Away team
Montréal Canadiens
55.9%
Fair American
-127
Fair decimal
1.79
Montréal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for December 18, 2026
NHL matchup
Montréal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for December 18, 2026.
December 18, 2026
· 6:30 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Montréal Canadiens at 55.9%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Buffalo Sabres
44.1%
Fair American
+127
Fair decimal
2.27
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Dec 18, 2026.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 6-1
- Net units
- 3.39
- ROI
- 48.4%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 2-1
- Net units
- 0.83
- ROI
- 27.6%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 9
- Record
- 6-3
- Net units
- 1.39
- ROI
- 15.4%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 3-4
- Net units
- -1.66
- ROI
- -23.7%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 1-5
- Net units
- -4.07
- ROI
- -67.8%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 4
- Record
- 2-2
- Net units
- -0.62
- ROI
- -15.6%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 18. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Montréal Canadiens
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
82:28 together · 9 games
- Corsi for / against
- 99 / 45
- Fenwick for / against
- 71 / 35
- Corsi share
- 68.8%
- Fenwick share
- 67.0%
- xG for / against
- 5.26 / 1.88
Defense pair
108:21 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 165 / 82
- Fenwick for / against
- 127 / 61
- Corsi share
- 66.8%
- Fenwick share
- 67.6%
- xG for / against
- 7.88 / 4.78
Buffalo Sabres
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
103:15 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 117 / 54
- Fenwick for / against
- 81 / 41
- Corsi share
- 68.4%
- Fenwick share
- 66.4%
- xG for / against
- 6.30 / 2.72
Defense pair
81:19 together · 7 games
- Corsi for / against
- 72 / 59
- Fenwick for / against
- 50 / 42
- Corsi share
- 55.0%
- Fenwick share
- 54.3%
- xG for / against
- 3.23 / 2.92
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Montréal Canadiens
Expected starter unavailable.
Buffalo Sabres
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Jacob Fowler
Montréal Canadiens · Last start: Oct 25
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 127
- Save %
- 93.7
- Goals allowed
- 8
- Close-range shots %
- 27.6
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
Buffalo Sabres · Last start: Oct 24
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 163
- Save %
- 89.0
- Goals allowed
- 18
- Close-range shots %
- 40.5
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 18, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Montréal Canadiens
- xG for / game
- 3.47
- xG against / game
- 3.11
- xG differential / game
- 0.36
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Buffalo Sabres
- xG for / game
- 3.20
- xG against / game
- 3.55
- xG differential / game
- -0.35
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 18, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Montréal Canadiens
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 62.6
- Corsi share (%)
- 54.2
- Fenwick share (%)
- 54.5
- Faceoff win %
- 52.8
- Penalties / game
- 5.5
Shots / game: 29.2 · Shooting: 10.6% · Avg distance: 33.2 ft
Buffalo Sabres
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 56.8
- Corsi share (%)
- 51.0
- Fenwick share (%)
- 49.5
- Faceoff win %
- 48.2
- Penalties / game
- 4.2
Shots / game: 26.4 · Shooting: 10.6% · Avg distance: 30.6 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
MTL
|
Metric |
BUF
|
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Points | 11 |
| 0.636 | Points % | 0.500 |
| 36 | Goals for | 31 |
| 36 | Goals against | 41 |
| 0 | Goal differential | -10 |
| W2 | Current streak | OT1 |
Road versus home
|
MTL road
|
Metric |
BUF home
|
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Games | 6 |
| 3 | Wins | 3 |
| 7 | Points | 6 |
| 3 | Goal differential | -5 |
Last 10 games
|
MTL
|
Metric |
BUF
|
|---|---|---|
| 5-3-2 | Record | 4-3-3 |
| 12 | Points | 11 |
| 33 | Goals for | 28 |
| 34 | Goals against | 35 |
| -1 | Goal differential | -7 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
MTL
8 wins
10
games reviewed
BUF
2 wins
Total goals42 – 30
Goal differential
+12
/
-12
Goals per game4.2 / 3.0
Shots per game29.0 / 25.7
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
3 - 4 | 26 - 34 | View |
| Oct 13, 2026 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
3 - 4 | 17 - 38 | View |
| Jan 31, 2026 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
4 - 2 | 31 - 38 | View |
| Jan 22, 2026 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
4 - 2 | 17 - 34 | View |
| Jan 15, 2026 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
3 - 5 | 23 - 27 | View |
| Oct 20, 2025 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
2 - 4 | 32 - 31 | View |
| Mar 3, 2025 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
3 - 4 | 36 - 20 | View |
| Mar 1, 2025 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
4 - 2 | 29 - 25 | View |
| Dec 17, 2024 |
Buffalo Sabres
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
1 - 6 | 21 - 27 | View |
| Nov 11, 2024 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Buffalo Sabres
|
7 - 5 | 23 - 18 | View |