Montréal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for September 29, 2026

NHL matchup

Montréal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs

View the PlayerWON model prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for September 29, 2026.

September 29, 2026 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Montréal Canadiens

48-24-10
at
Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

32-36-14
Model favourite Montréal Canadiens at 57.6%
Prediction

Model versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Montréal Canadiens logo
Away team

Montréal Canadiens

57.6%
Fair American -136
Fair decimal 1.74
Best market -104 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 51.0%
Edge +6.6%
Expected value +13.0%
Calculate value
Toronto Maple Leafs logo
Home team

Toronto Maple Leafs

42.4%
Fair American +136
Fair decimal 2.36
Best market -110 · BetMGM
Market implied 52.4%
Edge -10.0%
Expected value -19.1%
Calculate value
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Montréal Canadiens MTL
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
106Points78
0.646Points %0.476
283Goals for253
256Goals against299
27Goal differential-46
L1Current streakL5
Road versus home
Montréal Canadiens MTL road
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR home
41Games41
24Wins18
56Points44
17Goal differential-10
Last 10 games
Montréal Canadiens MTL
Metric
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
7-3-0Record2-7-1
14Points5
28Goals for28
24Goals against47
4Goal differential-19
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Montréal Canadiens MTL 4 wins
10 games reviewed
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR 6 wins
Total goals21 – 28
Goal differential -7 / +7
Goals per game2.1 / 2.8
Shots per game28.2 / 29.5
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 10, 2026
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
1 - 3 18 - 33 View
Dec 6, 2025
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
2 - 1 34 - 23 View
Nov 22, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
2 - 5 26 - 29 View
Oct 8, 2025
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
2 - 5 31 - 27 View
Apr 12, 2025
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
0 - 1 15 - 35 View
Jan 18, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
7 - 3 34 - 35 View
Nov 9, 2024
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
1 - 4 21 - 27 View
Oct 9, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
0 - 1 48 - 27 View
Apr 6, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
4 - 2 30 - 26 View
Mar 9, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
3 - 2 27 - 31 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s machine-learning model, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings MTL TOR