Away team
Montréal Canadiens
42.5%
Fair American
+135
Fair decimal
2.35
Montréal Canadiens vs New York Rangers prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for November 16, 2026
NHL matchup
Montréal Canadiens at New York Rangers
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for November 16, 2026.
November 16, 2026
· 6:30 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
New York Rangers at 57.5%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
New York Rangers
57.5%
Fair American
-135
Fair decimal
1.74
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Nov 16, 2026.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 6-1
- Net units
- 3.39
- ROI
- 48.4%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 2-1
- Net units
- 0.83
- ROI
- 27.6%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 9
- Record
- 6-3
- Net units
- 1.39
- ROI
- 15.4%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 5
- Record
- 4-1
- Net units
- 2.21
- ROI
- 44.2%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 4
- Record
- 3-1
- Net units
- 2.41
- ROI
- 60.2%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 4-2
- Net units
- 0.60
- ROI
- 10.0%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 16. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Montréal Canadiens
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
89:23 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 107 / 48
- Fenwick for / against
- 75 / 38
- Corsi share
- 69.0%
- Fenwick share
- 66.4%
- xG for / against
- 5.82 / 1.98
Defense pair
113:21 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 167 / 83
- Fenwick for / against
- 132 / 61
- Corsi share
- 66.8%
- Fenwick share
- 68.4%
- xG for / against
- 8.36 / 4.82
New York Rangers
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
89:25 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 88 / 84
- Fenwick for / against
- 65 / 65
- Corsi share
- 51.2%
- Fenwick share
- 50.0%
- xG for / against
- 4.82 / 3.48
Defense pair
146:33 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 147 / 153
- Fenwick for / against
- 107 / 98
- Corsi share
- 49.0%
- Fenwick share
- 52.2%
- xG for / against
- 7.76 / 5.06
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Montréal Canadiens
Expected starter unavailable.
New York Rangers
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Jacob Fowler
Montréal Canadiens · Last start: Oct 27
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 143
- Save %
- 94.4
- Goals allowed
- 8
- Close-range shots %
- 33.6
James Reimer
New York Rangers · Last start: Oct 26
1 / 1 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 8
- Save %
- 62.5
- Goals allowed
- 3
- Close-range shots %
- 37.5
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 16, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Montréal Canadiens
- xG for / game
- 3.40
- xG against / game
- 3.23
- xG differential / game
- 0.17
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
New York Rangers
- xG for / game
- 3.27
- xG against / game
- 2.91
- xG differential / game
- 0.36
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 16, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Montréal Canadiens
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 60.6
- Corsi share (%)
- 52.1
- Fenwick share (%)
- 52.7
- Faceoff win %
- 51.3
- Penalties / game
- 5.2
Shots / game: 28.7 · Shooting: 9.8% · Avg distance: 33.9 ft
New York Rangers
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 54.8
- Corsi share (%)
- 49.0
- Fenwick share (%)
- 48.3
- Faceoff win %
- 54.2
- Penalties / game
- 3.8
Shots / game: 25.4 · Shooting: 13.0% · Avg distance: 29.6 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
MTL
|
Metric |
NYR
|
|---|---|---|
| 16 | Points | 15 |
| 0.667 | Points % | 0.536 |
| 38 | Goals for | 44 |
| 36 | Goals against | 42 |
| 2 | Goal differential | 2 |
| W3 | Current streak | L3 |
Road versus home
|
MTL road
|
Metric |
NYR home
|
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Games | 7 |
| 4 | Wins | 6 |
| 9 | Points | 12 |
| 5 | Goal differential | 16 |
Last 10 games
|
MTL
|
Metric |
NYR
|
|---|---|---|
| 6-3-1 | Record | 4-5-1 |
| 13 | Points | 9 |
| 30 | Goals for | 33 |
| 28 | Goals against | 36 |
| 2 | Goal differential | -3 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
MTL
3 wins
10
games reviewed
NYR
7 wins
Total goals33 – 45
Goal differential
-12
/
+12
Goals per game3.3 / 4.5
Shots per game27.4 / 33.3
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2026 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
New York Rangers
|
3 - 2 | 25 - 24 | View |
| Dec 13, 2025 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
New York Rangers
|
4 - 5 | 17 - 28 | View |
| Oct 18, 2025 |
New York Rangers
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
4 - 3 | 22 - 24 | View |
| Jan 19, 2025 |
New York Rangers
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
4 - 5 | 28 - 37 | View |
| Nov 30, 2024 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
New York Rangers
|
3 - 4 | 28 - 28 | View |
| Oct 22, 2024 |
New York Rangers
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
7 - 2 | 45 - 23 | View |
| Apr 7, 2024 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
New York Rangers
|
2 - 5 | 28 - 46 | View |
| Feb 15, 2024 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
New York Rangers
|
4 - 7 | 36 - 31 | View |
| Jan 6, 2024 |
New York Rangers
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
3 - 4 | 48 - 30 | View |
| Mar 9, 2023 |
New York Rangers
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
4 - 3 | 33 - 26 | View |