Forward trio
82:40 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 78 / 86
- Fenwick for / against
- 51 / 61
- Corsi share
- 47.6%
- Fenwick share
- 45.5%
- xG for / against
- 4.26 / 4.54
Montréal Canadiens vs Ottawa Senators prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 11, 2026
NHL matchup
Montréal Canadiens at Ottawa Senators
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 11, 2026.
March 11, 2026
· 6:30 PM CST
Model V2 prediction is not available yet for this game.
View final boxscore
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 11. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Montréal Canadiens
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Defense pair
119:23 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 83 / 147
- Fenwick for / against
- 56 / 113
- Corsi share
- 36.1%
- Fenwick share
- 33.1%
- xG for / against
- 3.68 / 7.92
Ottawa Senators
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
101:46 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 104 / 88
- Fenwick for / against
- 82 / 58
- Corsi share
- 54.2%
- Fenwick share
- 58.6%
- xG for / against
- 5.52 / 2.33
Defense pair
133:58 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 106 / 123
- Fenwick for / against
- 83 / 84
- Corsi share
- 46.3%
- Fenwick share
- 49.7%
- xG for / against
- 5.85 / 4.61
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Jakub Dobes
Montréal Canadiens · Last start: Mar 10
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 137
- Save %
- 88.3
- Goals allowed
- 16
- Close-range shots %
- 31.4
James Reimer
Ottawa Senators · Last start: Mar 9
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 88
- Save %
- 87.5
- Goals allowed
- 11
- Close-range shots %
- 28.4
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 11, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Montréal Canadiens
- xG for / game
- 3.40
- xG against / game
- 3.61
- xG differential / game
- -0.21
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Ottawa Senators
- xG for / game
- 3.56
- xG against / game
- 2.17
- xG differential / game
- 1.39
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 11, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Montréal Canadiens
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 56.8
- Corsi share (%)
- 46.7
- Fenwick share (%)
- 47.1
- Faceoff win %
- 54.5
- Penalties / game
- 3.6
Shots / game: 27.6 · Shooting: 16.3% · Avg distance: 32.7 ft
Ottawa Senators
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 60.4
- Corsi share (%)
- 54.8
- Fenwick share (%)
- 56.8
- Faceoff win %
- 51.0
- Penalties / game
- 3.8
Shots / game: 30.5 · Shooting: 11.5% · Avg distance: 31.8 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
MTL
|
Metric |
OTT
|
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Points | 16 |
| 0.636 | Points % | 0.667 |
| 36 | Goals for | 38 |
| 36 | Goals against | 34 |
| 0 | Goal differential | 4 |
| W2 | Current streak | W1 |
Road versus home
|
MTL road
|
Metric |
OTT home
|
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Games | 7 |
| 3 | Wins | 5 |
| 7 | Points | 10 |
| 3 | Goal differential | 1 |
Last 10 games
|
MTL
|
Metric |
OTT
|
|---|---|---|
| 5-3-2 | Record | 6-4-0 |
| 12 | Points | 12 |
| 33 | Goals for | 31 |
| 34 | Goals against | 31 |
| -1 | Goal differential | 0 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
MTL
5 wins
10
games reviewed
OTT
5 wins
Total goals36 – 39
Goal differential
-3
/
+3
Goals per game3.6 / 3.9
Shots per game24.7 / 30.0
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Ottawa Senators
|
6 - 5 | 19 - 34 | View |
| Dec 2, 2025 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
5 - 2 | 29 - 22 | View |
| Nov 1, 2025 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
3 - 4 | 17 - 27 | View |
| Apr 11, 2025 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Ottawa Senators
|
2 - 5 | 22 - 34 | View |
| Mar 18, 2025 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
3 - 6 | 25 - 33 | View |
| Feb 22, 2025 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Ottawa Senators
|
5 - 2 | 25 - 27 | View |
| Oct 12, 2024 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
1 - 4 | 25 - 26 | View |
| Apr 13, 2024 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Ottawa Senators
|
4 - 5 | 25 - 44 | View |
| Jan 23, 2024 |
Ottawa Senators
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
4 - 1 | 28 - 25 | View |
| Jan 18, 2024 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Ottawa Senators
|
2 - 6 | 23 - 37 | View |