Away team
Montréal Canadiens
40.6%
Fair American
+146
Fair decimal
2.46
Montréal Canadiens vs Boston Bruins prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for November 12, 2026
NHL matchup
Montréal Canadiens at Boston Bruins
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for November 12, 2026.
November 12, 2026
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Boston Bruins at 59.4%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Boston Bruins
59.4%
Fair American
-146
Fair decimal
1.68
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Nov 12, 2026.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 6-1
- Net units
- 3.39
- ROI
- 48.4%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 2-1
- Net units
- 0.83
- ROI
- 27.6%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 9
- Record
- 6-3
- Net units
- 1.39
- ROI
- 15.4%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 6-2
- Net units
- 3.03
- ROI
- 37.9%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 4-4
- Net units
- -0.21
- ROI
- -2.6%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 6-0
- Net units
- 4.68
- ROI
- 78.1%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 12. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Montréal Canadiens
This selection is unavailable until complete validated shift records cover every selected game.
All observed combinations
Boston Bruins
This selection is unavailable until complete validated shift records cover every selected game.
All observed combinationsAmbiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Montréal Canadiens
Expected starter unavailable.
Boston Bruins
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Jacob Fowler
Montréal Canadiens · Last start: Oct 27
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 143
- Save %
- 94.4
- Goals allowed
- 8
- Close-range shots %
- 33.6
Jeremy Swayman
Boston Bruins · Last start: Oct 27
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 146
- Save %
- 91.1
- Goals allowed
- 13
- Close-range shots %
- 34.9
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 12, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Montréal Canadiens
- xG for / game
- 3.40
- xG against / game
- 3.23
- xG differential / game
- 0.17
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Boston Bruins
- xG for / game
- 3.22
- xG against / game
- 3.21
- xG differential / game
- 0.02
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 12, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Montréal Canadiens
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 60.6
- Corsi share (%)
- 52.1
- Fenwick share (%)
- 52.7
- Faceoff win %
- 51.3
- Penalties / game
- 5.2
Shots / game: 28.7 · Shooting: 9.8% · Avg distance: 33.9 ft
Boston Bruins
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 50.0
- Corsi share (%)
- 45.5
- Fenwick share (%)
- 46.7
- Faceoff win %
- 54.4
- Penalties / game
- 5.2
Shots / game: 25.0 · Shooting: 16.4% · Avg distance: 31.1 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
MTL
|
Metric |
BOS
|
|---|---|---|
| 16 | Points | 19 |
| 0.667 | Points % | 0.731 |
| 38 | Goals for | 49 |
| 36 | Goals against | 28 |
| 2 | Goal differential | 21 |
| W3 | Current streak | L1 |
Road versus home
|
MTL road
|
Metric |
BOS home
|
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Games | 6 |
| 4 | Wins | 5 |
| 9 | Points | 10 |
| 5 | Goal differential | 17 |
Last 10 games
|
MTL
|
Metric |
BOS
|
|---|---|---|
| 6-3-1 | Record | 7-2-1 |
| 13 | Points | 15 |
| 30 | Goals for | 41 |
| 28 | Goals against | 21 |
| 2 | Goal differential | 20 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
MTL
3 wins
10
games reviewed
BOS
7 wins
Total goals32 – 40
Goal differential
-8
/
+8
Goals per game3.2 / 4.0
Shots per game25.9 / 28.2
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 |
Boston Bruins
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
2 - 3 | 28 - 31 | View |
| Jan 24, 2026 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Boston Bruins
|
3 - 4 | 25 - 21 | View |
| Dec 23, 2025 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Boston Bruins
|
6 - 2 | 29 - 28 | View |
| Nov 15, 2025 |
Boston Bruins
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
3 - 2 | 23 - 28 | View |
| Apr 3, 2025 |
Boston Bruins
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
1 - 4 | 19 - 32 | View |
| Dec 1, 2024 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Boston Bruins
|
3 - 6 | 28 - 30 | View |
| Oct 10, 2024 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Boston Bruins
|
4 - 6 | 24 - 29 | View |
| Mar 14, 2024 |
Boston Bruins
at
Montréal Canadiens
|
2 - 1 | 24 - 19 | View |
| Jan 20, 2024 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Boston Bruins
|
4 - 9 | 21 - 36 | View |
| Nov 18, 2023 |
Montréal Canadiens
at
Boston Bruins
|
2 - 5 | 22 - 44 | View |