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Montréal Canadiens vs Philadelphia Flyers prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for February 22, 2027

NHL matchup

Montréal Canadiens at Philadelphia Flyers

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for February 22, 2027.

February 22, 2027 · 1:00 PM CST
Away

Montréal Canadiens

6-3-2

56.0% Model pick
at
Home

Philadelphia Flyers

3-7-3

44.0%
Model V2 pick: Montréal Canadiens at 56.0%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Montréal Canadiens logo
Away team

Montréal Canadiens

56.0%
Fair American -127
Fair decimal 1.79
Calculate value
Philadelphia Flyers logo
Home team

Philadelphia Flyers

44.0%
Fair American +127
Fair decimal 2.27
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Feb 22, 2027.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 22. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Montréal Canadiens

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

108:21 together · 10 games

xG share62.2%
Corsi for / against
165 / 82
Fenwick for / against
127 / 61
Corsi share
66.8%
Fenwick share
67.6%
xG for / against
7.88 / 4.78
All observed combinations

Philadelphia Flyers

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

49:44 together · 7 games

xG share61.4%
Corsi for / against
40 / 38
Fenwick for / against
22 / 25
Corsi share
51.3%
Fenwick share
46.8%
xG for / against
2.09 / 1.31
Defense pair

106:21 together · 7 games

xG share53.1%
Corsi for / against
96 / 92
Fenwick for / against
69 / 59
Corsi share
51.1%
Fenwick share
53.9%
xG for / against
4.34 / 3.84
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Jacob Fowler

Montréal Canadiens · Last start: Oct 25

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
127
Save %
93.7
Goals allowed
8
Close-range shots %
27.6

Joseph Woll

Philadelphia Flyers · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
134
Save %
88.8
Goals allowed
15
Close-range shots %
32.1
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 22, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Montréal Canadiens

xG for / game
3.47
xG against / game
3.11
xG differential / game
0.36

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Philadelphia Flyers

xG for / game
2.65
xG against / game
3.44
xG differential / game
-0.79

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 22, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Montréal Canadiens

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
62.6
Corsi share (%)
54.2
Fenwick share (%)
54.5
Faceoff win %
52.8
Penalties / game
5.5

Shots / game: 29.2 · Shooting: 10.6% · Avg distance: 33.2 ft

Philadelphia Flyers

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
50.2
Corsi share (%)
45.7
Fenwick share (%)
44.6
Faceoff win %
49.8
Penalties / game
4.2

Shots / game: 23.3 · Shooting: 8.6% · Avg distance: 31.2 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Montréal Canadiens MTL
Metric
Philadelphia Flyers PHI
14Points9
0.636Points %0.346
36Goals for24
36Goals against42
0Goal differential-18
W2Current streakL1
Road versus home
Montréal Canadiens MTL road
Metric
Philadelphia Flyers PHI home
5Games7
3Wins2
7Points6
3Goal differential-10
Last 10 games
Montréal Canadiens MTL
Metric
Philadelphia Flyers PHI
5-3-2Record3-6-1
12Points7
33Goals for20
34Goals against29
-1Goal differential-9
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Montréal Canadiens MTL 4 wins
10 games reviewed
Philadelphia Flyers PHI 6 wins
Total goals35 – 34
Goal differential +1 / -1
Goals per game3.5 / 3.4
Shots per game24.6 / 30.0
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Apr 14, 2026
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
2 - 4 29 - 25 View
Dec 16, 2025
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
4 - 1 21 - 22 View
Nov 4, 2025
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
5 - 4 42 - 20 View
Apr 5, 2025
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
2 - 3 24 - 26 View
Mar 27, 2025
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
4 - 6 30 - 30 View
Oct 27, 2024
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
4 - 3 24 - 26 View
Apr 9, 2024
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
3 - 9 36 - 30 View
Mar 28, 2024
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
1 - 4 30 - 17 View
Jan 10, 2024
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
2 - 3 19 - 39 View
Mar 28, 2023
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
2 - 3 29 - 27 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings MTL PHI