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Montréal Canadiens vs St. Louis Blues prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 27, 2026

NHL matchup

Montréal Canadiens at St. Louis Blues

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 27, 2026.

October 27, 2026 · 7:00 PM CST
Away

Montréal Canadiens

6-3-2

47.9%
at
Home

St. Louis Blues

5-5-1

52.1% Model pick
Model V2 pick: St. Louis Blues at 52.1%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Montréal Canadiens logo
Away team

Montréal Canadiens

47.9%
Fair American +109
Fair decimal 2.09
Best market -105 · FanDuel
Market implied 51.2%
Edge -3.3%
Expected value -6.5%
Calculate value
St. Louis Blues logo
Home team

St. Louis Blues

52.1%
Fair American -109
Fair decimal 1.92
Best market -114 · FanDuel
Market implied 53.3%
Edge -1.2%
Expected value -2.2%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 27, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 27. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Montréal Canadiens

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

108:21 together · 10 games

xG share62.2%
Corsi for / against
165 / 82
Fenwick for / against
127 / 61
Corsi share
66.8%
Fenwick share
67.6%
xG for / against
7.88 / 4.78
All observed combinations

St. Louis Blues

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

113:14 together · 10 games

xG share49.2%
Corsi for / against
104 / 102
Fenwick for / against
75 / 86
Corsi share
50.5%
Fenwick share
46.6%
xG for / against
5.79 / 5.98
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Montréal Canadiens

Jacob Fowler 71.2%
Other eligible goalies

Why Jacob Fowler?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Started last game
-0.351
Won previous appearance
+0.304
Prev save pct
+0.292
Goalie team start share
+0.255
Goalie win pct before
+0.137
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 26, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

St. Louis Blues

Joel Hofer 85.2%
Other eligible goalies

Why Joel Hofer?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+0.861
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.437
Days since last start
+0.326
Started last game
-0.273
Team win pct before
+0.198
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 26, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Jacob Fowler

Montréal Canadiens · Last start: Oct 25

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
127
Save %
93.7
Goals allowed
8
Close-range shots %
27.6

Joel Hofer

St. Louis Blues · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
157
Save %
91.1
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
34.4
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 27, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Montréal Canadiens

xG for / game
3.47
xG against / game
3.11
xG differential / game
0.36

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

St. Louis Blues

xG for / game
2.90
xG against / game
2.82
xG differential / game
0.08

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 27, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Montréal Canadiens

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
62.6
Corsi share (%)
54.2
Fenwick share (%)
54.5
Faceoff win %
52.8
Penalties / game
5.5

Shots / game: 29.2 · Shooting: 10.6% · Avg distance: 33.2 ft

St. Louis Blues

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
54.5
Corsi share (%)
49.7
Fenwick share (%)
47.5
Faceoff win %
49.9
Penalties / game
2.9

Shots / game: 26.7 · Shooting: 11.6% · Avg distance: 31.9 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Montréal Canadiens MTL
Metric
St. Louis Blues STL
14Points11
0.636Points %0.500
36Goals for35
36Goals against35
0Goal differential0
W2Current streakL1
Road versus home
Montréal Canadiens MTL road
Metric
St. Louis Blues STL home
5Games5
3Wins3
7Points7
3Goal differential2
Last 10 games
Montréal Canadiens MTL
Metric
St. Louis Blues STL
5-3-2Record4-5-1
12Points9
33Goals for31
34Goals against35
-1Goal differential-4
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Montréal Canadiens MTL 4 wins
10 games reviewed
St. Louis Blues STL 6 wins
Total goals30 – 41
Goal differential -11 / +11
Goals per game3.0 / 4.1
Shots per game27.2 / 29.2
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Jan 3, 2026
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
0 - 2 25 - 19 View
Dec 7, 2025
St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
4 - 3 18 - 26 View
Mar 25, 2025
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
1 - 6 25 - 37 View
Oct 26, 2024
St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
2 - 5 31 - 26 View
Feb 11, 2024
St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
7 - 2 36 - 32 View
Nov 4, 2023
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
3 - 6 33 - 35 View
Jan 7, 2023
St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
4 - 5 22 - 27 View
Oct 29, 2022
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
7 - 4 25 - 30 View
Feb 17, 2022
St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
2 - 3 27 - 30 View
Dec 11, 2021
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
1 - 4 23 - 37 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings MTL STL