Away team
New York Islanders
32.3%
Fair American
+210
Fair decimal
3.1
New York Islanders vs Colorado Avalanche prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for December 16, 2026
NHL matchup
New York Islanders at Colorado Avalanche
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for December 16, 2026.
December 16, 2026
· 8:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Colorado Avalanche at 67.7%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Colorado Avalanche
67.7%
Fair American
-210
Fair decimal
1.48
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Dec 16, 2026.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 5
- Record
- 3-2
- Net units
- -0.28
- ROI
- -5.6%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 2-5
- Net units
- -3.13
- ROI
- -44.8%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 3-0
- Net units
- 1.72
- ROI
- 57.4%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 11
- Record
- 6-5
- Net units
- -1.47
- ROI
- -13.4%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 2-1
- Net units
- 0.68
- ROI
- 22.8%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 11
- Record
- 6-5
- Net units
- -1.47
- ROI
- -13.4%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 16. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
New York Islanders
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
60:15 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 66 / 48
- Fenwick for / against
- 45 / 37
- Corsi share
- 57.9%
- Fenwick share
- 54.9%
- xG for / against
- 3.06 / 2.71
Defense pair
130:50 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 135 / 93
- Fenwick for / against
- 93 / 69
- Corsi share
- 59.2%
- Fenwick share
- 57.4%
- xG for / against
- 6.37 / 5.00
Colorado Avalanche
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
73:49 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 84 / 81
- Fenwick for / against
- 68 / 60
- Corsi share
- 50.9%
- Fenwick share
- 53.1%
- xG for / against
- 4.78 / 4.36
Defense pair
104:07 together · 9 games
- Corsi for / against
- 134 / 93
- Fenwick for / against
- 95 / 73
- Corsi share
- 59.0%
- Fenwick share
- 56.5%
- xG for / against
- 6.11 / 4.54
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
New York Islanders
Expected starter unavailable.
Colorado Avalanche
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Semyon Varlamov
New York Islanders · Last start: Oct 27
4 / 4 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 92
- Save %
- 89.1
- Goals allowed
- 10
- Close-range shots %
- 40.2
Scott Wedgewood
Colorado Avalanche · Last start: Oct 25
4 / 4 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 126
- Save %
- 88.9
- Goals allowed
- 14
- Close-range shots %
- 27.0
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 16, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
New York Islanders
- xG for / game
- 2.99
- xG against / game
- 3.38
- xG differential / game
- -0.39
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Colorado Avalanche
- xG for / game
- 3.06
- xG against / game
- 2.88
- xG differential / game
- 0.18
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 16, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
New York Islanders
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 55.7
- Corsi share (%)
- 50.5
- Fenwick share (%)
- 50.3
- Faceoff win %
- 56.2
- Penalties / game
- 4.5
Shots / game: 25.5 · Shooting: 11.0% · Avg distance: 33.4 ft
Colorado Avalanche
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 61.7
- Corsi share (%)
- 51.5
- Fenwick share (%)
- 51.4
- Faceoff win %
- 46.2
- Penalties / game
- 3.9
Shots / game: 28.6 · Shooting: 12.2% · Avg distance: 32.9 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
NYI
|
Metric |
COL
|
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Points | 13 |
| 0.583 | Points % | 0.542 |
| 36 | Goals for | 49 |
| 32 | Goals against | 40 |
| 4 | Goal differential | 9 |
| W1 | Current streak | L1 |
Road versus home
|
NYI road
|
Metric |
COL home
|
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Games | 6 |
| 2 | Wins | 4 |
| 5 | Points | 9 |
| -4 | Goal differential | 11 |
Last 10 games
|
NYI
|
Metric |
COL
|
|---|---|---|
| 5-3-2 | Record | 4-5-1 |
| 12 | Points | 9 |
| 29 | Goals for | 35 |
| 30 | Goals against | 35 |
| -1 | Goal differential | 0 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
NYI
4 wins
10
games reviewed
COL
6 wins
Total goals38 – 38
Goal differential
0
/
0
Goals per game3.8 / 3.8
Shots per game32.7 / 38.4
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 |
Colorado Avalanche
at
New York Islanders
|
3 - 6 | 38 - 42 | View |
| Nov 16, 2025 |
New York Islanders
at
Colorado Avalanche
|
1 - 4 | 29 - 28 | View |
| Jan 28, 2025 |
Colorado Avalanche
at
New York Islanders
|
2 - 5 | 32 - 28 | View |
| Oct 14, 2024 |
New York Islanders
at
Colorado Avalanche
|
6 - 2 | 37 - 34 | View |
| Jan 2, 2024 |
New York Islanders
at
Colorado Avalanche
|
4 - 5 | 22 - 39 | View |
| Oct 24, 2023 |
Colorado Avalanche
at
New York Islanders
|
7 - 4 | 38 - 32 | View |
| Dec 19, 2022 |
New York Islanders
at
Colorado Avalanche
|
0 - 1 | 26 - 46 | View |
| Oct 29, 2022 |
Colorado Avalanche
at
New York Islanders
|
4 - 5 | 37 - 44 | View |
| Mar 7, 2022 |
Colorado Avalanche
at
New York Islanders
|
5 - 4 | 49 - 36 | View |
| Mar 1, 2022 |
New York Islanders
at
Colorado Avalanche
|
3 - 5 | 31 - 43 | View |