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Montréal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for September 29, 2026

NHL matchup

Montréal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for September 29, 2026.

September 29, 2026 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Montréal Canadiens

7-3-2

3 Model pick
Final
Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

7-6-2

2
Model V2 pick: Montréal Canadiens at 59.0% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Montréal Canadiens logo
Away team

Montréal Canadiens

59.0%
Fair American -144
Fair decimal 1.69
Best market -102 · DraftKings
Market implied 50.5%
Edge +8.5%
Expected value +16.8%
Calculate value
Toronto Maple Leafs logo
Home team

Toronto Maple Leafs

41.0%
Fair American +144
Fair decimal 2.44
Best market -104 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 51.0%
Edge -10.0%
Expected value -19.6%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Sep 29, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Sep 29. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Montréal Canadiens

No completed regular-season games in this window.

All observed combinations

Toronto Maple Leafs

No completed regular-season games in this window.

All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Sep 29, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Montréal Canadiens

xG unavailable.

0 / 0 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Toronto Maple Leafs

xG unavailable.

0 / 0 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Sep 29, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Montréal Canadiens MTL
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
16Points16
0.667Points %0.533
38Goals for56
36Goals against51
2Goal differential5
W3Current streakL2
Road versus home
Montréal Canadiens MTL road
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR home
6Games8
4Wins4
9Points9
5Goal differential-1
Last 10 games
Montréal Canadiens MTL
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
6-3-1Record5-4-1
13Points11
30Goals for42
28Goals against36
2Goal differential6
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Montréal Canadiens MTL 4 wins
10 games reviewed
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR 6 wins
Total goals21 – 28
Goal differential -7 / +7
Goals per game2.1 / 2.8
Shots per game28.2 / 29.5
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 10, 2026
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
1 - 3 18 - 33 View
Dec 6, 2025
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
2 - 1 34 - 23 View
Nov 22, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
2 - 5 26 - 29 View
Oct 8, 2025
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
2 - 5 31 - 27 View
Apr 12, 2025
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
0 - 1 15 - 35 View
Jan 18, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
7 - 3 34 - 35 View
Nov 9, 2024
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
1 - 4 21 - 27 View
Oct 9, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
0 - 1 48 - 27 View
Apr 6, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
4 - 2 30 - 26 View
Mar 9, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
3 - 2 27 - 31 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings MTL TOR