
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at New York Islanders New York Islanders
2 - 4 39 - 25 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings NYI DAL