Away team
Minnesota Wild
47.9%
Fair American
+109
Fair decimal
2.09
Minnesota Wild vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for November 12, 2026
NHL matchup
Minnesota Wild at Toronto Maple Leafs
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for November 12, 2026.
November 12, 2026
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Toronto Maple Leafs at 52.1%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Toronto Maple Leafs
52.1%
Fair American
-109
Fair decimal
1.92
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Nov 12, 2026.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 6-1
- Net units
- 2.96
- ROI
- 42.3%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 5
- Record
- 3-2
- Net units
- 0.36
- ROI
- 7.3%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 9
- Record
- 7-2
- Net units
- 2.61
- ROI
- 29.0%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 4-4
- Net units
- 0.65
- ROI
- 8.2%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 5-2
- Net units
- 4.60
- ROI
- 65.8%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 2-4
- Net units
- -2.55
- ROI
- -42.5%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 12. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Minnesota Wild
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
122:28 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 150 / 75
- Fenwick for / against
- 116 / 59
- Corsi share
- 66.7%
- Fenwick share
- 66.3%
- xG for / against
- 9.98 / 3.91
Defense pair
95:23 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 119 / 65
- Fenwick for / against
- 93 / 44
- Corsi share
- 64.7%
- Fenwick share
- 67.9%
- xG for / against
- 7.35 / 3.54
Toronto Maple Leafs
This selection is unavailable until complete validated shift records cover every selected game.
All observed combinationsAmbiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Minnesota Wild
Expected starter unavailable.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Calvin Pickard
Minnesota Wild · Last start: Oct 25
2 / 2 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 42
- Save %
- 83.3
- Goals allowed
- 7
- Close-range shots %
- 23.8
Sergei Bobrovsky
Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Oct 26
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 142
- Save %
- 88.7
- Goals allowed
- 16
- Close-range shots %
- 25.4
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 12, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Minnesota Wild
- xG for / game
- 3.95
- xG against / game
- 2.76
- xG differential / game
- 1.20
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Toronto Maple Leafs
- xG for / game
- 3.03
- xG against / game
- 3.38
- xG differential / game
- -0.35
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 12, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Minnesota Wild
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 64.5
- Corsi share (%)
- 54.9
- Fenwick share (%)
- 57.4
- Faceoff win %
- 51.6
- Penalties / game
- 3.9
Shots / game: 32.7 · Shooting: 9.8% · Avg distance: 33.0 ft
Toronto Maple Leafs
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 51.3
- Corsi share (%)
- 44.0
- Fenwick share (%)
- 46.7
- Faceoff win %
- 52.7
- Penalties / game
- 4.9
Shots / game: 28.1 · Shooting: 14.6% · Avg distance: 34.1 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
MIN
|
Metric |
TOR
|
|---|---|---|
| 18 | Points | 16 |
| 0.692 | Points % | 0.571 |
| 41 | Goals for | 52 |
| 30 | Goals against | 46 |
| 11 | Goal differential | 6 |
| W2 | Current streak | L1 |
Road versus home
|
MIN road
|
Metric |
TOR home
|
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Games | 8 |
| 4 | Wins | 4 |
| 10 | Points | 9 |
| 4 | Goal differential | -1 |
Last 10 games
|
MIN
|
Metric |
TOR
|
|---|---|---|
| 6-3-1 | Record | 5-3-2 |
| 13 | Points | 12 |
| 32 | Goals for | 41 |
| 25 | Goals against | 35 |
| 7 | Goal differential | 6 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
MIN
4 wins
10
games reviewed
TOR
6 wins
Total goals29 – 32
Goal differential
-3
/
+3
Goals per game2.9 / 3.2
Shots per game32.5 / 29.4
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Minnesota Wild
|
4 - 2 | 26 - 38 | View |
| Jan 19, 2026 |
Minnesota Wild
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
6 - 3 | 38 - 30 | View |
| Jan 29, 2025 |
Minnesota Wild
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
3 - 1 | 25 - 33 | View |
| Nov 3, 2024 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Minnesota Wild
|
1 - 2 | 28 - 33 | View |
| Nov 19, 2023 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Minnesota Wild
|
4 - 3 | 25 - 36 | View |
| Oct 14, 2023 |
Minnesota Wild
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
4 - 7 | 32 - 33 | View |
| Feb 24, 2023 |
Minnesota Wild
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
1 - 2 | 25 - 24 | View |
| Nov 25, 2022 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Minnesota Wild
|
4 - 3 | 28 - 28 | View |
| Feb 24, 2022 |
Minnesota Wild
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
1 - 3 | 30 - 25 | View |
| Dec 4, 2021 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Minnesota Wild
|
3 - 4 | 42 - 40 | View |